Birchtree's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Nuh-uh Steadygain

you will spoil the woman that way... :cheesy:

but what is sugarspice beef with you Birchtree?

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, you will never know how timely your advice is for me. Thanks for getting all mushy on us. I am being 100% serious.

Thanks,
Jack

Jack,
It has taken me many years to learn this truth and to finally recognize how beautiful and complete LIFE was meant to be. I am barely starting my journey ... have many years to put behind me and somehow allow what was meant to be -- to become reality.

Anyway, I try to be real -- Thank you too !!

 

[Birchtree]

She has always thought because I'm bullish that I'm leading MB members into a painful end. She goes bezerk when I tell her that getting hit by the train is refreshing. She keeps a 2x4 strapped to her shoes when she goes spelunking. Basically she has been a drive by shooter for several years and can be entertaining - but I always leave the porch light on for her. No harm done to my relevancy because I essentially have none - I'm just a simple investor that makes money. I think I'll buy myself some happiness today - stocks. I made more money yesterday than I expected.

 

[FAB1]

 

[Birchtree]

Making a few buys in front of the nfp train tomorrow. Bought so far today: KEY, ZEP, PVH, AEO, GE. My list just gets longer as we rally up - but I'm making money and it takes money to make money.

 

[Birchtree]

"Do NOT trade against this indicator."

http://safehaven.com/article-15413.htm

 

[Steadygain]

I'm still planning on pulling back some...

... I'll shift some I fund to the G fund.

Hey Birch,
Now that you're openly talking about shifting to G Fund, and you're going to church in a few weeks...


....I was wondering if you might be softening up on your view of Obama

So if Obama and his family were wanting to spend a few days in the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains...

...would you freely offer the Lakeside Home ??

OK -- it's off to lunch

 

[Birchtree]

Not hardly - nor to anyone that voted for him. A man has to have his pride. Now of course if he wanted to rent that would not be a problem.

 

[Birchtree]

"U.S. dollar forming a very nice bull flag - if nonfarm payrolls are half decent the dollar will rally which is exactly what this chart is saying."

http://safehaven.com/article-15423.htm

 

[Birchtree]

I've decided to cut a little rug today and work from Mindylou's buy list buying: WOR, WMK, WFC, WAB, VHI. I'm starting to feel a little anxious about tomorrow but will stand firm and if we rally strongly I'll work off more of Mindylou's list. Snort. A bull shouldn't necessarily feel a tight stomach in a bull market - but there is always that blind side surprise.

 

[Birchtree]

There was a lot happening today in front of the nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow. The VIX closed at 19.06 at a 52 month low. There is a wide megaphone pattern (google that one Sugar) and some are waiting for a reversal pattern to take hold. There are over 500,000 calls on the VIX and some are waiting for the VIX to spike and the SPX to fall. Not going to happen until the December to January resistance line is broken to the upside. I'm patiently waiting for the VIX to close into the 18 level and tomorrow just might do it - then I'm prepared to shift 5% from the I fund to the G fund. I'll be doing something like that until June.

 

[Steadygain]

VIX -- at barely over 19 !!
52 Year Low
Shifting to G Fund


Thanks Birch -- luv ya bro -- and man am I glad I'm in G

 

[Birchtree]

I'm sure glad I'm long and strong with this market. Now that we've had a nice run anytime the market consolidates in a sideways fashion rather than correcting - that's a show of strength and should not be faded. We've been basing since November into December and could be coiled for a strike on SPX 1200 or better. A lot of doubters got trampled today when we closed above 1141.69. Our current base providing a break out could be very powerful to the upside - kinda what I'm buying on. Steady, you won't be glad you're in G if the market explodes tomorrow with short covering pushing the Dow up 300 points on an excellent nfp report - I just can't miss this move. If I'm wrong - well there's next week and earnings are coming. Be in to win.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This process will result in the VXO and VIX eventually moving back into the 20s. That'll be the time to take some profits off the table.

VIX below 20 for seven of the last ten trading days.

 

[Birchtree]

I know, I know - but greed wants me to stay a little longer. Even a 5% shift is a sacrifice in this new bull market - but the blind side is waiting. Hopefully not until after March. I knew it would be difficult to play out this strategy - but I will move forward probably next week and then again in February.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, you won't be glad you're in G if the market explodes tomorrow with short covering pushing the Dow up 300 points.

Birch,
I seriously hope tomorrow is the biggest GAIN of the year.

Mainly because I miss Corepuncher and he has finally broken the seals to the Bunker and decided to go in. That is like HUGE for him Birch and the bigger part of me thinks .... rut rooo ..... now Hell will break lose and the biggest dive will take place.

Plus -- and I'm really serious about this -- I love it when the Markets go UP and keep going UP when most of those I consider 'The Experts' have me convinced to stay in safety.

All the more none of it makes any difference to me cause the year is just getting started and I'm not concerned in the least.

If it does go down -- it won't phase you -- you just tell everyone to seize the 'buying opportunities'

Well later man -- I need to head home (or cause trouble)

 

[Bullitt]

Birch, that's just it. Fear and greed my friend!

 

[Birchtree]

This has been previously posted some where in the back on this thread. "Lee Ann Sonders tells CNBC that historically, the stock market has actually performed best when consumer credit has been the weakest. And, she says that GDP, corporate profits, valuations, and the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus across the globe do indeed provide a number of fundamental reasons why stocks have been rising. We're in a multi-year bull market and your wall of worry from a few months ago is still well in place. We think it's going to be a great market for two or three years for large-cap quality." The current sideways consolidation has cooled off our overbought readings. If we break above 1150 SPX tomorrow the new higher highs buyers like myself will join in the fun. And I won't worry about volume - we haven't had any for months.

 

[Birchtree]

"Credit spread update. Fear subsides, prices rise."

http://www.scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

 

[Birchtree]

We're starting out just like yesterday - perhaps we'll close positive. My oceanic account is up $103K on the week - the question is how much will I be forced to give back today. If I can hold even I'll only be $61K away from the $1M off the March '09 bottom.