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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
ATCJeff
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Unwinding divergences and overbought oscillators without too much in terms of price loss can not be considered bearish by any means."
http://safehaven.com/article-14403.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"An interesting analogue for today is what went on in 2003. The market bottomed in March 2003. Then it climbed a wall of worry the rest of the year. The whole way up, people were saying that the market was expensive, and that we weren't seeing the necessary growth to justify the upward movement. Yet the market continued to go higher. Really, what happened is that the market correctly anticipated that you were going to see significant earnings growth in 2004 and 2005, and indeed you did. But the meat of the move in stock prices occurred in 2003. That's why Birchtree says buy early and buy often. Should the rally from the March lows proceed like we expect, we continue to expect hesitation periods at key technical resistance areas that test investor nerves."
http://www.fool.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
It would appear that Peggy Noonan is changing her stripes again. She was watching BHO during the dead Ted funeral and had this to say: "The president walked into the funeral and moved toward the front pews nodding, shaking hands. He hugged Mrs. Kennedy, nodded some more, shook more hands. He was dignified and contained, he was utterly appropriate, and he was cold.
He is cold, like someone who is contained not because he's disciplined and successfully restrains his emotions, but because there's not that much to restrain. This is the dark side of cool. One wonders if this will play well with the American people. Long-term it is hard to get people to trust your policies if they think you're coolly operating on some intellectual or ideological abstractions.
I don't think as a presidential style it will wear well with the center. And it may not wear well with the president's own party. They may come to see him, in time, as not really one of them. And that's when things will really get interesting."
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The futures are looking good all around - anybody buying in tomorrow will have to pay more and that includes me. But I don't mind. I've already made 400 individual stock buys since 6/26/09 and those purchases will start participating on the long side giving me more buying power to keep going. In a bull market you simply must buy early and often. I didn't buy for a few months off the March lows because I had already spent my money last fall so all I could do was free load. But now that I'm on margin buying power will come as gains are produced. I wouldn't be at all surprised if I make another couple hundred purchases before the year ends - respecting the bull of course. The SPX's 80 week moving average lies just overhead at 1060.
"The VIX burst out of the blocks on Monday and Tuesday but became complacent again by the end of the week. (see the graph). Two key things happened however. 1. We got a higher high and 2. The MACD got above zero. If the MACD crosses lower, the markets are likely to hover higher again, although even if that happens, it's only likely to be a short-term move. The mid term for the markets is looking more bearish now." It's a good thing I don't believe everything I read. We'll be at 23 by mid October and below 20 sometime in December - then I'll move the tugboat to dry dock for awhile.
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 163
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
My 'premium' service is free.
I don't know how to study technicals.
I don't read up on a company's fundimentals.
I don't review any businesses glowing corporate story.
And, this final line makes this commentary a Nostradamous Quatrain
Since I do absolutely nothing suave (or muave or whatever), I recommend a contrarian view to my allocations and contribution strategy. I have absolutely proven that my market timing has a negative correlation with reality
.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Then perhaps you will enjoy: http://mmacycles.com
"The third of the five passages of the Saturn-Uranus opposition will happen September 15 - during a Mercury retrograde cycle, no less."Re: Birchtree's account talk
I have absolutely proven that my market timing has a negative correlation with reality.
Boy oh boy, Can I relate to that ! :toung:
Boghie
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 163
Mr. Merriman's Saturn Signal
Birch,
I, too, have been studying my cat – Casper the Muggle. She’s the only thing that has kept me in the black this year – and, actually YOY (yea…).
Today the Muggle is on top of her cat scratchy thingy – not in the little house! She is ready to pounce!! To pounce she must jump ever higher!!!
And, I must discount the “third of the five passages of the Saturn-Uranus opposition” signal from Mr. Merriman because my San Diego Chargers Shawn Merriman was just arrested for choking his wonderful girlfriend – Ms. Tila Tequila. That confluence of Elliot waves leaves Mr. Merriman’s “third of the five passages of the Saturn-Uranus opposition” signal in a conflicted state – at least short term. Meaning, we could be in another bull market rally in a secular bear market.
We are in for a massive bull move.
fedgolfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 26
Re: Birchtree's account talk
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...y,dia,qqqq&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
looks like the bull move supported on the lower trendline.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Charles Nenner says we are safe for another three weeks at least - the market will top in October. Well heck, that's good enough for me - bought today: FIG, PCX, HUN, AEO, ANN, UFS, VCI, UDR. Still working down my past buy list - I've now made 424 purchases since 6/26. You are what you buy in a bull market. The VIX has now gone below 25 into the 24 range. I'd like to come back later and pick up a few more sleepy wall flowers. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The Crumbliest Flakiest Stocks Bull Market Never Tasted Before. Being stubborn in the face of the trend is the sure fire way towards financial oblivion."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13288.html
- Reaction score
- 1,585
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm not sure if that was sarcasm, but this guy lost credibility with me last spring when he said on CNBC that his projections are almost "never wrong". He then made a prediction that did not play out, but afterward he said he was right.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Tom,
I was being facetious - but any reason is a good reason to buy early in a bull market. This market recovery has been the strongest of the last 45 years, gaining 44% in 100 trading days from 3/9 to 7/29. Even the move off the August 1982 botom only went up 38% in the first 100 trading days. Then that particular bull ran for 424 days before a 10% dip. So I'm a buyer every day that I can living dangerously.
mayday
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm a bull too Birch
I am going to start withdrawing from TSP soon, and I'll have that extra money to pick and choose what stocks will return the best dividends.
I have a multimillionaire uncle that will give me a few pointers.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
As young as you are I would not take any money out of your TSP account. You won't find a more cost efficient plan to generate tax deferred income. If you are determined to take withdrawals perhaps directly into a Roth IRA will be sufficient to help further your investment desires. You can do just about anything inside of a Roth IRA without paper work of reporting.Similar threads
