Birchtree's Account Talk

[poolman]

I play the game different too Birchtree but

I don't mix what I do in my TDAmeritrade account or my Scottstrade account with the TSP account.

If I did and people where interested I would tell them what stocks I hold.

I'm not going to let up on you for continually trying to convince people to keep doing what you do and its TSP based. These are people that don't have close to 2 million Dollars. Sorry man but your sending out the wrong signals.

If you want to place bet's I'm willing.

 

[Zebe]

Many people reading your statement about contributions going to G being a mistake may infer that to transfer their current TSP account to G is a mistake. I disagree. Buy and hold is one strategy. But, transfering accumulated TSP funds to G at the start of a major down turn preserves capital for a buy-in on the upturn when we hit bottom and start back up. This gives us the chance to see how deep the loss will be (how cheap the stocks will be for reinvestment of accumulated capital.) In the mean time ongoing contributions could go into a stock fund if one wishes to invest at lower prices on the way down with greatly reduced risk to their overall nest egg. If I can save 10% by going to G, and still use current contributions to purchase some stock at lower and lower prices, then I benefit from two different strategies. If I loose 10% on the way down, I must make more than that on the way up to just get even. Success for most people is not necessarily an all in approach. Each of us in TSP must determine our own strategy, and I think a better strategy in a down turn preserves accumulated capital while taking advantage of bargain prices for ongoing contributions. The contributions from payroll to a stock fund also do not count against our IFT limit.

 

[Birchtree]

Zebe,

Welcome - you are correct in many respects. But timing is very difficult. Sometimes time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market. Once you get on the tracker you can show your stuff. Make us all squirm as you rocket to the top. The top level right now got there by avoiding the current correction - we'll see if they can hold the line when the bull returns. Anyway stop by anytime.

Poolman,

I would be interested in following your thoughts on individual stock selections and your strategies - makes life that more challenging. I'm currently sitting around $2.5M having just been devalued by $538K. I have about 60 remaining dividends to be paid this month so a sideways action is in my favor with pricing available ay these levels.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Everyone on this board noted that you stated around the first of May that you were to make your 2 million about sometime during the end of May. Now Birch, the TSP didn't permit you to make any profit toward that 2.5 mil you speak of. So how did you come buy that sudden .7 mil? If it was by your stocks and commodity holdings, fine for you, but most, if not all of us, are interested in mainly TSP earnings. I could flaunt my real estate holdings as part of my TSP earnings but I'm sure that is not the purpose of this board although I could get some texts about my TSP talk boundary perceptions. BTW, May was a down month as is June so far. Not much gain during these May and June months. Certainly not the 1200 S&P you predicted on May 1st.

I'm glad I'm retired because I can finally say what I feel and know is right. Hogwash. It was a bitch having to nod and smile while idiots were calling the shots at my old office. No more toothy smiles from me. I'm busy trying to make and keep my money using the TSP and the TSPtalk. As I've said before, it would be best if some posters had an asterisk by their posts. I'm game, put an asterisk by my posts. You all be careful out there during this market.

 

[WorkFE]

WOW Jimmy Joe, have a nice day

 

[visual]

You talk about having million in your TSP account. Did you hack in the tsp 's computer and get that money? With your strategy, you have gained 0% for the last six years. Maybe you don't have million in tsp account, you just think you do.

 

[KevinD]

Birch is king when the market is going up but a little downturn and he's the devil.

This is the information superhighway, folks. You have to take the information and do with it what YOU decide. The seven sentinels haven't done so well on the last 2 buy signals.

Most systems eventually go up in smoke.

Systems fail, folks. Birch has a system and right now it's not doing so well.

 

[visual]

His tsp account has 0% gain for the last six years. Why peoplel think he is king of the market. This confused a newbie like me when I first starting reading this board.

 

[OBGibby]

Pretty damn funny. A lot of hate and discontent and bitterness. As if Birchtree is Thriftus, the God of IFTs. Read, agree and disagree, ignore, etc. Caveat emptor...

Just like assholes, everyone has an opinion on the best strategy - as if everyone is in the same boat. Comparing apples to oranges over and over again on the Board...

I enjoy Birch's optimism just as much as I enjoy the pessimism of his detractors from time to time. Keep it up Old Man!

 

[crws]

hear hear- beeeeg picture :laugh:

 

[Bullitt]

You talk about having million in your TSP account. Did you hack in the tsp 's computer and get that money? With your strategy, you have gained 0% for the last six years. Maybe you don't have million in tsp account, you just think you do.

He has answered this question at least six times in the past posts. The only thing is, they usually come at the most gloomiest of times when everybody is angry at the system.

 

[alevin]

Poor Birchie. He's handling the commentary extraordinarily well the past couple days. Hey gang, it takes a fair bit of reading here to figure out where any one particular person is coming from and why they do what they do. Take your time understanding before leaping to conclusions about relevance for your situation. Everyone's circumstances are different, each must learn and decide on their own risk levels and strategies, which can change over time-just like the L funds do.

Birch has earned every penny of what he's accumulated and yes he has a lot more cushion under him than most of us do-which is the reason he's able to ride this storm better than most of the rest of us.

He understood a lot more about the market than I did 30 years ago (he also started working on his retirement at least 10-15 years before I did). And he had investment goals-long before I ever comprehended such a thing was possible. So for me to adopt his strategy-its waaaay too late. So I'm working on my own-now that I finally know what my investment goal needs to be. It's not too late for a young person here with 30 years ahead of them to adopt Birch's strategy-if they so choose.

Read and learn from many, take what you want and leave the rest.

