Birchtree's Account Talk

[SWAVET]

It's hurt from #7 drop all the way down to #124, but I'm get back a little bit to top 50 for the rest of the month.

 

[Birchtree]

There goes my dream of a 1995 mirror. But there is still the wisdom from Norman Fosback who is expecting that stocks will gain about 22% in the next 12 months, and he thinks they'll average 11% annualized over the next five years. However a 60% gain like 1995 would have been sweet. But then again one day may not ruin my dream.

 

[Steadygain]

How's Mindy Lou holding out -- with all the fear and anxiety bombaring the population?

Is she doing OK?


Sometimes I wonder about her Birch? This stuff may be getting old for her.



Well snuggle up with her a little bit and say, 'Mandy, Steady loves you'.

BUT -- you've got to tell her that in the sweetest voice and make sure she's really relaxed. Rub around her neck and pet her a bit. Make her think you're going to stay there an hour or so....


Have a great weekend ....

...lots to catch up on

 

[Birchtree]

It looks like the S fund is due for another $0.47 hit. They never said it would be easy. Who knows what the I fund will settle out at.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm inclined to believe this sell off is over done. Since 1940 there has never been more than one 10% (or more) correction in an ongoing bull market. We'll see if that holds true this time around considering we already had a 16% correction last April'10. Although I really hate to give up on my 1995 dream. Ferdinand knows I'm still a friendly bull.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm thinking sacrifice time and I'll have the weekend to consider a strategy. On the close today big institutional money was buying coal and my MEE ran to $57.23 and has a 52 week high of 58.47. I have a very very healthy profit in this company. There apparently is a buyout going on. So there may not be much gain left to make and I have a full list of wall flowers that just got cheaper - if we continue to drift downward I may sell the MEE and redistribute the cash into my wall flowers. I see this as a good opportune buying time. So this is one of those times when I can step up and take my profit because I have other things to buy and they may even get cheaper. If we blast up strongly on Monday I'll wait until my buying power is rebuilt and then do my buying. I don't have to have the cheapest prices today because I'll be buying this secular bull for years.

 

[FAB1]

They say this is good for skinned-knees.

Stings a little.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm still thinking about my MEE (Massey Energy) position which at $57.23 is worth $80.4K and there is a profit of $23K built up. The only problem is it's all short term gains. That would be another sacrifice but I certainly can spend the $80K on my wall flowers if this market continues to drift lower over the next several weeks. I wish I were more prescient because I'm sure I'll leave money on the table. I don't really want to sell my MEE but the greed factor is evident to continue building income into my base for the future. So let's have a resumption of the bull to save me from making a possible short term mistake. I mean I have other candidates that I could sell but why should I do that.

 

[Birchtree]

"As recent corporate events illustrate, not only does good earnings news move the market, but, increasingly, dividend news is moving share prices. In fact, the cash hoard among many large, brand-name companies is growing and investors can expect much more news related to increased dividends and share buybacks. Over the next several years I think that large cap, higher-dividend paying stocks are going to outperform." My sentiments exactly - actually received announcement of three dividend increases this week.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25893.html

 

[Birchtree]

"US equities are now fairly well confirmed to be in a major Wave 3 advance. Signals are indicating that the 10 year long lateral bear market is over. This puts it in an ultra bullish 3 of 3 of 3 mode. The full wave 3 has targets at the 2007 highs. This is still a relatively young bull market. In the bigger scheme of things, it's even possible we are now only in 1 of a larger scale 5." My sentiments exactly - make me that money.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/VINCENT.html

 

[Birchtree]

Whoa there Rochester - ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) is offering $68 for my MEE (Massey Energy) that's 19% more than Massey's closing price Friday. If it opens at that price it will have my attention. I'm not sure if there is any share exchanges - I also own ANR. If the market softens and drops I'm out of MEE - I need cash to buy my other sweet wall flowers. This could be an all cash deal in which case I'm bought out anyway at a later date.

 

[Birchtree]

And the beat goes on. Massey shareholders will receive slightly more than one Alpha share for each Massey share in addition to $10 per share in cash. That would really boost my ANR share position and provide me more striking power for future gains in the coal sector. So the question becomes do I take the money and run short term or wait patiently for future growth with even more potential. I need a market rally Monday to save the day.

 

[Birchtree]

Final sales - a measure that gives a feeling for underlying demand in the economy by subtracting the change in business inventories from GDP - notched its biggest increase since 1984, growing 7.1% in the fourth quarter. And the good news continues.

 

[Birchtree]

ANR (Alpha Natural Resources) reached an agreement to acquire Massey in a cash and stock deal valued at $7.1 billion, Alpha is now poised to become the world's third biggest producer of metallurgical coal used by steelmakers just when global demand for the resource is growing and supplies are increasingly scarce. My tax consequences should be fairly light with this transaction because I'm not going to make any sales. Alpha is offering 1.025 shares for each share of Massey plus $10 a share in cash. That will really boost my ANR position for longer term gains.

 

[Birchtree]

Income for S&P 500 companies rose 30% last year, the most since 1995, and more than 70% of companies in the index have exceeded analyst profit estimates for six straight quarters, the longest streak in Bloomberg data going back to 1993.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch, is this the End of the World ??

And if it is - Do you think we should 'immediately' cash in on everything and withdrawl whatever we can from the banks?? :worried:

 

[FAB1]

Birch, is this the End of the World ??

And if it is - Do you think we should 'immediately' cash in on everything and withdrawl whatever we can from the banks?? :worried:

No.

its just SNAFU...

Calm down and take your Ridlin

 

[Birchtree]

There are so many cluckers today the place is starting to look like a chicken coop.

I decided not to be greedy today and just wait on my buying power to build - perhaps by the end of the week I'll be golden and ready to rock.

 

[Steadygain]

There are so many cluckers today the place is starting to look like a chicken coop.

I decided not to be greedy today and just wait on my buying power to build - perhaps by the end of the week I'll be golden and ready to rock.

Well Birch you have to know my comment was like a spineless mouse talking to a massive BULL.

If there are a lot of 'cluckers' then I would say it's 3/09 to 12/09 all over again.


The MARKETS are strong and this strength is well reflected.

I'll reassess in a few more months -- but so far since 12/1 things have been outstanding -- things are holding and I'm good.

 

[Birchtree]

My HRL (Hormel) announces a 2 for 1 stock split - I'll gladly take it and fully expect many more companies to offer stock splits as the year progresses. Today should be a nice money day. Sorry for all those on the platform when the train goes by.