Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Bob Prechter says; "It's the end of the world. The bond market is the biggest bubble in the history of the world." I'll be there to pick up the pieces - you can bet on that. The main refutation of the multi-month correction would be a move higher today that closes above conjestion at 1120. Breaking through 1120 is a bullish sign and should mean that it can keep going until its next level of resistance at 1158 and then on to 1228 where it will have retraced 61.8% of its losses. A close above 1158 takes out the 160 month moving average and establishes without doubt that we are in bull mode. My oceanic took in $47K yesterday and wouldn't I like to do the same today. Be in to win.

 

[Frixxxx]

Roger, on 1120...need to hold here today......

Watching Thursday.....could be signs of more Unemployment number freak-outs, especially with that jobs bill not making any progress. I hate Unemployment Fridays.....

Love the 1158 number...I would be on track to make my year goal by May when everyone goes into trader limbo.

Top-notch on the research BT.

 

[fedgolfer]

Roger, on 1120...need to hold here today......

Watching Thursday.....could be signs of more Unemployment number freak-outs, especially with that jobs bill not making any progress. I hate Unemployment Fridays.....

Love the 1158 number...I would be on track to make my year goal by May when everyone goes into trader limbo.

Top-notch on the research BT.

Frixxxx, sounds like a lot of us are on the same boat with IFT mgmt this month... that double top is the dangling carrot in the short term chart. If we hedged with the ES futures or currencies, holding on for that ~1150'ish all of a sudden becomes significantly less risky.

 

[Birchtree]

"In fact, long term, we continue to see evidence that a robust business-led recovery is underway. Industrial production has increased at a 9.7% annual rate over the past seven months. That's the fastest initial seven months of a recovery we've seen. In 1975, production expanded 7.4%. In 1983, production expanded 6.8%. As corporate earnings increase, spending on equipment increases, employment increases, and consumer spending eventually increases. So after six to nine months of choppiness, the bull market will have a chance to get back on track and we can begin to make new progress in that long-term DJIA chart."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17597.html

 

[Birchtree]

I see a lot of good folks chasing the momentum of the S fund - buying in on the highs over $17.16. This could be a mistake especially on the 100% positions. I'm ready to start pulling some of my S fund back in the next few days. The VIX continues to drop - now below 19 at the 18.67 level. The yearly low is around 17.55 and that's when I moved some I fund out at $19.05. I'm keeping the four year cycle low in the back of my mind.

 

[kar_crazy]

I see a lot of good folks chasing the momentum of the S fund - buying in on the highs over $17.16. This could be a mistake especially on the 100% positions. I'm ready to start pulling some of my S fund back in the next few days. The VIX continues to drop - now below 19 at the 18.67 level. The yearly low is around 17.55 and that's when I moved some I fund out at $19.05. I'm keeping the four year cycle low in the back of my mind.

so you might transfer your S to the C ??

 

[Birchtree]

No, I will transfer 5% of my S fund to the lily pad for the month of March. My plan is to be 30% in the G fund by the end of July in preparation for the nesting of the 4 year cycle - ride the down cycle and then shift the 30% back to the S and I fund. If I get caught in another consolidation before then I'll simply move sooner back on the lows. Every little bit helps.

 

[Britts4life]

No, I will transfer 5% of my S fund to the lily pad for the month of March. My plan is to be 30% in the G fund by the end of July in preparation for the nesting of the 4 year cycle - ride the down cycle and then shift the 30% back to the S and I fund. If I get caught in another consolidation before then I'll simply move sooner back on the lows. Every little bit helps.

If you believe that after some period of time the value of the S, C or I fund will be lowered why would you be willing to leave 70% of your resources to experience a reduction? Just curious.

 

[Birchtree]

No one knows the outcome of the market scenarios - all one can do is hedge their bets. Leaving 70% up for pain is my way of hedging just incase the market refuses to endorse a 10% or better correction. I will never be 100% on the lily pad at any time - it's just the way a contrarian invests. If we catch the NYSE strength today the Dow will close up over 50 points. Everyone should remember we are in a secular bull market.

