Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"Onward to 12,000."

http://financialsense.com/economy/nolte/2010/0413.html

 

[Birchtree]

A nice $K day - let's see if tomorrow will be even stronger. I'm looking for Dow 12,000 by the end of May. My year end target remains Dow 17,000 and SPX at 1700.

 

[JTH]

A V-shaped bull leg following a V-shaped recovery. When was the last time you remember such a senerio? These are once-in-a-lifetime opportunities and we've had two handed to us over the last 13 months.

Freaken crazy!!!

 

[JTH]

This one's for you BT, some statistical evidence supporting buy & hold.

Thursday 4/15/10. Want to Make Money? Hold On!

 

[Birchtree]

Buying early and buying often - there are just so many opportunities that will appreciate in value: GT, JCI, AEO, TRW, SYY, OMN, RT, ARM. If we can tack on gains I'll do even more - no fear here my friends. The more you have in the more you win.

 

[Birchtree]

Anyone that is deep long the S fund should be prepared to get hammered like a fine piece of silver - real soon. Try and hold your position if you can because it will be painful.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Is your reasoning that the Mid caps are down .05 and heading lower at the bell?

 

[Steadygain]

Anyone that is deep long the S fund should be prepared to get hammered like a fine piece of silver - real soon. Try and hold your position if you can because it will be painful.

Thanks Birch !!

As my Mentor and Master has taught me: "No Pain - No Gain" and therefore I run to the railroad tracks ~~ instead of away from them.

BTW -- my nephew was telling me about some stock selling for like 17 cents and how he was planned on buying a thousand or more and was absolutely positive they would go up 50 cents or more like overnight.

Anyway as soon as he's telling me this stuff -- my immediate thought was WHY would anyone buy a stock selling for 17 cents.

Did you ever do that stuff Birch ?? Or have you always looked for the solid and established -- that may simply become wall flowers at a certain point?

 

[Birchtree]

"As of yesterday the market is higher 71% of the days out of the February bottom. Folks that is verging on parabolic. Parabolic advances never end well." This so reminds me of the time in February 1983. When the small caps broke while the large caps kept going up for another few months - then the large caps finally broke and the correction into November was in full swing.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16438/musical-chairs

 

[Boghie]

Birch,

Is Mindylou still avoiding her 'S Fund' Kibbles & Bits?

My Muggle is still gobblin' them up. I am concerned that the 'S Fund' grubs are going Schlitz and start turning sour. I don't want Muggle drinking flat skanky beer.

In other words, are you talking about a one day dump of 5% in the 'S Fund' - or, will it take a while?

 

[JTH]

He's peeing off his sticky pants, you know it's a cold day in hell when our resident Bull stops looking for bullish links to post...

Opps did I say peeing? I meant "peeling", perhaps it was a freudian slip?

 

[Birchtree]

It may take awhile - we don't want to scare the sinners but only trap them for the painful delivery lesson. There is such a wall of cash coming in right now that any decline may be slow and hardly noticeable unless they are really paying attention. I prefer the slow grind for the best move that is healthy - but the nervous bears may take it down rapidly and that will cause many to panic and scatter - not the best way to deliver the most pain. What will be misleading is that the C fund will continue to deliver performance as stock mutual funds load up from the exiting bond cash. Snort. Of course I may be all wet - but I will be prepared regardless. I just remember the spring of 1983 and what transpired - most investors don't go that far back in experience.

 

[nnuut]

SO, that's how you get them off~~ AH HA!

 

[Birchtree]

I predict that JTH will be one of the first to relinquish that 65% S fund position he has held for a few days. He just refuses to wear any style of sticky pants. You know those transports have him in such disarray and dishevelment. Keep up the nice grafts my friend.

 

[JTH]

I predict that JTH will be one of the first to relinquish that 65% S fund position he has held for a few days. He just refuses to wear any style of sticky pants. You know those transports have him in such disarray and dishevelment. Keep up the nice grafts my friend.

