Birchtree's Account Talk

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I actually made more in dollar terms with my TSP during that rally period - but the higher one goes the lower the percentage gains. Also, from the March low to 4/23/10 my oceanic had a dollar gain of $1294K - I have no idea about the percentage gain.

The Dow Theory gave a buy signal with the DJIA and DJTA closing Monday above their June highs.
 
We still have plenty of time to turn this market around to the upside - if not I'll be kissing amoeba on the tracker again - I'm like an old lover that keeps coming back.
 
Birchtree said:
One more down day and the S funders will shake like leaves off an Aspen. I'm taking my own hits in the small cap arena but it was expected - keeping those dividends working. 58 of the top 100 are lily padders or F funders - that's going to be a lot of collateral damage in the future as the bulls move up the ranks.
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you may be eating my shortz tomorrow. Or today, depending on the I and F fund prices; which never seem to be on target with the daily changes.

58/100 are on top for a reason. they know when to get out.
 
I set a goal at the end of June '09 to try and make 1000 individual DCA purchases for my oceanic account at the beginning of the new bull cycle. I managed to make 948 stock buys. So now the clock will be reset to try and make at least 500 new buys during the next twelve months - if I can do more that will be great because I want to buy this bull as long as the money rolls in. It's called pyramiding the gains and if interest rates are stuck that's to my advantage. So I'm optimistic for another year forward. Snort. If it stinks I want to own it.
 
I just listened to Kelly Stockton saying she sees another 100 SPX points through October. She says buy stocks - makes me want to plop another $300K into margin.
 
Here are a few nuggets from my WSJ on 7/31 by Mark Gongloff.

"The yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped below 3% as investors scramble for safe havens, and the demand for corporate rate bonds is booming. At the end of trading Friday, the earnings yield on the SPX index was 6.6%, based on the past four quarters' operating earnings, the highest since 1995. The gap between that yield and the 10-year Treasury yield - a measure of the cheapness of stocks relative to Treasury bonds - is the widest in about 30 years. People are so risk-averse now that a tremendous potential opportunity is being created in stocks.

In the eyes of stock-market bulls, the underperformance this time around has left corporate bonds expensive and stocks attractively cheap, pricing in dire economic outcomes that most forecasters still don't think likely. You would have to believe in at least a mild recession to prefer corporate bonds over equities at this stage. I would argue that the asset class with the most upside, even in a scenario of slow growth, is equities.

The recent outperformance of bonds is also a reflection of the fact that individual investors have largely turned their backs on stocks after two crushing bear markets and a decade of negative returns.

Despite last year's stock-market rally, one of the best on record, individual investors pulled money from stock mutual funds and poured them into bond funds. The trend has continued this year, with long-term stock funds suffering a net $1.1 billion in outflows and bond funds enjoying $177.6 billion in inflows." The question is: can 50 million Frenchman be wrong. You bet!! Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. As a bull I couldn't be more pleased with the bond market over valuation. The world will shake when that money starts to move back to equities. Snort.
 
BirchTree,

Next year will be the third year of President Obama's Presidency. He is a Black Swan in flight. A thing of beauty for the economic illiterati.

The closest match to President Obama and his vaunted Administration is that of President Carter. I'm not certain, but I think Congress must have been in better hands and have had better people in positions of power than now.

I think next year will be unique in American history - hopefully:p



Birchtree said:
"Historical results of equity performance in the third year of the cycle itself are completely consistent across all time frames. Over the last half century plus, there is not one negative performance result for the Dow in any third year for a presendial cycle."

http://financialsense.com/contributors/brian-pretti/you-are-here
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"But investors probably need to be aware of the potential that it is a bond bubble. and be prepared to bail out early when rates and yields begin rising, or if the stock market bottoms and begins a new leg up. With so much money in bonds and bond funds, the exit doors will be crowded when the time comes."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21532.html
 
Here is a snap shot of how my oceanic account performed last week in daily sequence: +$50K, -$29K, -$27K, +$12K, and finally +$5K giving me a +$10K profit on the week. I'll gladly take what I can get. Next week should have some power behind the bull. So at week #73 off the vMarch '09 lows I'm up $925K. I'm still holding out for the $2M at week #93 - it'll be close.
 
I see we have another Donkey up for an ethics probe. Rep. Maxine Waters of California may face a House trial. Make her a Joan of Arc.
 
Sentiment bulls at 40% from 21% in the first week of July. Bears now at 33% down from 57% earlier in the month. Early in the month at the start of July investors were the most pessimistic they've been since early March 2009, just when stocks hit bottom. The NYSE breadth MCSUM hit +518.77 and is known as escape velocity - this could mean a further gain for the markets. The NYAD line is closing in on a new all time high. A nice bull divergence has formed on the NYAD MCSUM and MCO. Ride the coming storm.
 
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