Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I believe the I fund still owes me money for Monday. Now may be the propitious moment to buy into some of that S fund pain for any possible rebound. I'm going to go 40C/20S/40I and see what transpires over the next 6 trading days.

 

[nnuut]

HEY!!!! What happened to 100% "C" Fund, have things changed?

 

[Birchtree]

Situations always change but I am trying to stay 100% large caps - even the wife is holding 100% large cap in her defined contribution plan. The S fund will rebound so I thought I'd catch 20% on the upside if it's available.

 

[Birchtree]

Last week in a four day trading week my oceanic puked up $112K. That now leaves me at $1546K at week #98 off the March'09 lows. I would like to get perhaps half of that give back this week. Here is what the week looked like: +8K, -$81K, -$34K, -$5K. The moral of this experience is that the deeper in you are the harder the consolidations can hit - but then again the more potential for the upside.

 

[JimmyJoe]

You'll get all of it back, then some this week.

 

[Birchtree]

More good folks heading for the lily pad today - that's an opportunity for me to really move up the rankings. I'm currently at #74 and about 60 trackers above me will be in safety and that's perfect. I still have one IFT left to return to the I fund once the S fund sweetens my gains.

 

[FAB1]

I see the S fund is getting back some of its losses from last week. quaint.

 

[FAB1]

But with QE2 still dumping cash into the market we will go much, much higher.

Yes, inflating the "bubble" always helpful!
Bubble, Bubble - boil and Trouble

 

[Dutchy]

More good folks heading for the lily pad today - that's an opportunity for me to really move up the rankings. I'm currently at #74 and about 60 trackers above me will be in safety and that's perfect. I still have one IFT left to return to the I fund once the S fund sweetens my gains.

Markets are looking good so far today. We'll see if the flash traders decide to take profits after 3pm! Good trading Birchy!

 

[JTH]

I see you’ve chosen to assume some S-fund risk this afternoon, does this mean you assume the small caps rotation is now off the table? Was there a specific catalyst or was this just a “it’s about that time” sort of thing?

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect the S fund will rebound back to its previous price but that may only be a head fake. The S&P 500 has gained just 14.1%, including dividends, over the 10 years through Friday, and remains more than 20% off its 2007 high. The S&P SmallCap 600 has jumped 77% during the period. Every dog has his day and I think the C fund will rise and outperform going forward. Large caps are cheap, unloved, and no one except Frixxxx wants to own them. We are set to roll.

 

[Birchtree]

Earlier this month the S&P MidCap 400 stock index quietly broke its all time record. That same day, the S&P SmallCap 600 index was just 3% away from its peak in July 2007. Overvalued - the price/earnings ratio of small-cap stocks is currently about 17, compared with about 14 for large caps. New S fund buyers are late to the party in my opinion.

 

[Birchtree]

Lots of talk today regarding food inflation. This has got me thinking it might be time to start getting back into MOS, CF, AGU, POT. MOS is selling for $74 and I got out back in 2008 around $196 to $150. I could make a sacarifice and do a sell to raise cash - but I prefer not to take any profits yet. Perhaps next week I can begin building positions in these stocks. Wait for me boys - don't make me chase.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/deep-thoughts-by-jeff-saut

 

[JTH]

Thanks BT, I love the statistical reads. Yes, I love to see cherry-picked data, inversely what would happen if you started DCA from the beginning of the previous bull market, to the March 2009 bottom? You’d be so deep in the hole it’s not funny. A valid system should be able to overcome the Random Walk theory. We don’t always get to choose when we get to retire, if you were to use DCA & retire at the bottom of a bear market, you’d be financially devastated.

 

[Birchtree]

When you start taking your TSP money is in your control - that provides flexibility during unpleasant cycles. My oceanic account is built for income and will as usual withstand any bear raids. I DCA into my base with dividend reinvestments. The income portion of a portfolio provides stability so unnecessary selling at a bottom can be avoided. Playing the margin game though dangerous does provide further flexibility when dealing with taxes - you get access to your unrealized gains without having to sell. I do have my lamb chop account protecting my back while I risk myself for extended gains.

 

[Birchtree]

With another new all time high in the NYAD would suggest this bull market has several more uptrends to go before there should be any signs of an impending top. The current rally has taken on a quality reminiscent of 1995, 1989/99, 2003 and 2009. Tomorrow we take out the resistance at 1300 with good volume and the rally will continue.

 

[Birchtree]

Now we have only 3,020 points to go. If we get the same kind of effect from QE2 that we got from QE1, then the Dow should add another 50% before the summer and that would put us at Dow 15,000. We are in the Presidential four year cycle and the sweet spot of the first 2 quarters of year 3 have the best returns. This means the current rally should last into April at least. I want my spike blow off top right up to SPX 1400 and keep'em all at the station.

 

[FAB1]

More good folks heading for the lily pad today - that's an opportunity for me to really move up the rankings. I'm currently at #74

I am going to take a wild guess (because I dont know what the I fund will end up valued at today's close) and put Birch somewhere in the #25-#30 range. This is taking into account BT has C and I and that I will get the 1.06 that Yahoo is reading.

Tractor will take the lead unless the I fund gets a Barclays Hit. lol.

I dont see myself going down too much as most of those holding high % of S are more than 1% below me, nevertheless I will go down some.

 

[FAB1]

Just refreshed the tracker (it was not working for a while) and the Results are in...

Tractor pulls into the lead, but BT didnt get to #30, so sorry but he did make it to # 39.

FAB1 hangs in the top 100 at #51.

See you all tomorrow!