Birchtree's Account Talk

Hey Birch. How did we get so close to each other on the Tracker? Good luck buddy, we need it. :)
 
"A positive slope on the 200-day moving average does not mean the market will be easy to navigate, but it does mean the odds still favor bullish outcomes over bearish outcomes."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21781/what-to-look-for-in-a-bearish-turn-for-stocks

I decided at the beginning of the year to try and not declare profits this year aside from uncontrolled buyouts. The primary reason for this is to have excess interest deductions to be carried into 2012 when I will need the interest to offset profits that I do plan to take. Here is a look at my 5 highest position amounts: $106K, $97K, $93K, $66K, and $60K. There are some nice profits hiding in there.
 
Bank Stocks... Hey BT, I know you like the bank/financial stocks for the long term. What do you think about adding some BAC and GS?
I'm thinking about picking up a few shares for 1-2 yrs down the road...
 
Now is the time to buy enough BAC shares to make it hurt some - housing starts were up nicely and if a housing rebound is coming BAC will be centered.
 
Bank Stocks... Hey BT, I know you like the bank/financial stocks for the long term. What do you think about adding some BAC and GS?
I'm thinking about picking up a few shares for 1-2 yrs down the road...
Hotwings, I have been waiting for you… I could not find a "Hotwings Account Talk"...Mind sharing your strategy on investing in Vanguard ETF’s in your IRA? Do you stay fully invested or keep some powder dry for dips, etc? Which Vanguard ETF’s do you like? Are you up or down YTD? By how much? Do you have to wait 3 business days to settle before buying again when you’re fully invested? Do you find Vanguard’s site easy to use? Do you buy any ETF’s that mimic the C, S, I, G and F funds? If so, what are they? If you rolled over a certain amount of your TSP into a traditional IRA each month would you invest any differently than you do now? I opened accounts with Vanguard and am rolling over a certain amount into a traditional and then over into a Roth monthly. I am taking Birchtree’s advice on “gentle rollovers” into the IRA and will buy ETF’s and a few dividend paying stocks. No margin accounts. Any info you care to share would be appreciated. Would appreciate hearing from anyone who would like to share their thoughts. Thanks.
 
Hey Mista,

I have been buying Vanguard ETFs for my IRA over the past few years along with a few individual stocks like AAPL, BAC, JPM, F and WFC. With that being said, I try to diversify by buying industrials (VIS) , Tech (VGT) , Agri (MOO), Materials (VAW) and a couple non Vanguard Energy ETFs like IEO, XOP and OIH. I'm pretty much a buy and hold investor, however, I'm going to sell my AAPL and tech ETF today and look to buy back in Sept when I feel it will be lower. Tech generally goes through a weak period in the Jul-Sep timeframe. Yes, I have to wait 3 days to settle with Vanguard but I only pay $2 per trade which is nice. I have sold and bought on the same day successfully as both transactions settled at the same time. I haven't bought any ETFs that mimic the TSP funds , however, if I were to, I would look into IVV, IJR and EFA. Lastly, based on my research to date, it doesn't pay for me to convert from traditional to roth at this time because I'm in a much higher tax bracket today than I would be later down the road. The great thing about Roth is that you can really stretch it out by passing it on to your kids without them having to be subj to minimum withdrawls like a traditional/TSP account. My account pretty much follows the market, when it's up, I'm up.... So far I'm up for the year and may take some off the table when we hit S&P 1400. Bottom line.... take the emotion out of your investments.... Buy good stocks/etfs and stick with them as the world economy is going to continue to grow. The pros/hedge fund mgrs want you to sell low and buy high!! That's how they make their money. Best of luck!
 
hotwings,

Such an excellent strategy - you are on your way to building wealth. I believe that an inherited Roth IRA still requires a minimum distribution based on the heir's life cycle. Because of the usual younger age the distribution is small and also tax free. With a good base in a Roth that produces income can last indefinitely into generations.
 
It's hard to believe that consumer sentiment is as low now as in March '09 - but I like it that way. I'm now at #250 on the tracker with a gain of 5.22%, but I'm not prepared to change my allocation from 20C and 80I. I've got plenty of time and things have a way of changing so I'll be patient while on the come back trail. It won't be long before I'll have access to wall flower buying power. If I were set right at my previous high in April the gain I made yesterday in the oceanic account would have provided me with $80K cash or $160K buying power - friends there are better days ahead when I can contemplate buying myself into happiness.
 
Hey Mista,

Yes, I have to wait 3 days to settle with Vanguard but I only pay $2 per trade which is nice. I have sold and bought on the same day successfully as both transactions settled at the same time.

Thanks for the reply. At this time, I pay $7.00 per trade for non-Vanguard products. Perhaps because I have a small balance. So, are you saying that if I am fully invested, I can sell a stock or ETF and immediately buy another without waiting (on the same day) as long as I don't obligate funds that were never in the account? On the other side, are you saying that I can buy and sell the same stock the same day, without waiting for settlement? So far, I have only bought VDE, VHT and SLV. Will add more during most months.
 
So, are you saying that if I am fully invested, I can sell a stock or ETF and immediately buy another without waiting (on the same day) as long as I don't obligate funds that were never in the account?
You can immediately buy a stock B with funds from the sale of stock A IF you the funds that purchased stock A have "settled" (3 business days).
So, if you purchased stock A on Monday and then sold it Thursday, you can now buy stock B. If you sold stock A on Wednesday, you would have to wait until Thursday to buy stock B.

Now, I am not an expert, this is just based on my experience dealing with 35+ ETF/stock trades over the last 3 months.

On the other side, are you saying that I can buy and sell the same stock the same day, without waiting for settlement?
Maybe, if you have settled funds to purchase it... (see above)
 
Looking back over my wall flower purchasing history from 7/31/09 to 7/31/10 was 948 wonderful buys. From 7/31/10 to 7/20/11 was 628 wonderful buys. Soon I'll have to start the process again and see how many wall flower purchases I can make into 2012. I know I'd like to be another $1M in debt - the more you're in the bigger the win. Of course I'm running in front of the interest rate train which can be costly on margin - but I plan to take some profits in 2012 to ease the burden. Now if the "Gang of Six" don't mess me up with limited deductions....we'll see. My simple plan is to get rich.
 
The beauty of the stock market is you have flexibility to declare profits when it's in your best interest. If you never want to take a capital gain and pass that stock on to an heir that gain is reset as a cost basis adjustment. It's known as a step up in basis. The built up capital gain passes tax free - for the moment anyway.
 
Nice kick save on the I fund yesterday. The paltry 10% I have there was enough to keep me in the green.
 
Nice kick save on the I fund yesterday. The paltry 10% I have there was enough to keep me in the green.

I was a bit surprised that as strong as the I fund was all day that the C & S funds didn't follow. I guess in a way they did. :suspicious:
 
Could today be another 200 point banger on the Dow, well why not. With the idea that Primary 3 is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks. The current uptrend should then be intermediate 3, of Major 3, of Primary 3. The mid-point, in wave structure, of the bull market. I may have the opportunity to make another $100K today since it's still early while the bear blood flows. The bull market will power higher as long as people don't start buying into it in droves and as long as the prevailing belief is that it's a cyclical bull within a secular bear. My friends, there is a great amount of evidence suggesting that the A/D line will not top simultaneously with price. So the time to be on guard will be when the major market averages make new highs, but the A/D line falls short. I suspect we now have another all time high on the A/D line of the NYSE. Snort. This omnipotent market is looking at something - perhaps the fall of Democrats in 2012.
 
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