Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thank you tataberto and Ed the Fed for the opportunity you have given me. I'm glad the SPX held its 200 month line above 1015.58 this week and the 70 week line also held at 1026. I'm bullish for next week and the next two months - no change there and no fear to continue buying the rallies.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Should You be Bold or Cautious Now?"

http://safehaven.com/article-14330.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/08/27/the-five-stages-of-panic-buying/

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In his classic book "The Intelligent Investor," the great money manager Benjamin Grahm wrote that "the investor with a portfolio od sound stocks should expect their prices to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances." If you can't exercise that kind of emotional control, then by Graham's definition you aren't an investor at all. A diversified portfolio of many investments might make you a loser during a year or even a decade, but a concentrated portfolio of a few investments might ruin you forever. One reason I keep a harem of 321 stocks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From the print edition of TWSJ August 29th. Short Selling Rises on NYSE.

"In the exchanges' latest twice-a-month statistics, this time for the period ended Aug, 14, the number os short-selling positions at the NYSE not yet closed out, known as short interest, rose 1.26%. The positions stood at 14,196,401,372 shares. This is the worst first seven months of the year on record for short sellers since I've been tracking it since 1987, said Harry Strunk. According to Mr. Strunk, the short sellers he tracks, as part of the Strunk Short Selling Index, were down 25.1% for Jan.1 to July 31 and for July, were down 9.9%. Short hairs (sellers) are keeping an eye on September and October said Mr. Strunk." There's obviously plenty of rocket fuel to endorse the remaining stampedes to come.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The market may simply need time to unwind some overbought oscillators before breaking out even above the SPX 1060 gap in time. Bottom line is that there is more complacency than before but not at levels that signal an end to possible upside. The VIX in addition continues in its Beaqrish Trend riding down the Declining 20/50 MA's for the past 8-9 months." I'm staying strong and long - sure hope to do more buying this week.

http://safehaven.com/article-14336.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Every time I think I'm going to make some capital appreciation on the week I turn up empty handed - only made $4K last week and now at week 25 I'm ahead by $688K. So this coming week I don't want to make any money - I'll be satisfied to let my dividends do the heavy lifting. But with 14 billion short hair shares still holding on, who knows what might happen. A little more fear and they will move and cover. I would guess that few investors thought that March 2009, another time of great fear, was a good time to invest. I'm sure glad I was in front of that train. It is good to learn the lesson of fear and exuberance, and use reason to resist their pull. The future is never predictable but I'm in to win.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The monthly SPX shows a perfect V shaped recovery right up and through the first fibonacci at 1015.28 for 38.2%. The 50% is at 1123.89 and the 61.8% is at 1232.51. The last time the MACD actually crossed over the rally continued for years. Seems quite bullish. There is little resistance (selling ready to happen) for the S&P all the way into the 1200s. The current surge could easily keep going another 20%."

http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/2009/08/looking-at-sp-500-charts.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Because I have a tendency to be sagacious I recognize that following big runs in the summertime, the stock market does not, on average turn negative in the fall. Smokin Joe Granville was on today saying we are going essentially straight up for the next two years. GS closed on the positive today - no correction yet.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Because I have a tendency to be sagacious...

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[Uptrend]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch: There are divergences all over the place. The July-August summer fun short squeeze is over. Take your profits and run for cover. No amount of positive talking will change the course of the approaching hurricane.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I bet ameoba told you to say that. I'm waiting on the VIX to be my signal.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have eleven dividends paying today to be reinvested - that's the small blessing of a softer market. Let'em sell into this decline - I'm fine with it. They'll just have to buy everything back on another day.

 

[sdouglas3]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch: There are divergences all over the place. The July-August summer fun short squeeze is over. Take your profits and run for cover. No amount of positive talking will change the course of the approaching hurricane.

I went to the G-Fund today. I thought that the big boys would push the markets up through the resistence area and it is just not happening. Taking a small loss should the big boys want to take the markets lower. In which case I will buy back later.

Steve

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The recent drop to down 178 happened awfully quick - makes me think it was programmed selling. Let'em cut and run. Early in the day yet - so we'll see if the dip buyers are around to pull the market back up like yesterday. No fear here.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The recent drop to down 178 happened awfully quick - makes me think it was programmed selling. Let'em cut and run. Early in the day yet - so we'll see if the dip buyers are around to pull the market back up like yesterday. No fear here.

Shaking the dead stuff out of the trees and getting ready for the big ride up

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX has now gone back up to 28.30 - this gives me comfort to some extent. I plan to move my tugboat when the 20 level is penetrated - but I'd prefer to hold as long as possible. My time frame remains December. In a bull market these consolidations are always the same - sharp, short, sweet, sordid and always offer some astute investors a great opportunity. Hit me with your best shot. I wonder how many dividends I have coming in tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I actually gave up less today with this 186 down move than I did on the last 186 move two weeks ago - that to me is a positive divergence. It won't mean anything however if we tank again tomorrow - but I think this set back may now be over. There is plenty of cash out there that will now want to exercise this opportunity to buy in cheaper - that's what everyone has been waiting for - so we'll see if they were serious. This consolidation could end up a short memory in the next three days. Being strong and staying long - but it does feel good reinvesting my dividends at lower prices. I bought my last C fund at $12.11 and haven't bought the $12 range for several years, so that is a small blessing.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Might be just the time to move my 29% G/F into C/S/I.

A little dump may go a long way

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Boghie,

I'm very content with your current position - just think about how much capital preservation you saved today. Why do you want to make this contest more difficult than it has to be - that's a pun. You're on my list from a distance but if you go back to full risk I won't have a chance to catch you. Look at the folks on the tracker in front of you that have gone to the lily pad - certainly you don't want to gain on them. Rather just let them slide by you on their way down.