 

[Birchtree]

"We may want to hold at least half of the position as the SPX appears to have formed an intermediate term reverse head and shoulders pattern which projects to 1170 (distance from neckline to head is 65 points added to neckline break)."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17595.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Wall street wisdom and market cycle investment management."

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3911007

 

[Warrenlm]

I don't know if the act of retiring from Federal Service has been the cause, but you've been much more forthcoming in your reasoning and strategy than in the past. I for one appreciate it.

 

[Birchtree]

Investors Business Daily has updated their market outlook from negative to positive. My oceanic account has now taken in $69K in the last two days - I'm still holding out for the $1M and need another $75K to get there - the end of this week will be week #52 from the March bottom. So I'll just be patient and see how close the market will let me come to my goal. $75K in three remaining days is possible if I don't have to give any back.

 

[Frixxxx]

Where you at and what you doin today????

You mentioned peeling a little off "S". If so, where ya puttin it???:blink:

 

[Birchtree]

What can make me feel this way - I say money, We could take out 10,500 today. When I move my 5% S fund amount it will be to the lily pad. I noticed Anthony is already doing a little reverse DCA of 10% to the G fund.

"These traders have been on the wrong side of the trade since the very beginning of the rally and this data could be further contrarian evidence that supports a bullish outlook for the markets."

http://pragcap.com/small-speculators-remain-very-bearish

 

[Birchtree]

"Analyst are now calling for $78 in operating earnings for FY 2010. The 2011 estimates have also surged. Analysts now expect $94 in operating earnings for 2011. That would represent back to back years of 20% earnings growth - something that has never happened before in the history of the U.S. equity market."

http://pragcap.com/earnings-estimates-becoming-a-concern

Could this be what the omnipotent discount mechanism of the market is telling us. If these earnings come to fruition we are going much higher on the SPX.

 

[Birchtree]

The Yammer knocked the market down again as usual - eventually the market will recognize his lame duck status and pay him no attention. I'm looking for the last hour to regain its strength.

"The stock market's volatility index (VIX) has fallen in 14 of the last 15 sessions, marking its longest downward streak since the market bounced off its early March 2009 trough."

http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/?p=9356

 

[anthony]

What can make me feel this way - I say money, We could take out 10,500 today. When I move my 5% S fund amount it will be to the lily pad. I noticed Anthony is already doing a little reverse DCA of 10% to the G fund.

"These traders have been on the wrong side of the trade since the very beginning of the rally and this data could be further contrarian evidence that supports a bullish outlook for the markets."

http://pragcap.com/small-speculators-remain-very-bearish

Quite observant of you Mr Birchtree. I'm feeling like things are topping a bit, but I just can't be convinced that it's done either (still looking for Dow 10,700. 10% to the pad today gives me a little bit to play with later.

The conclusion graphic in the "Dow Quick Technical Update" portion of this article has me a little concerned because it seems to paint a picture that the so-called imminent correction may be coming a little sooner than our summer expectations. I'm thinking of using the "sell in May, then go away" adage this year. Your thoughts would be appreciated on this scenario.

 

[Birchtree]

anthony,

If you sell in May and go to the lily pad I'll for sure pass you on the tracker. I'm going to stick with my strategy of preparing for the nesting of the four year low sometime after July - that'll provide our first probable 10% correction. All I have to do is wait for it. With four tours under your belt I'd like to own your bank account. You do know you can put up to $45K into your TSP account while deployed.

 

[Steadygain]

You do know you can put up to $45K into your TSP account while deployed.

Man that reminds me of a new hire -- that shaddowed me a little.

Apparently got a $30K increase over the previous job.

So of course I bring up the TSP and even showed this site. I'm stressing over and over that you've got to put the max in and if you don't feel like you can afford to do that ...

...then that's all the more you need to.

Well anyway I'm putting 16% in and with the 5% add = 21%

Their contribution is 3% -- has some other account with $1,000 and told me that like -- 'hey I'm not doing too bad'

I simply do not get it Birch -- I mean retirement is going to be here way before people realize. Very few honestly appear like they will anywhere near be prepared.

If your FERS -- and you don't have private accounts building up -- the TSP is very huge.

Does anyone know how much is in the average TSP account ??