Birchtree's Account Talk

[Dutchy]

I took a very hard hit today but I handled it. Let's see what the Fed may come up with tomorrow to re-establish some form of stability. The selling has to be getting exhausted with 17 billion shares traded. Oil is now around $80.74 - that will translate into consumer income. The Dow P/E has to be in the 11 range which is pure value - I'm sticking with the large caps in my tugboat (TSP).

What you say makes logical sense Birch but the computer driven algos have no logic only computer selling according to their programs... I only hope that once we stabilize (when ever that is) it will cause the same computer driven buying on the way up??

 

[Atarrin]

I am grateful that my scheduled biweekly purchase into the TSP is COB today as opposed to start of business...

Thank you, Birch. I had to read this thread to help myself feel a little better about taking this drop on the chin.

 

[Boghie]

Time for me to bump my contributions - maxing them out now...

Spent the last two years paying down a lifetime of debt accumulation. I even still have some:nuts:.
Regardless, unlike "The Black Swan's" balance sheet, I now have cash flow.

While most likely not as tasty as 2008/9 it is a way of absorbing losses and accelerating on the bull

 

[Boghie]

Birch,

Me thinks the FED will wait this out. They will be more concerned about the bond markets than the equity markets. But, I think they will do very little.

Our problem is that Bernanke probably wanted to run QE1 on its own, let the market move a bit, maybe run a QE2, let the market adjust, and if necessary the Treasury could initiate a viable economic stimulus.

Instead, Bernanke initiated QE1 and President Black Swan figured that funding unemployed and bloated States would give a mighty boost to the ignit FED. Dope. All we have now is a cash flow problem. There ain't any assets to stimulate with. Anything else devalues things stupidly.

So, don't hold your breath tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

Let me see now, it looks like I'm back on the come back trail. These big drops really hurt when you are long. I managed so far to stay in front of a margin call but came within $24K but I had to sell $261K of stock on a potential bottom to do that. So I'll have profits I didn't want for this year, but now have some fire power to pick up some precious wall flowers. I'm probably a buyer most of the day as we rally - I'll worry about the retest of the bottom when it comes. By the way, my oceanic gave back -$310K yesterday on a Dow 634 drop and I gave back -$256K on a Dow drop of -512 points. Now I'll be working to get it all back and then some. As they say no pain no gain. My sacrificial lamb chop account functioned the way it was designed to.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Sticky pants with extra stickiness have definitely been in order the last few weeks. A rally is definitely a possibility but the futures have been so wacko the last few days, I'll believe it when I see it. Still holding long and strong but I can't add the snort like you, Birch.

 

[Birchtree]

The trouble may not be over yet - but I've got 5 more stocks sitting on the go button just in case. So I'm going to stand in front of the Grand Trunk and do some buying on a DCA basis into my oceanic account because these prices are golden and worth the risk to get them. Cramer says sit on the sidelines but that is not what a hardened contrarian does - now is the time to be aggressive in my opinion.

 

[MaStA]

The trouble may not be over yet - but I've got 5 more stocks sitting on the go button just in case. So I'm going to stand in front of the Grand Trunk and do some buying on a DCA basis into my oceanic account because these prices are golden and worth the risk to get them. Cramer says sit on the sidelines but that is not what a hardened contrarian does - now is the time to be aggressive in my opinion.

Birch, that is one thing about you, you're always aggresive in the stock market.

 

[Birchtree]

I've had 2629 views over the last 24 hours - are folks surrounding the gallows or just curious how a renegade contrarian tries to survive. Anyway welcome to all because I'm ready to rebuild some wealth the rest of the year. I'm going to be flat out running the rails - if it moves I'm a buyer, if it stinks I'm a buyer.

 

[Happy_Trails]

The trouble may not be over yet - but I've got 5 more stocks sitting on the go button just in case. So I'm going to stand in front of the Grand Trunk and do some buying on a DCA basis into my oceanic account because these prices are golden and worth the risk to get them. Cramer says sit on the sidelines but that is not what a hardened contrarian does - now is the time to be aggressive in my opinion.

I was just listening to Cramer and he's saying it's ok to sell the rally today, that it would just be an emotional rally with no substance until Europe figures out what is going to do. What do you think of that? Is any rally just emotional at this point?

