Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I would anticipate that the HSNSI is now lower than the 24.8% from last week - fewer and fewer bullish. But that is what the bull wants. I keep thinking back that only several weeks back the NYAD line was making new all time highs. The world hasn't changed that much. This is just foolish selling by the inexperienced - it happens all the time.

 

[Birchtree]

Looking back I remember when in May 2010 I gave back $278K in a week and that was in the process of building this bull market - so all give backs will eventually return. The important thing is to remain disciplined and have courage to preserve my asset base. By the way that was week #61 off the March '09 lows. Too soon to cut and run then and too soon to cut and run now. Now if monetary policy acts with a lag we got much better days ahead.

 

[Birchtree]

"The 50 EMA of Advances-Declines is testing its key support zone from which intermediate term rallies have been initiated many times since March 2009."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/VINCENT.html

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/21281/the-3-stages-of-a-market-sell-off

 

[amoeba]

what comes before black tuesday? Exciting times.

answer: Monday and it could be next monday - which is not looking good right now - sentiment, futures, selling volume, and upcoming economic data.

There could be surprises, however. It remains to be seen how our forum members will react to a large move (~3% or more at the open).

Exciting times, aren't they?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Just to separate fact from fiction​

Of course, only you can put out the facts. I think your partisanship is showing too much again...

It's a spending problem... it really is THAT simple.

Exciting times, aren't they?

no :nuts:

 

[FAB1]

Re: what comes before black tuesday? Exciting times.

answer: Monday and it could be next monday - which is not looking good right now - sentiment, futures, selling volume, and upcoming economic data.

There could be surprises, however. It remains to be seen how our forum members will react to a large move (~3% or more at the open).

Exciting times, aren't they?

If we go up 3% I will grab that egg and sit on it - nearly 7% loss from my ytd high. I plumeted down the Tracker tonight as the "G" force is pushed upward by the bodies of the slain. lol.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what comes before black tuesday? Exciting times.

"In 2010 April-June those investors who sold out in the midst of all the negative blab in summer missed a terrific year for stocks." Birchtree caught every nickle.

"We see little evidence of weakening earnings estimates among the companies we hold."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/274392-if-analyst-estimates-are-correct-stocks-are-a-buy

 

[Birchtree]

http://dshort/articles/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: what comes before black tuesday? Exciting times.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/274401-s-p-500-the-sixth-consecutive-weekly-loss

 

[Valkyrie]

A stockbroker was selling a stock to Mr. Jones, a client. "I think this one will really move," said the broker, "it's only $1 a share."
"Buy me 1,000 shares," said Jones. The next day the stock was at $2.
Mr. Jones called the broker and said, "You were right! Buy me 5000 more shares." The next day Mr. Jones looked in the paper and the stock was at $4.
Mr. Jones ran to the phone and called the broker. "Buy me 10,000 more shares," said Mr. Jones. "Great," said the broker.
The next day when Mr. Jones looked in the paper the stock was at $9. Seeing what a great profit he had in just a few days, he phoned and told the broker, "Sell all my shares."
The broker said, "To whom? You were the only one buying that stock."

http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/07/02/buy-and-hold-is-dead-and-gone/
“Proof of the fallacy of buy-and-hold as a strategy is easy enough to find. In the 1929 crash and its aftermath the market lost 86% of its value and did not get back to its 1929 level until 1955, twenty-six years later. That was 26 years of waiting for buy and hold investors (if there still were any) for the market to ‘come back’.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Warren Buffet even said its a disgrace that he pays a lower tax rate on his billions in "income" than his secretary does.

He has the luxury to say that, do you?

 

[Birchtree]

I have 14 dividends due today - so weaker pricing is fine with me. I'm still a bull because it's not unusual for the market to digest its gains. The 50 EMA of the A/D line is testing its key support zone from which intermediate term rallies have been initiated many times since March 2009 - so I'll continue to DCA into my base. I'm reminded that the rich get richer because they continue to do things that make them rich.

 

[Birchtree]

"My strategy is simple, in a bull market the further the stock indices deviate from its peak the more inclined I am to accumulate stocks."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28641.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Price-wise, a drop to around 1250 could mark the base, at dual support. But we should also allow for a fake-out overshoot and subsequent reversal as the market loves to deceive."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28642.html

 

[Geaux4it]

I refuse to look at my loses. To late to get weak kneed now.

Question is, how much of a correction is this and how long will it take to recoup loses?

Think I need a good stiff drink and a trip to Nawlins to see the witch lady.

-Geaux

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Question is, how much of a correction is this and how long will it take to recoup loses?

If anyone knew this, they would be rich when it was done. There are a ton of different ideas (aka speculation) out there... We (I am looking at a 10-12% loss so far) are all in this for the long haul and for those of us who were fully in the market, only time will tell...

 

[Geaux4it]

If anyone knew this, they would be rich when it was done. There are a ton of different ideas (aka speculation) out there... We (I am looking at a 10-12% loss so far) are all in this for the long haul and for those of us who were fully in the market, only time will tell...

My question was more of a rhetorical one... But it would be nice to know.

I'm in the market with you, up to my eye balls as a matter of fact.

I am retiring in 2016 and am not looking back. I can stomach the pain, and whistle while I work.

-Geaux

 

[Birchtree]

We currently have experienced a 7.5% consolidation - 9% may be the max. Or we may already have put in the bottom.

 

[Birchtree]

"This would suggest the market has been consolidating before it enters Major wave 3. Normally, this is a quite bullish pattern."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28646.html

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28658.html