Birchtree's Account Talk

[amoeba]

I'm patiently waiting with my toes resting on the rail - I'm sure the Grand Trunk will eventually pass this way. I need the Dow down less than 200 points and then'll throw good money after bad down the dark cold well. My small caps are saving me today - but the selling remains intense. There can't be that many scared fools out there.

Yeah - well, the birchtreedweller is swinging by his neck; your beloved I-fund is being dispatched at negative 4.5% at the moment today alone, and if you think S-fund is saving you - check again - both S and C-funds turned south, cliff-bound, in the last hour.

I just wonder what morsels of optimism you'll come up with when your trader's block puts you into double-digit negative territory.


I'm sure you are delighted, now that we're just about even on the autotracker.

 

[pmcint01]

Resting on the 3rd rail?

I'm patiently waiting with my toes resting on the rail - I'm sure the Grand Trunk will eventually pass this way. I need the Dow down less than 200 points and then'll throw good money after bad down the dark cold well. My small caps are saving me today - but the selling remains intense. There can't be that many scared fools out there.

 

[amoeba]

If we are currently placing a retest of yesterday then strengthen with a higher low - I'm a buyer big time. Until then I'm on the bench with considerable buying power waiting to see what happens with the French banks. All market rumors about French banks have been denide.

Unfortunately - you are 100% in equities in your TSP, that's not "the bench"; that's wet powder. Would you like another?

 

[Warrenlm]

Our Dennis has an Oceanic, a Gulfic, a Seaic, an Estuariac and FDIC savings to supplement his Tugboat.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I need the Dow down less than 200 points and then'll throw good money after bad down the dark cold well.

Well 16 mins left and DJIA down 450+

Don't think your 200 point limit is going to happen...

 

[Birchtree]

Yea, some days it just doesn't pay to even get out of bed. I'm exhausted at this point, but I'm trying to hold tight without doing any more selling. I'm safe until tomorrow and then we'll see if I have to scramble some more with my sacrificial lamb chop stocks. We are still above the previous intraday lows - but with this downside momentum it may not mean anything. But I look at that VIX and that tells me the situation is about to change.

 

[FAB1]

Not encouraging. F fund move would have pulled me further out of the hole, instead my fund gave up nearly all of yesterdays gains. Not good.

 

[Warrenlm]

Yea, some days it just doesn't pay to even get out of bed. I'm exhausted at this point, but I'm trying to hold tight without doing any more selling. I'm safe until tomorrow and then we'll see if I have to scramble some more with my sacrificial lamb chop stocks. We are still above the previous intraday lows - but with this downside momentum it may not mean anything. But I look at that VIX and that tells me the situation is about to change.

You're leaving us to go do analysis again. Some of us are ill equipped. What does the VIX tell you?

Another thing....ever hear how Caymanbrac12 is faring?

 

[Birchtree]

I wasn't gone long - I had to take my daily afternoon nap with my adviser, Mindylou. When ever the VIX gets to the current levels above 40 it has always been a good time to purchase equity assets. I'm down but not beat yet - if we get any kind of rebound tomorrow I'll be buying golden wall flowers. I'm down over a $1M so Caymanbrac 12 has to be down over $10M - I suspect we'll both hold our positions. So I say bring on the madness - today wasn't as bad as the last 512 point down day - that's progress.

 

[amoeba]

Ideas, anyone?

Yea, some days it just doesn't pay to even get out of bed. I'm exhausted at this point, but I'm trying to hold tight without doing any more selling. I'm safe until tomorrow and then we'll see if I have to scramble some more with my sacrificial lamb chop stocks. We are still above the previous intraday lows - but with this downside momentum it may not mean anything. But I look at that VIX and that tells me the situation is about to change.

We are? The close in your eternal-bliss I-fund was the low of the session, and just about matched monday's low.

You're right about one thing (it may not mean anything).....I have no idea how the world will get out of this latest mess anytime quick/soon.....there are no bullets in the chamber left for the Fed or other governments to use (i.e., stimuli) without further compromising debt-related ratings.

Ideas, anyone?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

Nice to hear from you amoeba - hope you can gain some experience from how I manage my money. So don't cry for me Argentina. My base remains intact and will be growing again soon enough, I have to remain patient. The I fund will heal it's wounds also - large cap is still the place to be. When you play in the market arena one can expect that there are many fools that make the wrong trading decisions and their stupidity deep in fear effects others that are more reasonable. So flush them out and we can move forward.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

We are? The close in your eternal-bliss I-fund was the low of the session, and just about matched monday's low.

You're right about one thing (it may not mean anything).....I have no idea how the world will get out of this latest mess anytime quick/soon.....there are no bullets in the chamber left for the Fed or other governments to use (i.e., stimuli) without further compromising debt-related ratings.

Ideas, anyone?

Careful dude, no need to go shaking your fist at the sky, just when you think there's no bullets left is about when you tend to get shot.

Idea #1, put it all in and forget about it
Idea #2, pull it all out and forget about it
Idea #3, forget about it

That's the only way it will work, it's like a wobbly top, you know the kind you play with as a kid? When it starts to lose momentum like that you got to pick it up and spin it all over again, or watch it get crushed.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/08/09/bolton-its-a-buying-opportunity/

 

[Happy_Trails]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

Careful dude, no need to go shaking your fist at the sky, just when you think there's no bullets left is about when you tend to get shot.

Idea #1, put it all in and forget about it
Idea #2, pull it all out and forget about it
Idea #3, forget about it

That's the only way it will work, it's like a wobbly top, you know the kind you play with as a kid? When it starts to lose momentum like that you got to pick it up and spin it all over again, or watch it get crushed.

Great post, Burrocrat.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

I'm a buyer today along with many insiders, buying happiness early: LNT, POL, MLI, CLI, C, OLN, KEX, HRS, SPN, CPX. I think I'll be back if the market holds.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

Well here we go again buying those precious wall flowers: LUB, CBG, MTOR, DLX, TREX, TITN, BMS, BYD, CMC. For newbies - don't try this at home - only kidding. I need to fetch a few more golden prices - these buys will really add to my base value.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

A message that I often repeat is that many investors miss the fact opportunity missed because of myopic loss aversion can be just as harmful to achieving investment objectives in the long term as money lost. Insiders are buying heavily and corporation may also be buying. Corporate stock buybacks in this cycle is already outpacing the incredible pace of 2003-2007 cycle. The cost of borrowing for these companies is to remain low through at least 2013. I've got to go and throw a few more dollars away into the market.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

Finally a day of comeuppance for enduring my pain - so I'm still accumulating wall flowers: CRI, EXP, FAF, FIS, CR, CSX, APL, HUN, BCS, EXH. I'm going to take a break for an hour or so - this buying stock is hard work. I'm looking for further strength during the day and if we get that I'm back into the market.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Ideas, anyone?

I've got 32 more buys on my list and if I had the courage of Audy Murphy I'd take 'em all right now - but I'll wait a little while before stepping back in. The money is available but I need more reassurance that I can keep my knees. Who ever sent the Army-Navy retractor, thankyou. It certainly came in handy.

 

[Cattman]

For Birchtree



Now that the bull has had 2 cool-offs in the past few days it's time to get this rocket ship headed back up for several days.