Birchtree's Account Talk

[JamesE]

Your I fund is crying today, big fella. Just sayin'...

 

[Birchtree]

The dollar is impacting the I fund but one never knows how they'll diddle with the fair value.

 

[FAB1]

Your I fund is crying today, big fella. Just sayin'...

Its okay, because Birch knows that...a one & a two & a three...

What goes up must come down
Stock Mar-kett got to go round
Living on your Lily Pad and you, you never learn
Ride those risky funds
let the spinning wheel turn

:laugh:

 

[JamesE]

Fab, me and birch have been going round and round about this for year now. He knows I like to rib him. My hope is that the S continues its reign of terror over the I again this year so I can keep up this nonsense.

 

[FAB1]

Fab, me and birch have been going round and round about this for year now. He knows I like to rib him. My hope is that the S continues its reign of terror over the I again this year so I can keep up this nonsense.

Its jolly good fun, isnt it?

I like it when BT will ignore the ribbing...for a while and then pounce!

And I would have bought him that Steak dinner too, but he didnt reach his
self-stated target!

 

[FAB1]

deleted

 

[FAB1]

VIX is down -2.4% at noon.

Doesnt this mean less traders are buying/selling, less activity?

Yet the markets are still going up.

Correct me if Im wrong BT but is this indicating
we are going up but on lower and lower volume
with less and less buyers?

 

[Birchtree]

All the VIX indicates is complacency and there have been at least four instances in the last couple of years that when the VIX goes below the 17 level there is trouble coming from a contrarian viewpoint. I don't think the SPX will roll over with a VIX under 17 - but that is not the history so caution is warranted. If the SPX can close above 1270 on a weekly basis, it may open the way for 1326 real soon. The best is yet to arrive - don't worry about a 3.8% consolidation until the VIX goes below the 16 level. It's no reason to step aside.

 

[Birchtree]

It looks like a buying panic is stepping up - I'll take a near verticle rally or parabolic meltup just to make the sideliners or platform sitters nervous. Once we hit Dow 12,000 as confirmation there will most certainly be a venturi effect rush for the in door - and I'm just waiting for the ride of my lifetime.

 

[FAB1]

per the wickedpedia....

When the market is believed as likely to soar as to plummet, writing any option that will cost the writer in the event of a sudden large move in either direction may look equally risky. Hence high VIX readings mean investors see significant risk that the market will move sharply, whether downward or upward. The highest VIX readings occur when investors anticipate that huge moves in either direction are likely. Only when investors perceive neither significant downside risk nor significant upside potential will the VIX be low.

works for me.

 

[JTH]

All the VIX indicates is complacency and there have been at least four instances in the last couple of years that when the VIX goes below the 17 level there is trouble coming from a contrarian viewpoint. I don't think the SPX will roll over with a VIX under 17 - but that is not the history so caution is warranted. If the SPX can close above 1270 on a weekly basis, it may open the way for 1326 real soon. The best is yet to arrive - don't worry about a 3.8% consolidation until the VIX goes below the 16 level. It's no reason to step aside.

I agree on the VIX, I sure don't like the lack of fear, when it does rush back on it will be too late to make the exit, most of the damage will have been done.

It looks like a buying panic is stepping up - I'll take a near verticle rally or parabolic meltup just to make the sideliners or platform sitters nervous. Once we hit Dow 12,000 as confirmation there will most certainly be a venturi effect rush for the in door - and I'm just waiting for the ride of my lifetime.

It's the Large caps leading, S&P 100 made new 52 week highs today. S&P 400 is underperforming..

 

[Mcqlives]

Its jolly good fun, isnt it?

I like it when BT will ignore the ribbing...for a while and then pounce!

He has been ignoring a lot lately, maybe we should stop calling him the permabull and think of him as a big pussy-cat! Just kidding BT...even though I only post a drive-by every once in a while I still read your, and others, postings often. Happy trading to all and may everyone have a 20+% year.

 

[Birchtree]

Betula papyrifera has an open door policy - stop in anytime.

"Breadth can turn at anytime, but the current position of the Summation Index does not scream a correction is immiment."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19548/qe2-and-stock-market-breadth-still-question-the-smart-money

 

[FAB1]

It looks like a buying panic is stepping up - I'll take a near verticle rally or parabolic meltup just to make the sideliners or platform sitters nervous. Once we hit Dow 12,000 as confirmation there will most certainly be a venturi effect rush for the in door - and I'm just waiting for the ride of my lifetime.

Wow - kinda like getting trampled by a greedy mob storming into a walmart to get xmas gifts, huh?

 

[Birchtree]

"Laszlo Birinyi said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 by September 2013. The rally should continue for another 32 months if not longer." I knew I've been on the right path toward righteousness and he even mentioned the secular bull market. He mean't the mega trend secular bull market that is going to make me wealthy. Snort.

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/01/05/birinyi-sees-huge-jump-coming-for-stocks/

 

[nguyensv]

239Birchtree0.54%
240nguyensv0.54%

Hi BT :cheesy:

 

[pokerstar629]

Deleted.

 

[Birchtree]

Is something biting you? Come back Shane.

 

[Warrenlm]

I think Birchtree is writing the copy for CNBC this morning. Predictions of 1300, 1400, 1500 .......

 

[Birchtree]

The fine folks at Barclays are predicting a NFP number of 450,000. That'll rock some socks.