Birchtree's Account Talk

[crws]

I saw a rumour of 500k jobs in May
here's a tidbit fer ya
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20100515_5237.php

(excerpt)

If the economy produces jobs over the next eight months at the same pace as it did over the past four months, the nation will have created more jobs in 2010 alone than it did over the entire eight years of George W. Bush's presidency.
That comparison comes with many footnotes and asterisks. But it shows how the economic debate between the parties could look very different over time -- perhaps by November, more likely by 2012. More important, the comparison underscores the urgency of repairing an American job-creation machine that was sputtering long before the 2008 financial meltdown.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch, we should call ourselves 'The Lightening Rods'

That might help everyone to better visualize who we are.


I mean think about it -- we can take the biggest bolts of lightening and blow it all off and not let it phase us -- it's like we're made for it.


So Master Level Rods -- like me and you -- went through May totally unphased and remain unphased.

Then we can maybe gives others a variety of tittles like Junior Rods, Kiddie Rods, and so on.

 

[JamesE]

Steady, I thought you went to the Garage till fall??

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, I thought you went to the Garage till fall??

Nope, I haven't been there for quite awhile.

Once a lot of pieces started falling in place and I could see the bulk of the underlying dynamics; I realized the worse was over and we honestly were heading towards long range growth and stability.

Being such a pansyass over many years -- it was a very difficult transition for me and I had to start off kind of slow. :embarrest: So I put in maybe 20 or 30% and waited for the wiggles and shakes to fade and disappear -- then added some more. Eventually I got 90% IN and finally made it over the top.... so going 100% wasn't too hard from there.

Anyway -- as the buying opportunities began to blossom to the most beautiful flowers ever in May -- I switched my contributions to match my 30/70 (C/S) investments.

I don't see moving to the Garage until we've hit at least 19,000 and even then it's only after I'm convinced we're at a REAL TOP.

No, I'm good man. The Europe stuff doesn't bother me at all. The Gulf stuff doesn't bother me from a Market perspective and overall it certainly will not 'crash' the Markets.

Greenland will likely take the spotlight fairly soon as that appears to be the biggest event right now. They have totally been dependent on Denmark over the years. Essentially all their supplies and food and at least $160 M from Denmark a year to sustain things. Now they've got OIL Companies ready to make them super rich; and they've got the biggest 'Rare Earth' mine available as well (which is essential for many Green Technologies). China has over 95% of that Market -- so if Greenland would go with the mining of 'Rare Earth' that would all the more shift the balance of things and make them super BIG.

Well, whatever, I'm just enjoying the show.

 

[Birchtree]

"If history is any indication we should now be on the verge of one more explosive move higher before this cyclical bull expires and heads back down into the next leg of the secular bear." Of course I don't believe this but it's always good to be aware.

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/connor/2010/0603.html

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/insiders-continue-buying-the-dip

http://pragcap.com/intermodal-rail-traffic-hits-a-new-high

 

[Bullitt]

Big Bull, I'd love to join you on your BP ride, but I learned my lesson chasing yield in 2008. I think chances are good that they will not only completely eliminate that divvy, but that they will be bought out. Maybe Statoil will buy 'em out so you can consolidate some of your holdings.

 

[Warrenlm]

http://pragcap.com/insiders-continue-buying-the-dip

http://pragcap.com/intermodal-rail-traffic-hits-a-new-high

dip....dip....oh!....DIP.

I keep buying the TOP.

 

[Birchtree]

"If the correlation is indeed still intact, then the big worry lies in what the Nikkei pattern has to say about this summer. It shows a steep decline, similar to the message it had about the trend for Nasdaq in late 2007 and 2008."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/MCCLELLAN.html

This is a repost from another thread - but still worth repeating for any bears that read Betula papyrifera.

 

[alevin]

Birchie, we read B. tremuloides out here. Quake and tremble. But it's lovely in the fall, and critters eat the bark for survival in the wintertime.

 

[Birchtree]

The decline today actually looks worse than if feels - normally I'd be out $100K in the oceanic but so far only out $55K. The small caps are helping to blunt the decline. And I do have some dividends being reinvested so that is a positive. This just looks like a trading range building a base for the next leg up. The Obama people may step up and hold onto the Bush tax cuts that are about to expire to give the economy a push instead of a boot on its neck.

 

[Handballer]

dip....dip....oh!....DIP.

