Birchtree's Account Talk

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I like Liz and I'm a long time cycle rider. I don't plan to cut and run - there is plenty of opportunity waiting for me in August. My porfolio needs to be fed with more DCA purchasing - I'm building income for the long term. I can't wait until I'm $3M in debt on margin - then it gets interesting to build wealth.
 
"The market averages have actually given an okay account of themselves. All of the averages are still in positive territory for the year. With our models in a positive mode, our advice for long term investors...is to stay fully invested." I'm doing exactly that. By the way when I reach a $3M margin debt I'll have a $6M long market value and a $3M equity position.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stick-with-stocks-veteran-letter-says-2011-07-28
 
Apparently Carl Icahn has bought a 9.8% position in my CMC (Commercial Metals) - that's interesting. He can buy as much as he likes.
 
Fear is finally picking up with the VIX at 25.02 +1.28 - friends that's a golden buying opportunity. And all I can do right now is spend dividend money.
 
I'm sitting back and holding the line on my long term strategy. Next week could be golden. This type of shrugging off of bad news reaction is typical of powerful major 3rd waves in Elliott Wave terms. Better days are ahead - no pain no gain.
 
Oh, and there is some good news. This morning the WSJ shows that I have another three dividend increase announcements - they're just giving me money. I believe I had two announcements yesterday but I didn't mention it not wanting to be braggadocio. Apparently corporate balance sheets are strong with excess cash.
 
Sometimes you simply have to close your eyes and hold your nose before you jump in - nothing wrong with throwing money away to catch a golden opportunity. I wouldn't mind if the market trades sideways into September when the truck backs up to dump around 75 dividend reinvestments - I'm making a short term sacrifice for longer term potential. I'm betting our secular mega trend bull market will make all wrongs right. Be right and sit tight. "A positive slope on the 200-day moving average does not mean the market will be easy to navigate, but it does mean the odds still favor bullish outcomes over bearish outcomes." A member once told me I could clear a room because I stunk so much - little did he know that was a compliment for a renegade contrarian - just doing what I do. Never let them see you cut and run - that creates even more fear.
 
During the last week of June my oceanic took in $243K - well that's gone this week. I wasn't going to spend it anyway. I know that market extremes, both in technical and sentiment terms can easily be erased by outsized swings to the opposite extreme. With this base building 1400 is just around the corner.
 
I don't feel bad about being on ice right now missing more flower power buying opportunities - afterall I did make 1576 dollar cost averaging purchases into my base account. I'd say I've done my job for now - other opportunities are coming. I'd like to set another goal of 1000 purchases in a year but I won't verbalize it. If it weren't for margin debt I wouldn't have come within $24K of making $2M off the March '09 lows - debt has its place if managed correctly.
 
Here is how the oceanic account performed this week: -$27K, -$52K, -$119K, -$23K, -$7K for a grand devaluation of $-228K. Good thing I have no plans to spend any of that money in the near future. I'm sure I'll gain it back as fast as it went out the window. I'm still waiting on the $2M mark now on week #126 of the March '09 low. Well I'm still ahead of week #121. The VIX at 25.83 +2.09 is sending out the contrarian buy signal - wish I had some money to buy but I'm on ice.
 
I am taping and gluing my sticky pants on because I do not know how much more of this I can take. They are getting pretty dirty by now. Maybe next week the lawyers and politicians will quit meddling with the market and it will continue on an upward trend.
 
It's a low down shame that I missed the 150 point down Dow but I was out doing my honey-do list. The Buick needed new shoes and a new battery - so while away from the market I figured I'd either be down $80K or up $80K and there wasn't anything I'm going to do about either occurence. But it looks like I came out OK.
 
So many fine folks moving into the S fund today - I hope they have an inordinate fear of taphophobia because that's what's going to happen to them. Lemmings into the quick sand. I'll stick with the large caps, thank you.
 
The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell from 1345 to 1292 last week. If it were to fall to 1250, the forward price/earnings multiple for the market would be at an attractive 12 times forward earnings - a level that has historically been marked by strong buying. The best opportunities could be in companies that can tap into the global economy which is growing faster than the domestic economy. C and I funds are the way to fly.
 
Birchtree said:
So many fine folks moving into the S fund today - I hope they have an inordinate fear of taphophobia because that's what's going to happen to them. Lemmings into the quick sand. I'll stick with the large caps, thank you.
Click to expand...

Birch, my friend. Your sitting all the way down at # 159 on the autotracker, your sitting in the stock market and you have blood all over yourself, you might just be feeling a little light headed perhaps from all the bloodloss so ill speak clearly and slowly. The winners (those guys between #'s 1 and 50) are winning for a reason and it ain't cus of the C and I funds. Now come on up and join us here in the S fund. O and one more thing, it probably would be ok if you actually sat on the sidelines every once in awhile when the knives start falling. :laugh:
 
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