Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Mindylou is the manager - I just follow instructions. This Birchtree 300 fund is my freedom during retirement. And yes I'm having fun with this bull market and plan to make even more money now that I can devote the necessary time to play the game.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

huummmmm, huummmmm

 

[Birchtree]

Historically, April is the best month of the year. I'm hoping history will repeat like in April 1999 first month to ever gain 1000 points - so I'm buying just in case. Adding to my wall flower bouquet: RJF, TWIN, PXP, VMC, DCIX, AOL, KEG.

 

[jpcavin]

Birch,
Help me do some math here to arrive at a decision....

3/14 Bought 100% S shares at 21.89
3/18 Sold 50% S shares at 21.75 (yeah, I screwed up)
3/18 Bought 50% I shares at 19.89

What price should I be looking at to get out of I or S or both and get into C?

I have about 20 years to go before I consider taking anything out of TSP and prefer to accumulate C shares. Maybe dabble a small % in I or S once in a while.

Thanks

 

[Birchtree]

Judy,

If you are interested in going 100% C from your current positions I wouldn't rush the move - wait until April 29 and then make your move to the C fund. Prices of all three funds will be higher but that doesn't matter if you are concerned about accumulating the C fund. That doesn't fully answer your question but I'm going to move 20% off my I fund position when the price goes over $21.50 into the C fund. Evenyually I want to be 40C/20S/40I and then eliminate my 20% S fund into C fund. I take the slower approach because of the money involved.

 

[Birchtree]

A little intraday softness is purrfect for some Spring wall flower shopping: IPI, BPO, MTG, JAG, MYE, GSM, NX, BTH. I still have some dollars left so I may return again to satisfy my greed factor - all in to win. There's a strong possibility that April may rock.

 

[jpcavin]

Judy,

If you are interested in going 100% C from your current positions I wouldn't rush the move - wait until April 29 and then make your move to the C fund. Prices of all three funds will be higher but that doesn't matter if you are concerned about accumulating the C fund. That doesn't fully answer your question but I'm going to move 20% off my I fund position when the price goes over $21.50 into the C fund. Evenyually I want to be 40C/20S/40I and then eliminate my 20% S fund into C fund. I take the slower approach because of the money involved.

Well, part of what's bothering me at the moment is that I am 50/50 S/I and one seems to cancel out the other. No better than being in G. Would prefer to raise the allocation of S or I until the right time to move to C. Just don't know which of the two is best right now. I expect that the dollar will drop and "I" will be the better choice but could be a while before that happens.

 

[Birchtree]

The I fund is active today with the weak dollar. I'd still be patient and let April play out - but it's your money. I have a preference to stay low end with the S fund - my contrarian nature I guess.

 

[jpcavin]

The I fund is active today with the weak dollar. I'd still be patient and let April play out - but it's your money. I have a preference to stay low end with the S fund - my contrarian nature I guess.

Thanks Dennis. Just needed your opinion to tame my impatient nature.
Will wait April out.

 

[Birchtree]

A few more flower power purchases: ETH, PVA, GLW, BAS. I'm doing my best to keep this secular bull going. I think we'll get over SPX 1337 before the close. We are in a mega trend secular bull market and I'm riding all the way to Dow 17,000. Mergers and acqusitions are about to boom.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/chicago-fed-midwest-manufacturing-is-still-robust

 

[jpcavin]

Seabiscuit? Are you kidding me? ROFLMAO:laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[Mcqlives]

Did you read up on the transports...trans oceanic is going crazy!

 

[GUCHI]

Well, part of what's bothering me at the moment is that I am 50/50 S/I and one seems to cancel out the other. No better than being in G. Would prefer to raise the allocation of S or I until the right time to move to C. Just don't know which of the two is best right now. I expect that the dollar will drop and "I" will be the better choice but could be a while before that happens.

bt
i saw where you suggested waiting till april 27th before making the move to C fund. i was considering moving in 40% into s fund and let it roll. for me if i'm looking to stay in s fund for awhile why not chase the train?
thanks
john

 

[Birchtree]

My oceanic account actually lost some value today because my energy positions are in a profit taking mode - it won't last long though. Most MB folks are not as bullish as I am but that provides me some comfort. Our current rally from the March '09 low is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So far we're up 96%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. My incentive is to max out my opportunity and gather up a solid income base and ride the hell out of this secular bull. A Dow of 17,000 would have me ahead more than several million dollars from my current level of long market value at $4M. Let the bull rip'em all a new one.

 

[FAB1]

Well Congrats BT for sticking it out in the I fund you got rewarded today, at least got back some of those losses earlier.

Tomorrow, I think is the S funds "turn", here's hoping!

 

[Birchtree]

They still apparently held back with the FV concept - but I still think it's the place to be going forward.

 

[FAB1]

They still apparently held back with the FV concept - but I still think it's the place to be going forward.

Aww, yeah I see cuz Tom has the latest prices up.

Well looks like we have about 15 Garage sitters that should be easy pickins
for both of us if we get a nice +1% boost before weeks end.

 

[WorkFE]

They still apparently held back with the FV concept - but I still think it's the place to be going forward.

It sure seems that way but then again sometimes that is our saving grace the next day.

 

[Birchtree]

"The Great 2007-2009 Bear Market never happened. It instead was a correction within an ongoing bull market." My sentiments exactly as previously noted.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-big-change-of-heart-2011-04-07