Thanks BT, and yes I do believe those Transports are flooring me through the roof. One tidbit, tomorrow is Options expiration and the 11th trading day of the month. The 11th being statistically the most positive middle of the month day. Regardless, those two factors should make for an interesting exit for the week. As we know, positive Fridays tend to lead to positive Mondays followed by positive Tuesdays.

 

[Birchtree]

JTH,

I hope you are correct. I really would like a $100K week and right now I'm $25K short. A nice rally would put me over the top - perhaps google will have everyone excited and ready to buy.

 

[Boghie]

I've consumed the most valuable resource TSPers have - both of my IFTs.

I used them to move fully into the market from a conservative allocation. Those moves have treated me well, but I will not be able to reset into the market if I bail.

I think I will ride this pig for as long as I can. We are in earnings season - and the dummies out there will be comparing year over year earnings. My guess is that da Boyz will ride the dummies for a week or so and start a 'slow' accumulation of cash.

Thus, pull 5% out of S and 5% out of I at the beginning of the last week in April. Then see what happens.

My biggest concern is that 'Muggle the Asset Allocation Prognosticating Cat' refused water from the tap. Cacat! (that's Latin):cheesy:

 

[Tsunami]

I just remember the spring of 1983 and what transpired - most investors don't go that far back in experience.

I stumbled across this link today that helps with comments like that:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SP/1983/0/continuous.html

The long bear market of the 70's and early 80's ended in August 1982, then 1983 continued a steady 10-month or so rally until June, then there was sideways consolidation for the rest of the year. Not sure why you're referring to 1983....this current rally has run longer and farther than that one.

Regarding the Hindenberg Omen, I expect we'll see it it August. Yesterday new highs were at a ridiculous 611 with new lows at just 8. That's going to take months to work towards the "Omen" criteria.

Looks like I got lucky (thank you Google!) when I trusted my gut and bailed out a few days earlier than planned yesterday, futures are solidly down. Now the trickier part is figuring out when to get back in for the next rally up to 1228. The Elliott wavers will be excitedly posting bearish charts tomorrow, but they'll be wrong again I think...I'll just be looking for a normal 3-leg ABC correction down. My goal is to get back in at least 2% lower than I got out, the 1170-75 area looks possible, anything more is getting too greedy for this initial dip.

 

[Boghie]

I stumbled across this link today that helps with comments like that:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/SP/1983/0/continuous.html

The long bear market of the 70's and early 80's ended in August 1982, then 1983 continued a steady 10-month or so rally until June, then there was sideways consolidation for the rest of the year. Not sure why you're referring to 1983....this current rally has run longer and farther than that one.

Regarding the Hindenberg Omen, I expect we'll see it it August. Yesterday new highs were at a ridiculous 611 with new lows at just 8. That's going to take months to work towards the "Omen" criteria.

Looks like I got lucky (thank you Google!) when I trusted my gut and bailed out a few days earlier than planned yesterday, futures are solidly down. Now the trickier part is figuring out when to get back in for the next rally up to 1228. The Elliott wavers will be excitedly posting bearish charts tomorrow, but they'll be wrong again I think...I'll just be looking for a normal 3-leg ABC correction down. My goal is to get back in at least 2% lower than I got out, the 1170-75 area looks possible, anything more is getting too greedy for this initial dip.

Nice to have that remaining IFT, eh...

Uuuuugggggghhhhh

 

[FAB1]

Thanks BT, and yes I do believe those Transports are flooring me through the roof. One tidbit, tomorrow is Options expiration and the 11th trading day of the month. The 11th being statistically the most positive middle of the month day. Regardless, those two factors should make for an interesting exit for the week. As we know, positive Fridays tend to lead to positive Mondays followed by positive Tuesdays.

Rod posted in the "Bear" thread it was UPS that drove up the Transports, so I guess it is not so much a danger sign?