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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Got the 175 point tag so in we went - I say we because Mindylou is helping make the choices - she is such a great adviser. Bought: CTX, HEI, GMT, GBX, FFG, POL, APU, PXD, TRN, CBI. Now if we nail the 200 point level the market will push me for more - and yes there are many more clamoring for attention. That is now 310 purchases since 6/26. And the money pit is getting deeper.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The very high reading of the ITBM, along with the recent price breakout, presents strong evidence that an initial impulse capable of launching another major up leg has taken place. And the similarity between the present and 2002-2003 bottom leads me to believe that it is more likely that we are at the beginning of a bull market rather than at the end of one".
http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0807.html
Now Ferdinand, if the link below doesn't keep our friends on the lily pad I don't know what will.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12532.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I peeled a little off my I fund for Monday - the dollar may have bottomed for now and is due for a temporary rebound. Right now 90% of S&P 500 companies are above their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Ned Davis will be looking to start exiting the market at the 1200 level. With the strong bounce in the small caps today I'm sure I made my goal of another $100K week - but it may just be fantasy until I get my update tomorrow.
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I noted your move from I to S.
Is it normal in a bull market for the indexes to be above their 50 and 200 day moving averages - or, is this the signal of a market top? Is a simple moving average still a marker when it factors in a panic crash.
My eye (my stongest technical analysis tool - yuk, yuk) told me that a standard bear market correction would have dumped us at 1100 on the S&P. Also, my uneducated guess is that our 'F Fund' will stop declining when the smart money starts projecting a correction. Are these markers kindof equivalent to the moving averages mentioned?
So, I think I will ride the wave. I do live in California:nuts:Re: Birchtree's account talk
answers:
1. yes. that would be normal, if in a bull market.
2. yes. it could also signal a market top, but that would occur at a lower ^vix than 20.
3. no. your eye is not equivalent to a dma.
4. no. there is no smart money. everyone is being an idiot and tossing money into a market whose underlying productivity is being temporarily driven by government stimuli. so that is what I am doing also. Whatever makes a return. Doesn't pay to be smart. At least right now.
Hope this helps.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well just when I thought I had the $100K in the bag the sting of a rude reality slaps me silly - I face another disappointment. I only made $95K in my oceanic last week. But because I am an eternal optimist I know I'll be given another opportunity to achieve a little success in this market environment. There is always another day, right Tara. Mindylou and I will build up another buy list and will plan to execute as many buy orders as popssible if the market continues the rally. The objective is to buy early and buy often. Yes, we are in the early stages of panic buying and because it will only get more heated in the next few weeks and months ahead I must do my patriotic duty and provide support. When you play the margin game there simply is no end to the potential during a bull market, especially if that bull is inside a mega trend secular bull market. Week #22 puts me up $669K from the March low - how long must I wait to hit the $1M mark? I could be there by the end of August if the buying stampede arrives with a hoofhearted vengence.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Prepare yourself. We are about to enter one of the most potentially explosive geocosmic time bands of the year....the possibility of very large price swings is great."
http://www.mmacycles.com
A tsunami of liquidity is entering the market and that will send this thing parabolic.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Comparing the 1973-74 bear recovery with 2008-09. A 73.46% gain projects 1156.60 on the SPX." http://www.ritholtz.com under older entries
A good article on http://news.briefing.com - Road Ahead Won't Be As Easy - but I'm not paying attention to it.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've been waiting more than patiently for some really big up days in the 300 point range and I still think they are coming when the panic buying catapults the Dow higher. There is so much fear out there right now - fear of a humongus correction and fear of missing the next rocket ride. The sidelined liquidity will propel this market up almost as fast as it came down. There is close to $16 trillion dollars to blow and almost 14 billion short hairs to cover. Parabolic is the correct term - let Buckwheat ride. Now I have to go enjoy my WSJ and then punish myself for not making $100K last week by mowing my lawn. It's all in the sacrifice my friends.
alevin
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/australian-financial-review/
Read Ritholz a little further, Birchie. Good thing you're going to start trading pretty soon. Continued B&H could undo much of your sacrificial giving up til now and derail your real estate timelines.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hey B,
You're only 500 posts away from being the first non-honorary member of the TSP Talk Hall of Fame. Nnutt is actually in already, but his title remains "Moderator". Yours will be "Hall of Fame" as soon as you reach 10,000.
Show-me and I are next in line but still have about 2500 posts to go, but again, we have our member titles already set. Next in line is 350Z and he needs 4700 more posts, so it will be lonely at the top for some time to come.
I know it will be tough to contain yourself, but when it happens, probably in the next few months, I will make an announcement of some sort. That's quite an accomplishment. I don't always agree with what you say, but I appreciate all (OK, most) of your input. Thanks!
List of Titles
Boghie
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Uuuummmm, BirchTree...
500 posts...
A couple of months to yak it up 500 times. I am personally counting the days - maybe the hours
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From the print addition of TWSJ by Riva Froymovich on 8/7/09
"For the first time since the economic crisis gripped financial markets, when investors rushed into the safety of the U.S. currency and bonds in times of fear, the dollar actually benifited from good U.S. news. The dollar rallied against the euro and Japanese yen Friday on a stronger than expected U.S. employment report, which came to change the way currency markets have been trading for at least the past year. The nonfarm payrolls report may be so strong that it prompts players to rethink assumptions about the pace of the recovery, the timing of the Federal Reserve's normalization of interest rates and ultimately the relationship between the stock market and the dollar.
Essentially, on Friday, investors traded the dollar on interest rate expectations, which hasn't happened since the world's major central banks began their aggressive easing campaigns. This occurred in conjunction with a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and as fed funds futures began pricing in an interest-rate increase by January. The tight inverse correlation between the dollar and equities is potentially easing, and we are not seeing wholesale dollar selling. If so, relative economic performance will become increasingly important, and on that basis,, we still expect the dollar can outperform the euro and the yen in the months and quarters ahead." One of the reasons I reduced my I fund position.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I backed off some, trying to let them catch up, but it hasn't happened. Too BAD my Daily Oil Slick Stuff Home Page updates don't count!!! It's lonely at the TOP, comon Guys!! :laugh:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Very quietly, and not talked about by basically anyone, we are up against the 70 week moving average at 1036 on the SPX. We still have a ways to go to get there. Why am I focusing on this? because historically, the 70 week moving average, when in a true bear market, has stopped all rallies dead in their tracks. It has caused one bull run after another to top out and collapse back down. If we do clear with force SPX 1036 and Nas 2015, we are in a confirmed bull market. No longer can we say this is possibly only a bull market rally within a deeper secular bear market. Some exposure is necessary at all times when on a buy signal. Keep with the trend." And for gosh sakes remember to buy early and buy often.
http://safehaven.com/article-14129.htmSimilar threads
