Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"The R2K index at 645 is up 82.2% since the March 9 low, but still down 26.9% from the July 13, 2007 high. The AAII bullish sentiment is back in the neutral zone at 41%. Downside risk is probably limited to periodic mean reversions towards the rising 200-day moving average at 9249. Currently I maintain that we are still in the second psychological perception stage of the bull market, characterized by the wall of worry. With any luck, we can look forward to the third and climatic stage of a bull cycle, in which investors become euphoric." I'm already euphoric.

http://safehaven.com/article-15445.htm

 

[Birchtree]

A few words from Michael Murphy: "I still believe we will see the S&P at or above 1250 during this cycle, which ends on March 22. But as I have said over and over we won't know if this is a powerful bear market rally or a new bull market until the S&P decisively clears 1250, comes back down for a successful test of that level as support, and then clears the recovery high."

Right out of the opening this morning the VIX tumbled right on through the 17 level into the 16 level - I think we will rally strongly before we close again. The NYSE is holding relative strength.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch, you sound pretty 'Bullish'

Have you noticed that those remaining fully invested are at the TOP
Those who remain scared -- in safety -- are at the BOTTOM.

Do you believe this indicates something ??

 

[FAB1]

Birch, you sound pretty 'Bullish'

Have you noticed that those remaining fully invested are at the TOP
Those who remain scared -- in safety -- are at the BOTTOM.

Do you believe this indicates something ??

Hmm...Im a real noobie but will venture a guess.

It indicates in a Bull Market those who are adverse to Risk keep it parked it the GeeFund and thus their returns are small. And those of us willing to "play" emphatically will make all the lovely $$money$$. Are you in the Gee, Steady?

thot so. :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

I'm patiently waiting on a show of strength today so I can do a little buying. Just trying to follow my strategy of pyramiding up my long exposure as profits increase. I did move 5% from the I fund to the G fund COB tomorrow. That was a nice move on the VIX early into the 16 range.

 

[jeepcj258]

I'm patiently waiting on a show of strength today so I can do a little buying. Just trying to follow my strategy of pyramiding up my long exposure as profits increase. I did move 5% from the I fund to the G fund COB tomorrow. That was a nice move on the VIX early into the 16 range.

Birch has moved $$ to the G fund.... I did not think I would ever see that in writing.

 

[Birchtree]

I plan to gradually shift out of the I fund by the time $24 rolls around. I plan to be out of the S fund by the time $20 rolls around - a little preparation for the future.

 

[Birchtree]

Back to chasing the bull and bought: HAL, PCX, POL, GBX, FOE, PXP. If we rally up a little stronger in the last hour I have more wall flowers wanting attention.

 

[Boghie]

Birch has been talking about a mild mannered reallocation for months.
He is doing just what he said he was going to do.
A little bit later, but it is his money.

Then he swings!!!

100% G
100% I
100% F
100% :nuts:

 

[steveg]

Holy cow --

Birch putting money into G? :blink:

By the way Birch, nice job in '09. You smoked me like a cheap cigar. The economic problems I believe exist are no less "gone" than they were months ago, IMO -- but you correctly, and I incorrectly, played the market nonetheless.

Steve

 

[GUCHI]

I plan to gradually shift out of the I fund by the time $24 rolls around. I plan to be out of the S fund by the time $20 rolls around - a little preparation for the future.

birch/MB

That $24 for the I fund, are you figuring years down the road or year end ?

thanks

 

[Steadygain]

I did move ... to the G fund COB tomorrow.

Whoa Birch !!

When one of my kids says something 'Earth moving' I often say, 'Wow go write that on the calander' so we'll remember the day it happened. :nuts:

I'd have to say Birch -- this is the first time I've ever honestly heard you say anything like this. :worried:

I'm sending Gretchen and Heidi down on the next flight Birch. They are professionals and I'm a little concerned.

Luv ya bro, just let them do their thing and you should be a lot better by the end of the week.

 

[Birchtree]

Just standing in front of the train my friends and ready to out race Ferdinand with my New Balance running shoes. More buying: ACI, MDR, LTD, ZEP, CMC, BLT.

GUCHI,

The I fund may be in the $24 range by the end of June and the same is true of the S fund in the $20 range by the end of June.

Can you smell it today - the sweet smell of superlative bull manure - watch where that VIX ends the day.

 

[GUCHI]

birch

superlative bull manure, does it sorta smell like a bouguet of roses sitting alongside a pot roast. if it does I smell it !!!!!

thanks

 

[Birchtree]

"Rallies and bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects. Periods of cheap money policy - low interest rates and sharp increases in money supply - have always resulted in bubbles. Since the rally began, there have been very few true believers. Like generals who tend to fight the last war, investors fail to adjust to what the market gives them. All bubbles are marked by a euphoric period when almost all investors are drawn in. It's when fear and greed, the two most powerful market forces, are working together. Greed brings many investors in. (Birchtree) Fear of missing out brings in the rest. The rational person would naturally expect the resulting bubble to be bigger and last even longer."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16382.html

 

[JTH]

It seems the G-funders keep waiting for a supposed pullback to dip in. i remember well how it sucks to be in that situation, watching investors make money while you collect pennies on the sidelines...

 

[Birchtree]

I heard Dr. Bob say today that the 4000 points off the March 9th low has simply been a clawback from the oversold and irrational panic of 2008 - 2009. The real rally started at Dow 10,000 and will proceed accordingly. Tom showed us 2006 but I'm stuck back in 1995.

 

[Birchtree]

"....you should know the chances of returning to a state of extreme bubble dynamics in stocks does in fact exist moving forward...It means stocks are most likely going higher, possibly much higher if extreme bubble like conditions were ever to return....however if money coming out of a very large bond bubble is looking for a new home, who knows how ridiculous stock valuations could get." I'm so ready.

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2010/0111.html

 

[Birchtree]

Jim Oberweis says, "Mark our words; Inflation is coming, and owners of long-term bonds will lose money. We believe that as bond returns begin to languish, money will flow from bonds to stocks, which tend to be more resilient in times of inflation.

 

[Birchtree]

"It's deja vu all over again"

http://bulls-bears-pigs.blogspot.com/2010/01/its-deja-vu-all-over-again.html