Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Merrill strategists went further, constructing an equally-weighted of all markets that have crashed more than 45% since 1970 plus the U.S. stock market crash in 1930 and then averaged the recoveries from these crashes. They found that strong 'relief rallies' are common and that, should this pattern hold for the S&P 500, then it should experience a further 40% appreciation by the end of 2009. That would have the S&P 500 topping out at somewhere around 1400-1500."

http://safehaven.com/article-14362.htm

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Boghie,

I'm very content with your current position - just think about how much capital preservation you saved today. Why do you want to make this contest more difficult than it has to be - that's a pun. You're on my list from a distance but if you go back to full risk I won't have a chance to catch you. Look at the folks on the tracker in front of you that have gone to the lily pad - certainly you don't want to gain on them. Rather just let them slide by you on their way down.

Slow boiled Frogs, sitting purty on their Lilly Pads...
Smack, crack, break their little bones.
Quick turn and I get chomped
By the fastest of Ents
BirchTree, ahem



Actually, BirchTree, you got my mouth watering for nuthin...
The folks on top of me are the Nazgûl Nine following the I of Sauron...
And the holder of the One Ring is a tractor whose very gaze pulls them all...

Scary music. Big black horses. Massive swords.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't think the rally has come to an end - rather we are pausing again for a breath. In 2003 the market rally did not pull back more than 6% during any consolidation. And there were a number of them occurring on a regular basis.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Me neither. My exit strategy is still in place because I think this is just a normal correction, not the end. The tree is got shook hard today and that should start to get folks back on board those 3x Bear funds. I'm also planning on a few alleged support lines being breached intraday in the next few days by the HFT guys because they really don't care. If they can produce big volume at key points it's pennies falling from the sky for them.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Given the background of the 'screaming buy' MACD on the monthly Dow chart, those shorting into this market need to be very meticulous about your outlay of capital. Take a look at the MACD indicator by itself on the Dow monthly chart, which is endorsed here."

http://www.wikigold.com/commentary/?p=4520

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I wonder what the Ichi Moku is telling us? I tried looking at it but felt like I was in an art gallery trying to capture the meaning of life from a renaissance era canvas. I just wasn't feeling it.

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Talk about the dark side of symmetry!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKzgH4hvhh.g

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yesterday both tataberto and ContrarianJeff managed to do what I'd like to do - getting above the buy and hold I funders by sitting on the lily pad during a consolidation. That is still my plan but on a different time frame. Good to see the strategy in action - but I doubt that they'll hold their positions. I wish MrBoom would do a post so I can find his account talk - he's on the move.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I wonder what the Ichi Moku is telling us? I tried looking at it but felt like I was in an art gallery trying to capture the meaning of life from a renaissance era canvas. I just wasn't feeling it.

Here's what ICHI is telling me.

View attachment 6751

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For the first three trading days this week my oceanic account is $98K light - this reminds me of week #10 off the March lows when the account was $112K light. So there is nothing new here. Just the price for staying long and enjoying the new bull market. We are still in the early stages of a liquidity driven bull market that will take stock prices substantially higher. Cash is 34% to stock market total capitalization - when the bull began in 2002 it was at 29%.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
The Neurologist sent me for a sleep study thinking the general symptoms I described are not 'Depression' but seconday to Sleep Apnea.

The results showed 17.8 Disruptive Episodes per hour.

Sleep was 188 minutes - which I find very strange because I slept a good 7 hours.

Moderate Sleep Apnea with Moderate desaturation.

Recommendation: Increase my Airflow to 9

I haven't been using my machine (Airflow of 5) because I never noticed any difference in the quality of my sleep. Now I can't wait to get it on 9 and start using it every night.

So would you please elaborate on the desaturation and explain how correcting this may bring the Disruptive Episodes down to 0. On the weekends when I get some extra sleep 'I'm like a new person'

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

A CPAP level of 9 cm should be very comfortable whether you are using nasal or mask. The pressure will keep your airway open and prevent the hypoxic episodes. These hypoxic episodes over time will increase chances for pulmonary hypertension that can eventually lead to heart failure. If your hematocrit is elevated that could be a diagnostic signal. One way to reverse any cumulative pulmonary hypertension that has already developed is to use supplemental oxygen with your CPAP. It will take more than twelve months for the reversal to begin. You can purchase an oxygen concentrator at a reasonable cost of around $900 and they are really quiet and efficient. Most people don't realize they are having these obstructive episodes when sleeping - JTH has a similar diagnosis. Your O2 level can drop all the way down to 60 and still maintain a 90% saturation and after that the saturations fall rapidly. A couple liters of oxygen used while sleeping will further protect you while sleeping and help reverse any pulmonary hypertension. By the way, if your nose is blue that's another sign of an elevated hematocrit. JTH had minimal desaturation so he was refused an oxygen concentrator - if that happens to you I'd fight to get one - it won't do any harm but might prevent any further damage.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A million thanks to you my friend.

Much appreciated.

Will Copy - Paste - Print

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Corpulmonale is the medical term. What happens is that over time the pulmonary vasculature thickens causing an increase to blood flow resistance and creating extra work on the right ventricle of the heart. The good news is that over time it is reversable with supplemental oxygen. Preventing the sleep apnea alone may begin the reversal process but it will take a very long time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The stock market can ignore fundamental head winds for a very long time. Fundamentals are long-term drivers of the financial markets. They have no short to medium term predictive value. The very strong momentum of the current stock market rally gives you a clear hint that this rally has the power to ignore a lot of bad news for some time to come."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13181.html

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

What you are saying is that the Market is the Market Mover...

A weird concept. Maybe it will make its own luck…

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market is an omnipotent discounting mechanism for the future and can operate as far out as 12 months - where even I have no vision. So I take it all on faith that we are continuing the 1982 mega trend secular bull market. In a secular bull market trend following approaches work. In a mere cyclical bull market, in contrast, they do not. So I'm bullish for the next five years and will undoubtedly end up buying myself into happiness. This week will be a down week for my oceanic account - but it wasn't that long ago when I experienced four down weeks in a row and then gained all the devaluations back in one week. So I will let Ferdinand blaze the trail and I will eventually clear my buy list in the not to distant future. Ah, this is fun.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The market is an omnipotent discounting mechanism for the future and can operate as far out as 12 months - where even I have no vision. So I take it all on faith that we are continuing the 1982 mega trend secular bull market. In a secular bull market trend following approaches work. In a mere cyclical bull market, in contrast, they do not. So I'm bullish for the next five years and will undoubtedly end up buying myself into happiness. This week will be a down week for my oceanic account - but it wasn't that long ago when I experienced four down weeks in a row and then gained all the devaluations back in one week. So I will let Ferdinand blaze the trail and I will eventually clear my buy list in the not to distant future. Ah, this is fun.

Im am absolutely sure you have been doing this all along. Thought you needed a little attention though.

The quote is actually, "In a secular bull market, Davis suggested to his institutional clients, trend following approaches work. In a mere cyclical bull market, in contrast, they do not.

Leaving that part out Birch, would blow your scam though. I see the free-pass you have is still valid. Funny how you managed to copy that exactly except for the part that credits it to someone else. Why would you leave that off Birch? Why?......Don't worry, the sheep will follow.......BAA!......BAA!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/by-this-criterion-its-only-a-cyclical-bull-2009-09-01

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Leave him alone Sugar. He's takin some hits lately and he needs to show his knowledge of copy, paste and edit.....er...I mean financial investment matters to the flock.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Sugar thanks for the attention - now maybe more folks will read a nicely bullish article. I'm trying not to be overly tendentious on the bullish side, if you know what I mean.