 

[crws]

It always comes back, when it starts and from where is the question...
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/BADDECADE09.html

 

[Boghie]

Folks,

The AutoTracker doesn't tell the whole story. It is an exceptional tool. This MB is an exceptional tool. But unless we are willing to give up lots of privacy and Tom is willing to slave over lots of code we really cannot enhance the tools to encompass DCA.

Birch bought a ton of equity fund shares when they were significantly depressed. And, kept all of them. Those new shares really are not reflected in the AutoTracker since he doesn't change allocations much. But they are boosting his market value right now.

So, yes, Birch could have a higher market value now than he did a couple of years ago. This little 14% correction must be lived through if you are a buy and holder. Once it hits 20% maybe things will be different. We shall see.


Now, I normally am an infrequent reallocator. My 2008 - 2009 trading pattern is not normal. I was hoping to reinitiate a normal pattern this year - but, alas. Maybe too much kat is clouding the brain.

The danger of frequent trading is that you can lock in losses of share count. That is how Birch can walk right by you if the market booms. And, boom really isn't the right word. All he needs is for this correction to reverse. He will have days ot weeks of growth on us traders.

 

[crws]

 

[tsptalk]

Birch bought a ton of equity fund shares when they were significantly depressed. And, kept all of them. Those new shares really are not reflected in the AutoTracker since he doesn't change allocations much. But they are boosting his market value right now.

I have no reason to doubt B, except that I know he's retired, he is almost always 100% invested, yet he always seems to have cash to buy "a ton of equity fund shares" when the market is down. I know he reinvests dividends, but the rest doesn't add up. :suspicious:

 

[Warrenlm]

Lots had the impression he was 100% invested when suddenly he revealed he had $500k in CDs for a future home that he cashed in with wife's permission to buy stocks.

 

[amoeba]

No way does birchtree have + return last 2 yrs.

Folks,

The AutoTracker doesn't tell the whole story. It is an exceptional tool. This MB is an exceptional tool. But unless we are willing to give up lots of privacy and Tom is willing to slave over lots of code we really cannot enhance the tools to encompass DCA.

Birch bought a ton of equity fund shares when they were significantly depressed. And, kept all of them. Those new shares really are not reflected in the AutoTracker since he doesn't change allocations much. But they are boosting his market value right now.

So, yes, Birch could have a higher market value now than he did a couple of years ago. This little 14% correction must be lived through if you are a buy and holder. Once it hits 20% maybe things will be different. We shall see.
===
The danger of frequent trading is that you can lock in losses of share count. That is how Birch can walk right by you if the market booms. And, boom really isn't the right word. All he needs is for this correction to reverse. He will have days ot weeks of growth on us traders.

Birch's IFTs are posted, as are mine. If Birch has more than he did 2 years ago, he would have had to have a 20% gain; and he was fully invested; generally 70/30 C/I funds. Plots of those funds reveals a 20-30% decline from 2 years ago. Now, he did put some money into S fund in summer 2009, but since he did not cash out, he lost money on that too.

As far as any advantage Birch has on me, it is limited to one day of action. I can move into his exact same distribution, and be what - let's see, about 1.8 + his negative 4.7% = 6.5% above him from now to eternity. But I ain't gonna do dat because, as poolman more strongly insinuated - we may be in for it. I'm willing to wait for an inflection in at least the 20 DMA before even thinking about moving money. The wild cards of stimuli have been played. It's time for the economy to move on its own - my guess for the economy AND the market (which can be different)- as Poolman and Corepuncher have recently indicated, is south in the short term.


As tsptalk says - - - birch's statements don't add up - - - at least not to the conclusion of a 2 yr positive return.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

If you have a million dollar account and take a 20-40% hit, that's a heck of a lot of DCA'ing to really make a difference as far as buying lower............guess "someone" has a really good job or something..............

 

[Boghie]

Folks,

This is getting intrusive. Since it has become so, why mess with abouts and sortas.
1. He was allowed to invest $22,000/year. That is $846/pp
2. His 2009 return was +27.78%
3. His 2008 return was -38.53%

I don't see a problem with Birch's statement of fact. I worked it very roughly using online tools. It is a bit dependent on when he reached the mil (not worth the research effort to me) but he can be a little ahead of his starting value in 2008 given his allocations and his DCAs. We are talking 30 months ago. And, he is now rather well endowed with many more C/S/I (ok Amoeba, C and/or S and/or I) shares than he had two years ago. Remember, compounding interest is something wonderful. And, he doesn’t lose share count if he doesn’t sell shares. He doesn’t lock in losses.

A microcosm:

1. He bought $846 of C for $7.86/share.
2. Those shares were worth $1,554 this April.
3. A market increase of $708 for that one DCA – Yummy.
4. He had many like that for the two years in question – Yummier.

Birch’s investment conviction is that you cannot really time the market. Even timers agree to some extent. That is why CH found only 15 folks to track amongst all those that have participated in the AutoTracker – i.e. those that did ok in 2008 and well in 2009. And, I think CH is probably the first to recognize that those 15 aren’t doing too well this year.

So, while I agree with most that ugly tops and ugly bottoms can be spotted and avoided (to some extent) the noise in the middle has proven difficult to play. Birch elects not to do so. Those who elect to do so – and consistently do it well – will reap enormous benefit. Are there any amongst us

My single problem with his strategy is that the market is reacting to non-market forces. Why are we in a bull market? Is it the higher taxes that are coming? The more intrusive and expensive regulation? The anti-business attitude? The penchant of this administration to shut down complete industries while some gubmint planners perform some study or whatever?

Why should the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush bull reenergize under Carter II?

Did we hit an obvious market top?