Birchtree's Account Talk

[Warrenlm]

I did an IFT for COB 2/15 going from 5G/70C/15S/10I to 65C/15S/20I. I moved a 5% position from the I fund at $19.05 when the VIX was bottoming around 17.43. I would like to get back into the I fund at around $17.35 or a little less. I still plan to move 5% off the S fund when the VIX comes back under the 20 level and the S fund is priced above $17.00. The I fund will probably be back to the $19.50 range by then. My plan is to still be 30%G fund by the end of July waiting on the 10% correction.

Thanks for this detail. It had appeared that your plan was to be 100% G when the 10% correction came and certainly not to move your current 5% G back into stocks. This detail appears to make your strategy in the TSP one of building a cash reserve to buy in at lower prices.

 

[Birchtree]

"Market trying to carve a bottom. This combination of high oscillators, a black candle and negative divergences on the stochastic's tells me that the worst of the market correction has already taken place."

http://safehaven.com/article-15799.htm

Warrenlm,

I put $123K back to work this past week and I'd really like to do the same in our next four trading sessions. The question is how long will it take to get back to Dow 10,758 and when we do that how much longer will it take to get to the 200 week MA at Dow 11,160. If we can push through the 50 day MA at 1111 we will definitely rally further and I want to buy all the way up. I don't mind buying higher and then even higher. Once we get past the 1082.90 on the 24 month EMA the bull will be confirmed.

 

[Birchtree]

"JP Morgan: Trade Short, But Invest Long. Their medium term view remains quite constructive as they see continuing upside based on the economic recovery, strong earnings, and supportive government actions."

http://pragcap.com/jp-morgan-trade-short-but-invest-long

 

[Birchtree]

"In terms of markets, the Sun-Neptune conjunction is a strong Level One signature, which means it is in a select group of geocosmic signatures that have the highest correspondence to primary cycles in U.S. stocks within an orb of two weeks. In fact, it has a historical rate of frequency here of 79%, one of the highest correspondences of all signatures in Financial Astrology." Stand back Oscar and admire.

http://www.mmacycles.com/

 

[Birchtree]

"Dollar momentum is pointing lower - price action will follow soon."

http://safehaven.com/article-15813.htm

 

[airlift]

"Dollar momentum is pointing lower - price action will follow soon."

http://safehaven.com/article-15813.htm

Thank you for posting this information.

 

[JTH]

"Dollar momentum is pointing lower - price action will follow soon."

http://safehaven.com/article-15813.htm

Birchtree I didn't see anything in there to indicate the dollar was pointing lower. Yes it is pointing lower, but that's a short-term call when it's still within a rising channel yet to establish a lower low.

But since you want to be Bullish and our like-minded TSP members come here to get their bull on, I'll post a chart of Silver. The general theory being silver goes up, the dollar goes down, and stocks go up. SLV has recently completed a Head & shoulders formation and fell slightly short of my 13.88 price objective. The good news is we appear to have put in a solid bottom, based on the exhaustive candlestick spike low supported by the spike in volume. The only thing I'm waiting for is for the stochastic to break out. This may be a great short-intermediate term entry point.

Or it could be a Bear Flag...

View attachment 8377

 

[Birchtree]

"Something that has bullish implications occurred on Friday: the SPX opened lower, and in the first hour was down 15 points with net declining NYSE issues of -2108. That was the low point of the day. By the close, the index was still down -2.96, but the A/D closed a positive 172. Such a rapid A/D recovery from a very negative number of issues in the first hour is unusual and I don't recall ever seeing it before. It smacks of accumulation and adds to the list of bullish signs appearing at this level."

http://safehaven.com/article-15816.htm

 

[KevinD]

Just couldn't stand it, could you? :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

The easiest thing to do on a day like today is to do nothing - but with the VIX heading into negative it's time to buy. I've been waiting for the SPX to get above the 24 monthly EMA which currently is holding the 1082.90 level and we are now at 1088.43 and perhaps heading higher. So into the arena I go.

 

[Birchtree]

A little DCAing into my base: AKS, AP, PXP, DOW, and a couple for the lamb chop: GCI, CXG. I think I'm just getting warmed up. Buy'em when you can because tomorrow they will only cost more.

 

[Birchtree]

A few more nibbles into the oceanic base: MDR, MAS, VHI, TEN. There are just so many lovely wall flowers needing comfort. If we can hold above the 130 level I'll add a few to the lamb chop portfolio. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

This market is just gently pushing me further into the arena. Just bought for the lamb chop portfolio: MEE, BTU, JCI. And tomorrow is another day of rapid gains I surmise.

 

[Birchtree]

This could get really interesting in the next 30 minutes already up 160. Many don't understand what a 3rd wave can do to ones technical work.

 

[Steadygain]

Many don't understand what a 3rd wave can do to ones technical work.

I seriously DO NOT understand

It's like the Markets are totally ignoring all the guys that really know their Rahm (YOU excluded :embarrest -- and it seems no matter how convincing everything apparently adds up...

.... the Markets just keep Soooarrring higher and higher

This is like th coolest thing ever ... cause I'm dumb enough to believe the worst .... and I keep expecting it.

My guess is a 3rd Wave -- is like a raging out of control fire that is not easily quinched :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

The center point of a 3rd wave will have the most amount of participation by both breadth and volume charts - this wave is starting to gain traction and many will miss it. All rallies are preceded by declines and the bigger the decline the bigger the rally.

 

[Birchtree]

"Paulsen: Secular bull may be coming - if inflation held in check."

http://theguruinvestor.com

 

[Birchtree]

"A 45 percentage point drop in the average recommended exposure level, especially in so short a period of time, suggests that by no means are we seeing the kind of stubbornly held bullishness that is a hallmark of major market tops."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarians-say-this-is-only-a-correction-2010-02-16

 

[Birchtree]

"Small speculators have been skeptical of the rally since its inception and remains so. More importantly, they have been wrong. Small speculators as a contrarian indicator is likely to continue working."

http://pragcap.com/small-speculators-remain-bearish-4

 

[Birchtree]

The primary trend of the stock market according to Dow Theory would be confirmed as bullish if the DJIA and DJTA can close above their January highs at 10,725 and 4262. Watch the lows at 9908.39 and 3792.89 if we close below these levels then the market is confirmed as bearish. With our current momentum we could be back to new highs by the end of this month - wouldn't that be a splendid surprise. The Birchtree remains in buy mode, looking for the market to move higher into March. I want to see that one way ramp up stampede rally to put more fear into the MB.