Birchtree's Account Talk

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The intraday VIX on Monday was the 19.59 level - we should take this level out tomorrow. If the jobless claims are better than expectation the SPX could be up 20 points. And if the GDP revision is over 6% on Friday...who knows how high is higher.
 
Birchtree said:
The intraday VIX on Monday was the 19.59 level - we should take this level out tomorrow. If the jobless claims are better than expectation the SPX could be up 20 points. And if the GDP revision is over 6% on Friday...who knows how high is higher.
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:laugh:What flavor of CRACK are you smokin, brother?:laugh:

Seriously tho' UE# are down on a short month always. But a 6.0 GDP? WOW, I'm in, but I'd be buyin Dom Perignon if that happened!:cool:
 
This one shot in -- and out each month is messed up.

My plan at this point is to wait for a really decent drop -- jump in and take 1 or 2% and get out fast. You're the only one I'm telling. I'll be #17 on the AT at the end of the year.
 
It's just another day out in the woods running from the bears. Although today is not really as bad a hit as Tuesday. Let's see if we can reduce the loss by 50% on the close - come on you dip buyers show some courage.

"It's much more likely that we are just seeing random noise here than that there is a fundamental change in the ecomomy's direction afoot."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/02/weekly-claims-progress-derailed.html
 
"Abstracting from the monthly npise, business investment is up at an annualized rate of 15.5% since hitting a low last April. That's a strong rebound by any definition. Business investment like this will create a good base for future productivity gains and eventually a return to new hiring."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/02/capital-goods-orders-tick-down-but.html

Durable goods orders actually soared past expectations in January, growing 3% versus an expected 1.5%. No bull tinky there.
 
Steadygain said:
This one shot in -- and out each month is messed up.

My plan at this point is to wait for a really decent drop -- jump in and take 1 or 2% and get out fast. You're the only one I'm telling. I'll be #17 on the AT at the end of the year.
Click to expand...

Good plan, Steady!! I hope you're in at least the top 10!!

Lobo :)
 
Birchtree said:
It's just another day out in the woods running from the bears. Although today is not really as bad a hit as Tuesday. Let's see if we can reduce the loss by 50% on the close - come on you dip buyers show some courage.

"It's much more likely that we are just seeing random noise here than that there is a fundamental change in the ecomomy's direction afoot."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/02/weekly-claims-progress-derailed.html
Click to expand...

Not so sure we could call it "courage", Birch....but I did a little buying this week!!

Lobo :)
 
Birchtree said:
come on you dip s***
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Gosh Birch :mad: you made me say a bad word

I forgot that expression :nuts: -- but use to say it all the time

Lobo said:
Good plan, Steady!! I hope you're in at least the top 10!!

Lobo :)
Click to expand...

Thanks my friend !

If I'm in the top 100 I'll be feeling pretty good -- and if I'm in the top 50 -- will feel like the biggest pro ever ...

... I don't know my heart (and especially my head) could handle the top 10 -- but thanks -- I hope you're next to me if it does happen. ;)
 
This is a double post just in case it was missed in the market outlook thread.

"The reality we are living today far surpasses even the most optimistic forecasts of a year ago."

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2010/02/financial-conditions-another-v-shaped.html

If the GDP revision holds up tomorrow look for a rocket ride to SPX 1120 with ease - that was a nice comeback today from the lows down over 188 points on the Dow. I'm so darn bullish I can hardly stand myself.
 
Birchtree said:
If the GDP revision holds up tomorrow look for a rocket ride to SPX 1120 with ease - that was a nice comeback today from the lows down over 188 points on the Dow. I'm so darn bullish I can hardly stand myself.
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Hope that comeback wasn't "Hope" that the GDP will beat expectations....

Dom Perignon '00 = 122.00 USD
 
Birchtree


I'm thinking of starting a DCA routine of buying several groups of USAA mutual funds through my USAA account, all for my ROTH IRA. Each purchase is a minimum investment of 250.00 and I don't get charged for the transaction I normally get charged when I buy stocks.

Question is should I reinvest dividends, income and capital gains? Or should I use that money to reinvest in the next 250.00 block I think will perform the best?

While I'm at it, can you tell me the difference between the before and after expense ratio and if I should care about that for my ROTH IRA? Also, what range would you consider to be a decent expense ratio that doesn't rip me off.

As an example here is one of the funds I'm looking at. Thanks for your time, I'd appreciate your incites.

View attachment 8508
 
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JTH,

Personally I don't like to buy mutual funds unless I'm chicken winged into doing so - I'd rather build my own. Mutual funds only pay dividends and capital gains once a year where a stock will pay four times a year - there is more risk in a stock because you don't have diversification to help hedge the risk of a bad purchase. You could easily build a nice portfolio starting with five stocks and then grow from there. If your choice is the mutual funds the expense ratios look very cheap right there with Vanguard. And remember you can only put in $5000 per year - but the Roth is the way to go. No paper work to the IRS. The advantage of DCAing is that you are always buying even when you may not be paying attention - sort of like autopilot. I have at least 70 dividends due in March and I couldn't tell you who is paying with out looking and it doesn't matter as long as the money rolls in - if March is a weak month all the better. Dividend reinvestment becomes a self-feeding strategy. The more the dividend the more stock bought - three months later the dividend is higher because you now have more stock. I leave my dividend reinvestment prices strictly up to fate. Rather like buying into my tugboat account (TSP) way back in the summer and fall of 2008. I hope this helps.
 
Birchtree said:
JTH,
Click to expand...
Thanks, I'm thinking of choosing this route becuase this account doesn't have a lot of money, so the tranaction fees kill my profit potential. Plus it gives me a way to invest in things not offered through TSP like the emerging markets. If I had more cash in this account I'd likly take the route you sugeest. So for now I'm just trying to build the snowball.

Thanks for the help, do I care about the before/after expense ratio?
 
The mutual fund will have to charge you something to pay their overhead costs and their printing. I wouldn't worry about those very low expense ratios - you're in good hands with USAA. But you could buy some very nice high yielding pipelines in the energy sector. Just a thought.
 
Birchtree said:
....you could buy some very nice high yielding pipelines in the energy sector......
Click to expand...

I like EVEP myself, pays about 12%, about $75 quarterly on 100 shares. And it's so undervalued you're unlikely to see much capital loss unless oil really tanks again.
 
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