Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"The A/D line (which usually tops out many weeks before the widely followed averages) is still making new highs. Sullivan is recommending that aggressive traders use margin."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/veteran-letter-says-ad-line-signals-bull-market-2010-04-08
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Birch,
I seriously don't know how to take your thinking. Somehow I'm deeply convinced that you are expecting some very huge correction to occur over the next 6 months or more.
NOW -- you may be right and I honestly don't believe anyone can predict the Markets with perfect accuracy.
I, on the other hand, see the Markets getting better and better and am putting more IN as time goes on.
This feels 'really strange' talking to you this way. It's like a Bear talking to a BULL -- and somehow we're trading places.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
I'm trying to plan ahead remaining cognizant of the two year and four year cycles that will be nesting during the summer into fall - they could bring some pressure on the market. I want to move 5% off my I fund if If can see a $19.61 price before the month ends. The plan is to be 30% G by the end of July. This is from a previous post - "Since the 1942 market bottom, there have been 16 bull markets in the Dow. Of these, only nine have shown corrections of 10% or more. And there were never more than one 10% - or greater correction in any of these nine bull markets. So rather than being common place, pullbacks of this magnitude are relatively infrequent. As such, it is possible to see how they could be interpreted as the initial phase of major market declines. This would be especially true when the correction occurred at the mid-point or later in the bull market, as was the case in six of the nine sell-offs." I'm willing to sacrifice some further upside inorder to be prepared to take opportunity of some good pricing on the downside.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
The plan is to be 30% G by the end of July.
Thanks Birch !!
Much appreciated cause all I remembered were some bits and pieces. :embarrest:
And you don't want me questioning your reasoning
or ever wondering what the hell
cause that's NOT cool
OK -- now I'm good !! Time for lunch
BTW -- was going to add more today (if I have another IFT) so far so good.
- Reaction score
- 1,591
There you go Birch. I never thought it could happen, but I think this deserves a "Friends Don't Let Friends Buy and Hold" T-shirt. As a perma-bull, would you dare wear it in public?
I can't hear you!
Amoeba does not comment on individual stocks because this is a TSP website; BTW - 30% G still doesn't get you out of the stocks - you are a buy and holder, you have sinned, you have abandoned your child!!!
Say it!!! I can't hear you!!!!
LOUDER!!!!!
YOU HAVE ABANDONED YOUR CHILD!!!! YOU HAVE ABANDONED YOUR BOY!!!!
OUT WITH THE DEVIL!!!! OUT I SAY!!!!!!
(in other words, when you are >50% G after maing a move, then you can talk about having some strategy besides buy-and-holding; 30%? that's pretty close to buying and holding to me).Re: I can't hear you!
Amoeba does not comment on individual stocks because this is a TSP website; BTW - 30% G still doesn't get you out of the stocks - you are a buy and holder, you have sinned, you have abandoned your child!!! OUT WITH THE DEVIL!!!! OUT I SAY!!!!!!
Welcome to the Future
More power to (B or them),
B has come to see things, the way I do,
Jump in or Out, Be Quick, HELL(-$$$) gets HOT Quick!!
DB
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: I can't hear you!
BTW - 30% G still doesn't get you out of the stocks - you are a buy and holder
and therefore remain the KING.
Well Birch ~~ I from the depths of my heart appreciate the influence you've had on me -- and I'd have to agree with him -- you are the KING.
I am way better off going for the LONG TERM and it feels wonderful.
Thank You !!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
I was just thinking that I've made 817 dollar cost averaging purchases since June 26th '09 - and now it appears all those buys are starting to kick especially on a day like today - has me wondering what will happen Monday. My goal is still to make 1000 buys before June 26th '10 rolls around. Money does make the world go round. Snort. My darn BTH was up $16 today - how many more jumps like that can I handle.Re: I can't hear you!
hardy harr harr. you know I didn't say that (birchtree is the king):laugh:
the only thing birchtree and I agree on is that he is a permabull buy-and-holder.
BTW, I just looked at the SPY chart, and we are now all the way back to 1999 levels. Whoopee!!!!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"It turns out that starting around 6 months into cyclical bulls within secular bears, the kind of SPX levitation act we are seeing is typical. The stock markets initially rocket higher out of their secular-bear lows, but then they start relentlessly grinding higher without any major corrections. Pullbacks are seen periodically, but these are pretty small relative to the massive moves higher."
http://safehaven.com/article-16366.htm by Adam Hamilton
I'm trying to figure out what you just said (well, almost everything you say has some sort of contradiction, but this one is a bit extreme); i.e., if you are a buy and holder you didn't make any money since April 1999 because you bought and held.
If you mean "become" a buy and holder through may, then you weren't a buy and holder.
I might just buy and hold for a little while, then I'll bail.:toung:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: I can't hear you!
Thanks for taking it in the spirit it was intended
Have a great weekend
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"They see the equity market rising 20% by year end."
http://pragcap.com/jp-morgan-good-q1-leads-the-way-higher
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
From TWSJ 4/09/10. "The magnitude of this rally is directly correlated to the magnitude of the crash that preceded it. It's almost like reverse gravity. I'd say the market is having a mormal pause around the latest round-number barrier, but it's nothing to worry about, said Louise Yamada. We've just been barreling forward otherwise, so it should make it through.
The Dow last closed above 11000 on Friday, Sept.26,2008, just over 10 days after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The following Monday, the House of Representatives rejected the Bush administrations's $700 billion financial-rescue package, sending the measure down 778 points in one day, its largest point decline in history. (That was the day I got hit with a $241K devaluation in my oceanic account - not to mention the pain in the tugboat.) The recovery since the March 2009 bottom has been driven largely by historically low interest rates and extraordinary programs to stimulate the economy." Ah, but life is good and I'm working on my second million off the March 9th bottom - took in $77K last week and hope to do better this week. So at week #57 I'm up $1148K - gotta keep that momentum going till at least the end of July.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
"Of course, insiders sell for various reasons so high level of selling should be taken with a grain of salt, however, the very low levels of buying are clear evidence of skepticism with regards to the sustainability of any recovery." The SPX VIX is getting crushed today - that is marvelous. It's time to buy.
http://pragcap.com/insider-buying-hits-record-lowSimilar threads