 

[MaStA]

I've had 2629 views over the last 24 hours - are folks surrounding the gallows or just curious how a renegade contrarian tries to survive. Anyway welcome to all because I'm ready to rebuild some wealth the rest of the year. I'm going to be flat out running the rails - if it moves I'm a buyer, if it stinks I'm a buyer.

I just like joking around with people. I'm in the boat with you 100% Birch. I've lost all my gains and much more as a lot of us have. I'm waiting for some kind of rebound that will at least take me back to the neutral point or anything positive. The only thing I don't get is that you don't believe in the G fund. It seems like you buy and sell stocks a lot so to me I would look at the G Fund as if you were selling your stocks when you made your goal/target. Either way, it is your money and your account and you're always above me on the tracker so obviously I am wrong. Either way there are no hard feelings from me. Your page is one of the few I look at frequently.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Cramer - "if you're panicky, this may be a time to lighten up".

 

[Birchtree]

I don't listen to any wisdom from Cramer - so here comes the train and I'm buying: BAC, VCI, AGCO, CNH, HOS, RT, ZEP, GXP, GE, MTW. I got plenty of places to throw money and that's what I'm doing today. I think I'll go capture a few more wall flowers while I'm not being emotional throwing money away.

 

[Happy_Trails]

I don't listen to any wisdom from Cramer - so here comes the train and I'm buying: BAC, VCI, AGCO, CNH, HOS, RT, ZEP, GXP, GE, MTW. I got plenty of places to throw money and that's what I'm doing today. I think I'll go capture a few more wall flowers while I'm not being emotional throwing money away.

I agree with you on Cramer - his advice seems to change minute by minute.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm chasing that silly bull, Ferdinand, around the pasture and still buying: GLT, DY, DWA, DW, SXC, ANR, ACI, JRCC.

 

[Scout333]

I don't listen to any wisdom from Cramer - so here comes the train and I'm buying: BAC, VCI, AGCO, CNH, HOS, RT, ZEP, GXP, GE, MTW. I got plenty of places to throw money and that's what I'm doing today. I think I'll go capture a few more wall flowers while I'm not being emotional throwing money away.

BT, Saw you were buying Ruby Tuesday, Inc. stock. I used to work for Morrison, Inc. (the cafeteria company) who acquired RT in the early 1980's when RT only had 15 restaurants. At the time Morrison, Inc. was over 1/2 billion in sales and RT was just getting started. Morrison, Inc. financed RT's expansion. I met Sandy Beall, RT's founder during the acquisition process and I remember telling my boss that "we think we bought them but he thinks he acquired Us". Kind of like a minnow swallowing a whale. He later became CEO and sold off the rest of Morrison, Inc. Very smart and aggressive young man.

Also, Thoughts on Ford as a potential purchase?

 

[Birchtree]

Ford is on my list and I'll be buying it next. I remember reading a story about Morrison's restaurant in Tampa, Florida when they gave a year end bonus of $1K to their staff for each year worked. Some of those long term cooks did well that year. Buy the way I own a truck load of RT.

 

[Scout333]

Ford is on my list and I'll be buying it next. I remember reading a story about Morrison's restaurant in Tampa, Florida when they gave a year end bonus of $1K to their staff for each year worked. Some of those long term cooks did well that year. Buy the way I own a truck load of RT.

Morrison's was an interesting company. They had tray waiters in most of their cafeterias. There was a tray waiter in the Mobile,AL cafeteria (kind of a flag ship unit since it was close to their HQs) who took over organizing the other tray waiters and made sure they were neatly dressed, polite, etc. He learned all of the wealthy customers names and something about them and he always handled their trays personally. He did very well in tips. Always drove a new luxury auto and was a very spiffy dresser. One day, so the story goes, Morrison's CEO was in the cafeteria and pulled him aside and talked to him about becoming a cafeteria manager for the company. He asked the CEO what that job paid and when he found out he responded " No boss, I can't take that kind of cut in pay!"

 

[Birchtree]

That's classic. Still buying: AZZ, F, SVU, AA, CX, TRN, GMT, LPX. Now I'll rest for awhile and watch the action. So far the oceanic is very close to rebounding $100K - granted it ain't $303K but it helps.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm buying in front of Bernanke because I have lamb chop backup: IPI, GPX, MSB, HXL, SD, BWC. Let's see if we can hold onto a Dow +200 lock.