Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well the VIX finally did close down 0.4 on the close to 23.43. It looks like the oceanic took in $48K today - sure could use another good day tomorrow. It's no longer too much to ask for in the early stages of a bull market. At one time there was over 16 billion shares out short which would take several months to clean house - it's probably hedge funds doing the buying recently.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

very very good day today

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I sure could use a drive by from some of my favorite gloom and doomers to bring me back to reality - it's time to buy more bank stocks especially the ones I don't like. If it stinks I want to own it. The consensus of investing opinion seems to be that sharp V shape reversals are rarely sustainable - wrong this time around. If you believe in the principle of symmetry this market may not pause long enough to allow a more prudent entry point. If there is weakness it will undoubtedly be on an intraday basis rather than closing basis.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I sure could use a drive by from some of my favorite gloom and doomers to bring me back to reality - it's time to buy more bank stocks especially the ones I don't like. If it stinks I want to own it. The consensus of investing opinion seems to be that sharp V shape reversals are rarely sustainable - wrong this time around. If you believe in the principle of symmetry this market may not pause long enough to allow a more prudent entry point. If there is weakness it will undoubtedly be on an intraday basis rather than closing basis.

Better lock in your gains while you can. There will be a better entry point on a closing basis. :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I accept the criticism that I'm an accumulator of wall flowers. I buy on dips and I buy on up moves. There is plenty of opportunity while the market is open and I swing both ways. So if we get a nice correction I'll be there to get my share of better pricing - but if we don't pause and continue to mirror the fall I'll be a strong buyer. The more I buy the more I can make. I only need $20K to make my second week of $100K gains. This is great fun after all the pain that was dished out last year and I'm a rider on the storm all the way - kinda like being Airborne.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I accept the criticism that I'm an accumulator of wall flowers.

Birch...not trying to be critical. I just know that when a roller coster gets to the top it generally goes down faster than the climb up.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

kinda like being Airborne.

AIRBORNE ALL THE WAY!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like we may drop some on the open - but that's what happens in a bull market. On the other hand most foreigners buy during the first hour so anything could happen. In the 3,000 point 2003 bull run there were no corrections greater than 3-4% and didn't last very long. In the spring of 1983 the Dow had a 13 day straight run in that bull market. I'm not backing off my buying spree. A 1000 SPX is right around the corner if not tomorrow.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm ready to see that contrarian in you Birch. Dow Theory buy signal confirmed at the close yesterday.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I mentioned on several occasions to the point of being tendentious that the big surprise for the majority would be for a day to day market advance in the face of bad news. Yes my friends I'd call this a meltup. Waiting on the rally with patience so I can do a little shopping.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bullitt,

I'm waiting on the VIX to trip wire at 20. Otherwise I'm not going to cut and run until I see the whites of their eyes. I'd actually like to see the Transports break 3717 for a Dow Theory confirmation. The longer the VIX takes to come down the better I like it. I think I'll go spend a few dollars.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've decided to sit on my hands for today. The wall flowers will still be hanging around next week. I need to make $20K today for my second week of $100K and so far I'm only up $8K- now if we get a good close after 1530 I'll have a chance.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've decided to sit on my hands for today

Wow Birch - what an image

Make sure the palms are up with toliet paper in hand :nuts:

Well I've got about 5 axes to grind down before I head home.


Have a good weekend my friend and Birch don't worry about what's going to happen next week ~~~ or next month~~~ or next year

Sometimes the easiest thing to do is simply Buy and Hold

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've decided to sit on my hands for today. The wall flowers will still be hanging around next week. I need to make $20K today for my second week of $100K and so far I'm only up $8K- now if we get a good close after 1530 I'll have a chance.

Birch,

Wall flowers started jumping in this afternoon. Think transportations will break your target point next week?

Hoping to see a 20% run out of this (from July's low) before it slows!

Have a great weekend!

-mcq

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As sad as it may sound I only made $95K on the week - shucks. I'm now at $552K for week #20 off the March 9th low. The question is how long will it take me to get to $1M - I predict it will be before week #40 rolls around. If we keep rallying I'll be there a lot quicker than that - using leverage of a margin account now. I really think this bull leg continues now that the hedge fund money is starting to buy. There is an avalanche of cash set to slide on into the pool. When euphoria and hope sweep the investment community, everyone jumps on the rocket and the sky is the limit - SPX 1300 is on the horizon. Because this market didn't pause much on the way down, why should one expect it to pause on the way up. So far the market recovery has mirrored the fall. This is definitely a meltup my friends. And if you are luxuriating on the lily pad you have my sympathies.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This is very impressive action and consistent with our view that we are now in the early stages of a cyclical bull market which could continue for 2-3 years. Our view remains that emerging Asia and commodities remain in a secular bull market which will probably end in a gigantic bubble in the future. Capital allocated now should see above growth over the next business cycle."

http://safehaven.com/article-13998.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand says we have more gaps to fill on the upside and Mindylou tells me not to be a whimp and do my buying on Monday no matter the environment. We took in $214K in the last two weeks and I'm going out for breakfast tonight and Mindylou will ride along. Many investors are deluding themselves into thinking this was a mere sucker's rally in an ongoing bear market but they will be surprised when they learn, belatedly, that the March-April rally leg was only the first portion of a continued cyclical recovery.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"After a few months of consolidation, the bulls seized control of the market and drove prices up through some major resistance levels. At this time the market is modestly overbought short to medium term. I do not expect this to be a problem for the rally, which I believe will continue for a period of weeks."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0724.html

Come to think of it, I believe I was at a -37% at the beginning of March on the tracker - my how times can change. That's what a good pair of sticky pants will do for ya.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"All the major market indices that we track broke out in a big way this week through our important Neckline Pivots which now open the door for a move up to our 38 and 50% Retracement Levels. In addition, we have a tremendous amount of sideline cash that will feel pressure to participate as the market heads higher further putting a squeeze on the bears."

http://safehaven.com/article-14008.htm

My desire and anguish is that I hope the current lily padders are prescient enough to ignore any bullish commentary, especially mine, and will maintain their current positions. Don't let the sweet smell of superlative manure overcome your sensibilities. Stay with safety as long as you can - you know the economy is still a dangerous place to wade into and that includes the markets. You all know this happy phase will end. Staying with safety is the best policy.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm waiting on Tim Wood to publish his next article and tell us crazy oinks that we are still in a bear market suckers rally and we have been warned. I hope it's this weekend now that there have been several writers declaring the Dow Theory buy signal. Gosh, Monday could be downright explosive. Probably the best thing I can do now is to chase this bull market and stay on the tracks for a back test of 956. I think I should take the initiative now and simply run in front of the train. Snort.