Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Nah, nah, nah, you couldn't pay me to be in the F fund. It's too dangerous for me my friend. The VIX just went to 18.99 and the spring is coiled and loaded for more points in the last hour. The Transports are killing the bears today. I'm so close to having a bundle of buying power for the holidays - it'll be like a smorgasbord of value to chose from.

 

[prometheus]

Standard issue pump & dump today. SPX ran out of gas well short of 1202, FAS Bid-Ask is falling apart as we speak, & EUR/USD is threatening a close below the 10-mins 100 MA @ 1.3616. Timber!

 

[crws]

Nah, nah, nah, you couldn't pay me to be in the F fund. It's too dangerous for me my friend. The VIX just went to 18.99 and the spring is coiled and loaded for more points in the last hour. The Transports are killing the bears today. I'm so close to having a bundle of buying power for the holidays - it'll be like a smorgasbord of value to chose from.

I wasn't asking you about being in any particular fund, I was asking you if it concerns you, as leaning more to buy and hold, whether such a hair trigger narrow trading range seemingly based on currency valuation bothers you, to what extent, and how do you address that concern?

 

[Birchtree]

None of it bothers me particularly - I'm in favor of a stronger dollar going forward reaching the 120 level sometime in 2011. When the bond market starts selling off that cash will move into risk assets and float my boats - and will provide the rocket fuel for a big Wave 3 of 3. And now that Obama is a gelding the future looks bright for the dollar and the economy and thus the stock market.

 

[Birchtree]

"From a contrary perspective, this survey could be seen as slightly bullish because of the large decrease in bullish sentiment after a minor correction."

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4681353

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,
The only reason why G-20 was bothered about the recent $600 B thing is because they did NOT want the value of the dollar to go down.

Egggggg Plant (said like a lamb speaking) was all bent out of shape for the exact same reason with China man

We could be 'primed and ready' despite all the 'news' -- seriously because the 'news' in 3/09 was every bit as bad ....

The 'Nations' are more in charge -- IMF -- and all have had enough. They (that being every Nation) needs one to seriously kick ass and rise and keep rising -- Up to this point and still to this day that would be the USA and 'The Dollar' -- and DH was well aware of that and knew for that very reason he could pull that stunt.

So my guess is they told him just for that 'We're gona make your little a$$ wait awhile -- but hell they're only hurting themselves ...:cheesy:

Having said all this -- we could be well primed for the Biggest BULL in years .... and C Fund could easily go up by 600 to 800 points before the BULL takes a slight breather and keeps going.

Everyone 'waiting' will lose the only opportunity -- that's how it goes

 

[Birchtree]

The Birchtree 300 is percolating and it appears nothing will hold it back. I don't like the Fed but I also won't fight the Fed. The VIX came down over 3 points today to 18.75 - I won't worry until we see the 16 level. I'm waiting for my buying power to kick in and then I go shopping for more wall flowers.

 

[Birchtree]

"The bullish tone of this survey is consistent with other economic reports published in recent weeks."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24387.html

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX had an intraday low of 17.83 down 0.92 at the time - this could be a precursor for next week. This is what my oceanic did during the week: +$9K, -$75K, +$16K, +$66K, +$16K for a grand total of +$32K. Well every little bit helps. At week #89 off the 3/9/09 low I'm up $1327K with $673K to go to make the $2M mark. I'll get there by the end of the year. Now that's called confidence. It will be easy to make money in 2011 because the truck is loaded.

 

[Birchtree]

It would now appear that the SPX has regained support above both the 20-day MA (1197.31) and the 20-day EMA (1193). At 1199.73 the SPX will take out the previous intraday high at 1226 before Turkey Day - IMHO. Friday will be a light volume day and a perfect opportunity for a good continuation rally - CNBC will be watching all the shoppers. I'd like to buy myself about $200K worth of stock prior to the Santa Rally. I think I currently own all the coal I need. The LTD is going to pay a special $3.00 dividend on 12/21 - how great is that. My current plan is to shift 10% of my tugboat (TSP) back to the lily pad on 11/30 and then another 20% to the lily pad on 12/3 and then wait for the hit that may be arriving the following week - then all in on 12/10. Just trying to gain on the buy and hold S funders up ahead.

 

[Afishegg]

What does your "lillypad" account mean? What does your "oceanic" account mean? I hear you talking!, but the words I can't make out!?!?!

 

[PessOptimist]

Birch, might be time to explain a few things for those not long time listeners.

I am curious, why 10% on 11/30 and 20% on 12/3? Why not 30% on 11/30 or wait until 12/3? From which funds will you move these percentages? Has Mindylou been at the catnip? Why burn the December IFT if not necessary?

Inquiring minds want to know.

 

[fcharles81]

What does your "lillypad" account mean? What does your "oceanic" account mean? I hear you talking!, but the words I can't make out!?!?!

Yeah we wanna know what all this means. lol We are trying to make some cash for Christmas also.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Just don't mention 2008.................

 

[PessOptimist]

2000-2002 wasn't too cool either IT. These guys are trying to figure out who's who and what's what and wtf Birchtree is talking about. They also need to be made very aware of 2000-2002 and 2008.

 

[Nate]

5 minutes of research and I already have a good guess with Oceanic.
Teach a man to fish, etc. etc.

 

[KevinD]

This is BT's oceanic account. <- click that...

The lily pad is the G fund in TSP. His tugboat IS his TSP account.

I could be wrong but I think he likes to speak in nautical terms because "rising tides lift all boats."

My advice to the n00bs? Read every post in every thread every day.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I'd like to thank Kevin D. for his kind and relevant input. Good man Kevin. You always have a good word for us.

 

[KevinD]

I'd like to thank Kevin D. for his kind and relevant input. Good man Kevin. You always have a good word for us.

I appreciate the kind words.

I'm ok at the interwebs. I'm ok at message boards. I understand that long time members of message boards sometimes get tired of answering the same questions over and over so I help out when I can.

Look at the "new member introduction" section and all the n00bs that introduce themselves and then never post anything else. I really wish more members would participate.

Now if I could only figure out these IFT thingies...

 

[Birchtree]

No one has asked about my newly created and growing sacrificial lamb chop account. This account has been built inside the oceanic account as a scarificial account to protect the base assets from a margin call. As a margin player I'm buying wall flowers with someone else's dime and have to remain prepared for any kind of severe market downturn because then the call comes in to raise my equity requirements and by that time I'm likely on the run. This way there is no emotion involved deciding which stocks to sacrifice selling. I'm also not concerned with the dividend income but already have substantial unrealized capital gains available. I firmly believe the more debt I pile up the more money this leverage will make me - dangerous yes but the potential has no ceiling. And a mega trend secular bull market is what I'm counting on going forward for the next several years. During the last 16% correction I gave back around $670K so that's the field of dreams I'm playing in. Now a 16% gain from here will really give me a particularly nice kick into the stratosphere.