Birchtree's Account Talk

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I agree with you Birch about having to stay if I was in the market.
It was due for a little rest/reversal I believe this may last for another couple of trading days and jump up on Monday or Tuesday.
I got out early this month but ready to get back in soon.
 
Watch this magic trick. First watch the market go down a little until the 25th. Then the president speaks. Then the market goes up nicely getting all our money back and then some, until February :). Then all bets are off till May, though I still dabble in the market during the early Springtime.:rolleyes::laugh:
 
Currently it looks like I won't be building buying power until sometime next week - I have to make up the $81K hit from yesterday and anything that might be added to it today. I could sell some stock out of the lamb chop account and raise cash but there just isn't a big desire to do that - I'm patient and I do have dividends working. Any quick rebound may set a pattern for the year. The bulls are in charge of this bull market - save Ferdinand.
 
I am set and prepared for the unthinkable - a parabolic, panic, buying stampede to push us right back to resistance at SPX 1300. There sure are some superlative golden prices available to the serious accumulator of equities. Not a propitious time to seek safety.
 
A quote from the Ritholtz blog posted by Robo. "At 90% gains, this market has run further and faster than any previous rally. Indeed, in just 20 months it has far outpaced every other rally's 24 month record by some 50%." Now I know why I've been buying this puppy all the way up with more and more money required. It's the reason I just gave back $115K in two days - what flows out can and will flow back in. I'm getting in deeper and growing every week as time moves on. This week will set me back some toward reaching that $2M mark from the lows of March '09 - but I'll eventually obtain that holy grail and then move on toward the $3M mark - that's hope that I can believe in. Snort.
 
It's funny but what is happening now with the small caps occurred also in the Spring of 1983. I may have spoken of it previously. And I know what the outcome was having lived through its dimensions. Yes my friends there are some benefits to age and experience. I just saw the numbers for the I fund and a negative $0.40 is not a real number - that will be revalued on the close for tomorrow. But when you play with the I fund you should be prepared to be toyed with - it's all part of the Barclays game. I suspect $0.20 of that will return soon.
 
I'm sitting at #125 on the tracker no thanx to the I fund valuations game. However, the good folks up ahead of me are all essentially locked in with the lily pad and F fund for the next 7 trading days. They should be prepared to be pillaged and relinquish those prime seats to the hoofhearted folks that are on the way. They are all going to be toast before the month ends. Put your ear to the rails - you can hear the Grand Trunk on the move. I'm reminded what Laszlo Birinyi said a couple of weeks back; " the average length and size of bull markets suggests the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013 and the rally should continue for another 32 months." Why get off the train in Nevada when it's going to NYC.
 
Birchtree said:
Why get off the train in Nevada when it's going to NYC.
Click to expand...

While not the visible enthusiast of last October, Tepper seems to be as bullish as you. He now tempers the enthusiasm with recognition that while the Fed may think "full employment" is going to get to 5.5-6.0 he thinks 6.5-7.0 is more likely and that won't be for 10-15 years. His Food Bank charity work fits with his perception that a large segment of the population will need support for much longer than some think.

He thinks P/E could get to 14/15 but not 17/18 and 2012 earnings could be 100 or higher. He thought the Bloomberg P/E discussion of 11.8 is much too low. Rates may tighten in late 2011 or early 2012. He seemed to be saying consistently that the easy money has been made in all sectors and was not enthusiastic for currencies or bonds.

He thought the ECB needs to make its liquidity facility for 3 years, not the short term 3 months it uses. He would invest in Spain but there are many things needing fixing first.

In the discussion of his face looking like one of the recently arrested family bosses, he was definitive that he thought all of the arrested looked very handsome.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm sitting at #125 on the tracker no thanx to the I fund valuations game. However, the good folks up ahead of me are all essentially locked in with the lily pad and F fund for the next 7 trading days. They should be prepared to be pillaged and relinquish those prime seats to the hoofhearted folks that are on the way. They are all going to be toast before the month ends. Put your ear to the rails - you can hear the Grand Trunk on the move. I'm reminded what Laszlo Birinyi said a couple of weeks back; " the average length and size of bull markets suggests the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013 and the rally should continue for another 32 months." Why get off the train in Nevada when it's going to NYC.
Click to expand...

BT's account talk is the place to go when you need a pep talk. :)
 
Birchtree said:
I'm sitting at #125 on the tracker no thanx to the I fund valuations game. However, the good folks up ahead of me are all essentially locked in with the lily pad and F fund for the next 7 trading days. They should be prepared to be pillaged and relinquish those prime seats to the hoofhearted folks that are on the way. They are all going to be toast before the month ends. Put your ear to the rails - you can hear the Grand Trunk on the move. I'm reminded what Laszlo Birinyi said a couple of weeks back; " the average length and size of bull markets suggests the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013 and the rally should continue for another 32 months." Why get off the train in Nevada when it's going to NYC.
Click to expand...


We'll see what the rest of January brings..... One month does not a year make! I do like this friendly competition... Good luck to all.
 
Birchtree said:
"The 1400 level (SPX) is a good target for this up leg, but getting there before we turn down into the March low, seems a bit of a stretch." As a speculation, I wonder how much money I'd make if we do have a blow off spike top to 1400 - now that would be welcomed.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25729.html
Click to expand...

From your lips to the TSP Gods ears ! Can I get an amen ! 1400 before the March low does
appear to be a stretch. But I know you ! You'll be buying every share you can ! Good Luck
my friend and thanks for the birthday wishes.:)
 
squalebear said:
From your lips to the TSP Gods ears ! Can I get an amen ! 1400 before the March low does
appear to be a stretch. But I know you ! You'll be buying every share you can ! Good Luck
my friend and thanks for the birthday wishes.:)
Click to expand...

This will be IFT number 6 for your account for January.
ARE YOU SURE THIS IS A VALID TRANSFER?

I will be seeing more of these I'd wager! :D
 
Looking back I bought my last GE position at $17.22 - I think I need more of it next week. I remember in 1989 this stock split twice in one year - that kind of growth may be starting to kick in again.
 
A couple of things are bothering me lately, bond outflows are going to large caps and tech stocks are plummeting and the market is ignoring good news... There may be a storm gathering, or I may be worrying too much. Never the less, tech always leads the way up AND down.
 
FAB1 said:
This will be IFT number 6 for your account for January.
ARE YOU SURE THIS IS A VALID TRANSFER?

I will be seeing more of these I'd wager! :D
Click to expand...

Valid ? Very much so ! Don't bet the farm FAB1, every couple of down days (maybe).
But once I've reached my monthly goal, I will park my car in the (G)arage.
I know, I know, how dare I speak of bailing in Birchtree's Thread, Sorry BT. :embarrest:
 
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