Birchtree's Account Talk

[JTH]

Yes. Trend traders are now less than 10-points away from a sell short signal (20-day low) for the S&P.

It's been intersting to watch this market decline and unfold in such an orderly fashion. Watching all the momentum systems, it's been sort of like watching paint dry.

 

[Steadygain]

Hey Birch -- On days like this you probably get in the mood to copy and paste a bunch of stuff from the Military Times.

But I'd rather you either vent with me -- -- or we could just randomly pick someone

You know this is all a bunch of crap and as soon as everyone bails to safety it will fly back up.

I guess the most important thing to remember is Guns and Roses:

Nothing lasts forever and we both know hearts can change....

Soo this too will pass

 

[Birchtree]

"Before the selling is over it would be great to see all stochastics on the daily index charts get to oversold levels, meaning 20 or lower, the RSIs get to 50 and hopefully lower, and the MACDs get to the zero line or lower. The more oversold the better."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24311.html

 

[Birchtree]

If I recall the last time the market had all these European sovereign debt scares we got a 16% correction and the VIX soared from 15 to 48 in a month's time - and it all eventually boiled down to foolishness. The same is happening now - be ready for a strong move back to the previous highs when the sun shines away from the fools. I know I'm reaching the big time because I really took a hit today - but that's the pain I've been longing for - so I won't complain and just accept my fate as I move up the tracker the rest of the year. I think SKIPPER has put a target on my back.

 

[amoeba]

Birch:

There is no significant volatility. ^Vix is 22. That's nothing. What is significant is the volume; just short of 300 million SPY. The charts will tell you the last time there was that much downside volume (and it was not pretty).

It may not be a correction, but there is conviction in this move. It isn't noise. Honestly - I did not see this in the stars as I put money in (as you did) before the drop.

The last half-hour was not as discouraging as yesterday.

 

[Steadygain]

The day to day stuff is too deceiving ....

...we can't help but think a few bad falls will be followed by a GAIN.



But trying to sense the 'Bigger Picture' - I think things will likely hold stable and a good GAIN will follow...


...yet I don't think it's over ...

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/11/16/doll-focuses-on-free-cash-flow-says-bull-isnt-over/

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect that many portfolio managers and hedge fund managers will be buying the dips because their jobs are on the line - they need performance. The consolidation could be finished until the next one. So core U.S. inflation falls to record low from the 1950s - yes my friends the Fed is fighting the right battle. I want my equity asset bubble. Snort.

 

[prometheus]

Sorry, Birch, wrong time to be all-in with so much macro-uncertainty in the air. Ireland: question mark. $600-billion Fed party: the guys delivering the kegs are actually cops. Everything technical looks like a bear flag, with today the last chance to get out before more blood is spilled. Still bullish for Dec action, but the bunker's a good place to be until something, anything, positive emerges for certain. Good luck in your main accounts.

 

[Birchtree]

Thanx for the red flags - but a wall of worry is what the bull needs to thrive. My oceanic account doesn't need luck but rather more dividend increases, stock splits and buy outs. There is just so much liquidity available as the Fed pumps, bond owners puke and portfolio manger's need to buy. I would look for a small melt up this afternoon.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/fed-confirm-qe2-bank-bailout/

 

[WorkFE]

Now Ben's a genius. :laugh:

That article does not sound pleasant

 

[Birchtree]

"A break of 1144 on SPX, especially on a weekly closing basis, would increase the odds that any pullback may be more than a normal correction within a healthy market."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19001/how-far-could-stocks-fall

 

[crws]

http://pragcap.com/fed-confirm-qe2-bank-bailout/

What!!?
Are you feeling ok....?
Well, I've thought this all along. So now we wait and see...The banks lost a bit today after the announcement.

PS- here's the basis. The chickens are on their way home to roost.
HR 3808 Veto Upheld - Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2010

TODAY Congress Will Try - By Secret Vote - to Retroactively Legalize Foreclosure Fraud and Forgery By the Big Banks ... Call Congress and Say NO

 

[burrocrat]

what? birchbull might have bear feelings? and buffet sold off his banks?

holy shiznat, what's a guy supposed to believe in anymore?

 

[Birchtree]

As my friend Evinrude would say 'all I need is $50K today and I'll be straighter than a skeeter's peter'. Let's see a Dow +178 just for scary fun. A Philly Fed index of 22.5 is a very nice jump and away we go.

 

[Birchtree]

When I woke up this morning everything had a pink hue - I forgot to take out my rose colored lenses. Make me money.

 

[Birchtree]

Not to be overly braggadocio but if I can get a Dow of 11,225 on the close my oceanic account will come close to its' first ever $100K day - whew. Oh that sweet smell of superlative bull manure - ain't nothing like it. And we may get a follow through tomorrow. Waiting for the VIX to drop below the 19 level and the SPX to 1206.

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/11/17/siegel-the-pessimists-are-wrong-again/

 

[crws]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/11/17/siegel-the-pessimists-are-wrong-again/

I see you found your glasses
Doesn't it bother you that the fall went to lower support, then reversed to upper support, stopping just short on both?
Like it is a rigged game before the slaughter, based primarily on the valuation of the USD?