Birchtree's Account Talk

[Elgallo]

And they have nine lives too!

Just picture yourself sitting there with the WSJ, just you and Bob. Lay the paper in front of him - where does his paw land?

Buy it.

Another method would be to do like they do at the Ducks Unlimited Banquets with the duck walking around a cage lined with paper with grids on it, and where ever the you know what lands wins!

 

[jpcavin]

http://pragcap.com/leverage-concentration-and-illiquidity

Great article. This is why I am studying and asking questions.

 

[Afishegg]

Hear that S train roarin down the tracks yall? Don't even try to get on now, as it is moving way too fast and the minute you get on it'll slam on the brakes and send you hurtling back towards the ground. I think the rides almost over myself and am just looking for a soft patch of ground to land on so I can bail......:nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

I like most anything energy related or industrial related to manufacturing. I like most anything that stinks in the financial sector to include mortgage brokers. I recently bought some MTG. Mindylou happens to like ODC which is Oil Dri - a cat litter maker. I'm buying regional banks and home builders as well as building related materials. A lot of wood PCL is being exported to China.

You are 'The one and only'.

I just made you the richest man in the entire Universe



Now time to get a coke and just relax

 

[WorkFE]

I think the rides almost over myself and am just looking for a soft patch of ground to land on so I can bail......:nuts:

Na, hold on for another 6 months. minimum.

 

[Birchtree]

The Japanese Yen may have finally made a significant, long term top (and a bottom for Dollar Yen) and if it breaks out soon it may signify a resumption of the carry trade, which would mean that another major liquidity stream is coming online to power the stock market rally even higher."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/steven-vincent/bullbear-market-report-2-15-11

 

[Birchtree]

All my small cap gains today from my oceanic account went directly into my flower pot. The same will happen tomorrow if there is another rally - even so if we were to consolidate some my flower pot gains don't shrink. So I'll be buying once again no matter the days type of activity. I'm waiting for a little blood letting from the S funders - that will change leadership on the tracker.

"The breadth readings of the stock market are in agreement with the breadth readings of the economy as the bulk of economic indicators are rising (84.75%) and as long as breadth remains healthy the stock market should continue to rise and the economy should continue to expand in short, the bulls have the reins for now. As the market bottomed in '09, the advance decline also bottomed and has not looked back."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/bull-or-bear-market-ahead

 

[amoeba]

I'm still all in, for now.

I'm waiting for a little blood letting from the S funders - that will change leadership on the tracker.

"The breadth readings of the stock market are in agreement with the breadth readings of the economy as the bulk of economic indicators are rising (84.75%) and as long as breadth remains healthy the stock market should continue to rise and the economy should continue to expand in short, the bulls have the reins for now. As the market bottomed in '09, the advance decline also bottomed and has not looked back."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/bull-or-bear-market-ahead

Ummm - number of economic indicators, eh, like they are all the same value? and do people pay attention to them, even if they are of value? like home prices/equity, or job creation. Yaaahhhh, I have an economic indicator, and it's called QE ad nauseum. It's alot more emotion than it is common sense.

As far as the blood-letting of S-fund, like I said recently, there is room to go up; and picking the entry point is just like picking the pause or exit. If anything, all our funds will go down together......if they do at all......and I don't think it's going to be a shock-the-conscience type of multidigit decline.

There's alot of bullishness, there's gonna be a light trade tomorrow and monday (tho today's and this week's volume hasn't been bad), so next tuesday could result in some more excitement than this boring 2%/wk increase. Let's have a 4% up day or something like that.

 

[Birchtree]

If I could be so fortunate as to pamper a $21K gain today in my oceanic account I'll have a $100K gain on the week - I have my doubts I'll get there but no matter. I'm busy buying those lovely wall flowers helping the bull by feeding him: HUN, KOP, TEN, VHI, VMC, MTW, LZB. Many seem to continue to disbelieve this rally and that's classic. We'll get a bump that will keep them on the sidelines - just what the bull likes.

