Birchtree's Account Talk

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It would appear that #3 love-to-bike and #8 Hot Rod are making a move to try and gain the tracker lead by going all in - hope they don't get crushed next week. Well a little off their gains would be welcomed. The whole investing world is anticipating a huge move and you know how that may work out - next week could humble many. I'll sit tight and try to avoid major damage - a cut here and there won't matter in the longer term.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23867.html
 
Ah, it's all in good fun. Looks like we may be getting ready for more rally which will cost a little more out of pocket for those going long today. Be right and sit tight - just don't stand next to a guillotine.
 
Dumbo Egg Plant was on earlier today supposedly discussing the economy so I put him on mute - I didn't want to listen to crap and now here he comes again. Doesn't anyone have a muzzle?
 
Attention. My wise investment adviser, Mundylou, informs me that the small caps are setting up a head fake and that the big wipe out starts next week for a few days. It'll probably be hard and fast as usual to weaken some knees and then silly money will step in and trend us higher. I don't want to hold my 20%G for the entire month - so bring the pain early. Barton Biggs says the conventional wisdom is for a sell off on the Fed announcement - he thinks we'll be heading higher on QE2 news and looking for bubbles at a later date. I'll gladly take the bubble in equity assets since few are currently invested in this arena - a classic approach.
 
The last two weeks have been a wash for my oceanic account - I'm back to $1183K at week #84. If I'm to make my goal of $2M at week # 93 of the March '09 lows this market needs to explode big time and that may be about ready to happen after a short consolidation. It could be a grand move for the last two months of the year. This prolonged sideways move sets the game for a potential breakout with very little participation - it's perfect to take as few as possible to the upside. A strong day or two in risk assets could remove some negative concerns. I'm so ready to make a killing.
 
Birchtree said:
Attention. My wise investment adviser, Mundylou...
Click to expand...


WOW! Scared me Birch --- I thought you were going to announce our engagement .... and Mindy hasn't said yes yet....:embarrest::o


Anyway - had to come back and log in.... I always go to your place and then leave for the weekend.

Have a good one
 
Here's a quote from TWSJ by Jason Zweig.

"Adviser, too, have been buying higher and selling lower. Those who use TD Ameritrade had an average of 26% of clients' assets in bonds and cash on Oct. 9, 2007, the day the Dow hit its all-time high of 14164.52. By March 9, 2009, the day the Dow scraped rock bottom at 64440.08, the advisers had jacked up bonds and cash to 51%. The stampede into bonds coincided with a rush out of stocks that may be intensifying. A recent survey of financial advisers by Charles Schwab found that 77% planned, over the second half of 2010, to maintain or even raise the proportion of their clienys' assets that are invested in bonds - u 71% in January. Yet bond prices are near all-time highs and future returns are likely to shrink. By selling stocks as they fell and buying bonds as they rose, advisers may have ended up exposing clients to more risk, rather than less." It's a classic move.
 
BT,

Still feeling strong about a pending "nesting" correction and hopes for an anticipated S Fund buying opportunity ~$17.50 share price?
 
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for any surprises - you just never know. The numbers look good this morning.

David Bianco likes to point out, the S&P 500 is an increasingly global index, helped by the weaker U.S. dollar and strong commodity prices. So the biggest risk for investors right now isn't that the U.S. continues to trundle along, but that fast growing emerging economies cool. And that is more likely to be years, rather than months, away.

"Big U.S. companies that get the largest share of their sales abroad are expected to see revenue grow at a much faster rate over the next year than those more focused on the U.S. market, due tio consumers' continued reluctance to spend."

"Another scenario is that better economic data boosts stocks while allowing the Fed to take a modest approach to quantitative easing. That could keep the equity rally rolling and enable the dollar to rise. You'd like to see a scenario where there are positive signs in the economy, so the dollar strengthens and stocks rally as well."
 
Something to consider (or not.) On this 16-year monthly chart, the 3 month average has put in a higher high, when compared to the previous May peak. Also, out of the last 9 crossovers, 3 were fakeouts, all finishing to the upside.

View attachment 10139
 
JTH,

So you are back in at 85C - holding the other 15% for the consolidation I suspect. Will you catch the S fund after next week? I'm trying to hold out for the golden price of $17.75.

A little good news from the tracker. #12 Truehonest has gone to safety. $10 MRJ and #49 BamaAF are going all in to stay ahead of the game if possible. MRJ has taken a 100% S position, BamaAF is 50C/50S. I'm glad they like that S fund which is relatively weak currently. Staying away from the S fund until we get a consolidation is the only way I'm going to move up the tracker.
 
Birchtree said:
JTH,

So you are back in at 85C - holding the other 15% for the consolidation I suspect. Will you catch the S fund after next week? I'm trying to hold out for the golden price of $17.75.
Click to expand...

Yes I'm back and have stored a little into the G-Fund should we get some consolidation from here. Bonds aren't working, so I felt it was better to be in stocks rather than sitting on my hands. It is what it is, it's not the entry I want, but at the same time prices dictate my decision and this may be the only pullback we'll get.

Since the 30 Sep bottom (top chart), small caps have outperformed large & mid caps. However, I do believe there is potential for SPX to close the performance gap, and we can see that since 14 Oct (bottom chart), SPX has bottomed against SML, and has been slowly gaining ground ever since.

View attachment 10140
 
Here we go in the last hour - pain finally. The Dow 20-day MA is at 11055.22 and is the line that has to be held - if we go lower the decline typically continues declining. Hit me with your best shot. Could this be the start of the small cap crush - maybe. If we can't see any gains this week then perhaps the 4-year cycle is at work - that would be fine with me. Tomorrow will be the tell.
 
Now that late hour rebound was a disappointment - the potential 4-year nesting must be really weak due the pressure exerted in July. Well, I'll just sit back and wait for my 20% entry point. Maybe after all the news is in - then all hell breaks loose for a week. Ah, you can't win them all.
 
Birch,

The 'good thing' about the day to day --- is days like this!!


You made over $500 --- that over five fishing :o hundred dollars :D:D
 
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