I keep buying the TOP.[/QUOTE]

Me too. I hate it!

 

[Birchtree]

So much for not feeling this decline - it has me in a painful grip. But I'll survive. I'm still going to hold my positions because Monday may be completely different with psychology.

 

[amoeba]

The decline today actually looks worse than if feels............This just looks like a trading range building a base for the next leg up...........The Obama people may step up and hold onto the Bush tax cuts that are about to expire to give the economy a push instead of a boot on its neck.

If this is a trading range (down 15% since 4/23), what are you calling a decline?

As for Bush's tax cuts, this is the best time ever to ditch them, bcz there aren't that many people with capitol gains to take advantage of those cuts.

BTW, I'm still waiting for that lesson you were going to give about me bailing early (1,135) in a correction like this. What's gonna happen? The market is going to bounce 10% in a day? These days? Ummm, doubt it.

And what, pray tell based on your last post, do you think would possibly cause any psychological change next monday? Not to say that might not happen, but if there would be a change, my guess it would NOT be for the better of confidence in the stock market. We shall see - - - soon.

 

[crws]

in Birchie's defense, you must admit the market is acting like a schizoid scared rabbit with ADHD.
I think it's the algo's that are creating a wide amount of chaos, however- hence the wild instantaneous trend swings one day to the next.
VIX doesn't seem to be reflecting the full drama at this point. Still hovering around 35.
Unfortunately, with all the embedded distrust in the markets today, this may be how it is.
My opinions are definitely revising along the lines of taking a couple bumps a month and immediately getting to safety.

This story seems to have all but disappeared, so no reliable link

Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research in Cincinnati, said volatility is likely to continue through the summer in part because some everyday investors who put money into the market before its drop in May are giving up. That leaves the pros who use automated trades to try to profit from moves in stocks.
“It just seems like it’s computers versus computers,” he said. “This volatility is probably here to stay, unfortunately, but that doesn’t mean that the market is going to collapse.”

 

[Birchtree]

Send in the clowns - never mind they're already here. I'm at least 0% S fund. A total over reaction to some economic weakess - and I'm not moving because this is fear and panic nonsense again. We are still in a correction not a 20% decline for a new bear market - life is getting better, just not today.

 

[Steadygain]

Send in the clowns - never mind they're already here. I'm at least 0% S fund. A total over reaction to some economic weakess - and I'm not moving because this is fear and panic nonsense again. We are still in a correction not a 20% decline for a new bear market - life is getting better, just not today.

Thanks Birch !!

In my own little way I tried to put a smile on faces as well.

I'm not moving because it would prove I'm not the dumbest guy in the world.

NOPE -- I'll wait until it drops maybe another 5 or 7% then I'll SELL and say. 'Hey look I bought here and sold there' So now it's guaranteed I lost all the shares and all the money.

But I've been trained for this 'Hurry up and WAIT'...

Well have a good weekend -- and I'll maintain my 0% in I as long as you maintain yours in S.

In the end you'll say, 'See I told you'

And I'll say, 'Yeah, whatever'....

and it'll be like growing up all over again

 

[crws]

Other than the Hungary panic, I wonder if this was a classic "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" market ploy with the jobs data so prevalent during the dot com era.
Of course it could just be a dip.... as evidenced here!:
http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...1930-market-recovering-faster-than-expected-1 :notrust::suspicious:

 

[amoeba]

Send in the clowns - never mind they're already here. I'm at least 0% S fund. A total over reaction to some economic weakess - and I'm not moving because this is fear and panic nonsense again. We are still in a correction not a 20% decline for a new bear market - life is getting better, just not today.

I didn't say 20%, you did. But let us see what that number is in the S&P:

.8 X 1,223 = 978

I'll remember that, and so will you if we hit it before the end of the month. As far as the selling opportunity, it's gone......that was one lame jobs number (especially the privates and temps vs. perms).....I'm expecting a follow thru decline next monday or tuesday.

 

[Birchtree]

"...in years when the 4 year cycle bottoms (which always occurs in late September/early October) and the stock market takes a significant hit prior to the 4-year cycle time low, the bottom is in most cases made well before the late September/early October period and the market usually ends up outperforming for the rest of the year. The market, once it completely stabilizes, will be able to proceed into the critical summer months on a much sounder footing now and the dominant path for stock prices in the months ahead will most likely be higher."

http://safehaven.com/article/17022/a-look-at-some-stock-market-echoes