 

[FAB1]

The Japanese Yen may have finally made a significant, long term top (and a bottom for Dollar Yen) and if it breaks out soon it may signify a resumption of the carry trade, which would mean that another major liquidity stream is coming online to power the stock market rally even higher."

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/steven-vincent/bullbear-market-report-2-15-11

And lets not forget, from the same page:

There are some technical considerations which suggest a minor top may be due sometime soon. The worst case of the likely scenarios is a correction akin to the August 2010 decline. The likelihood of a top to this run resulting in a resumption of the bear market is low, but as always we must keep our minds open to the possibilities and keep one eye on the mouth of the bear cave.

Wise Words, indeed!

 

[Birchtree]

I'm still buying more wall flowers for happiness: GGC, TEX, AHD, SPN, BXS, TKR, RES, RDC, EXH, RPM, SE. Right now I could just sit back, put my feet up and just ride this bull train, but that would be boring. I'm going to keep buying all the way to the top five years out from now - I should be tired by then. But I'll be sitting out by the lake.

 

[nguyensv]

where do you get all this money to keep buying?...

 

[jpcavin]

I thought DCA'ing was by making purchases at periodic intervals. You seem to be buying flowers every 24 hours. MindyLou is mighty powerful! :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

I'm married to a banker - no not really. I'm using my unrealized gains from my margin account, that way I don't have to take profits to buy more stock. I'm basically dollar cost averaging into individual stocks that make up the base of the Birchtree 300 fund. If what I buy today is more expensive come Tuesday I've made money on that purchase which then adds to my flower power pot gains. I realize that the market is going to back up some and that is the risk I'll absorb - but I get to reinvest dividends when I'm quiet. The more I'm in the more I can win and right now this bull ride is wonderful. And I'm thinking this secular bull run is going to last for years - thus I have no idea how much money I'll make but it will be sustantial. I have been waiting years for this generational opportunity to make profits and now I'm available 24/7 to charge forward at full speed while the sun is shining.

 

[jpcavin]

I'm using my unrealized gains from my margin account, that way I don't have to take profits to buy more stock. QUOTE]

I can't compute this information. Can you break it down for me?

 

[Birchtree]

Margin provides a loan against unrealized profits used as collateral to buy more stock. The margin folks charge an intetrest rate that also happens to be tax deductable. I use this interest charge to off set the tax on my dividend income. The risk is that one is subject to a margin call when the market reverses into a prolonged bear phase - they want either more collateral or you are forced to sell stock to meet their margin requirements. To meet this possible unpleasant need I have built myself a sacrificial lamb chop account that I can sell without emotion on very short notice. So I'm playing a dangerous game but I am liquid enough to avoid potential trouble if it arrives - but in a bull market the odds are in my favor that I'm headed toward wealth.

 

[nasa1974]

Birch has a TSP account and he is invested in about 300 seperate stocks. That is his play fund. This is what he talks about all the time. His TSP is just for show. :nuts:

 

[jpcavin]

Nasa
I knew about the two accounts, just wasn't up to speed on the term "margin".

Birch
Thanks for the explanation. I understand now. Is TSP your sacrificial lamb chop?

 

[Birchtree]

My sacrificial lamb chop account is inside my oceanic account - it has nothing to do with my tugboat account (TSP). Every time you sell a stock it has to be accounted for on schedule D - this way I don't have to sell until I'm really ready. My hope is that I can get away without any selling this year and just keep riding Ferdinand all year. If it's 1995 all over again I'll be fine. The advantage of movement in TSP is there is no troublesome paper work or IRS scrutiny. The same is true of a traditional IRA or Roth - no paper work.

 

[Birchtree]

I remember the classic line from the first Superman movie. When Louise Lane says well Superman just how big are you. I'm expecting the next question: I'm holding a long market value of $4M. That's how much I've got working for me in my oceanic account to the upside but it will also work against me on the downside during a blindside. Preparation is really the saving grace - thus the lamb chop account.