Birchtree's Account Talk

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

i hope today ends up a double SNORT

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm running the risk of perhaps buying on an intermediate term top but I don't really care because I invest for the longer term. So far today I bought shares in: AF, ARJ, ASH, BAC, RES, WGO, WOR,ZEP, EQY, CUZ. Do you know anyone else that would by a recreational vehicle stock - I actually own two. It's a great way to rent and travel.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think if I can come close to a 150 point Dow gain this afternoon I will drop another $30K down the rabbit hole and purchase another 10 stocks. All I'm doing is dollar cost averaging my current positions.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
My dear brother - I'm thrown into a new facility once a week in the attempts to provide ongoing care for a psychiatrist who quit and won't be back. So it's been a little hectic working with a whole new group in a 'strange environmet' - but it's cool and there's no doubt I'll make it work.

Anyway - don't have much time but did want you to note how the Markets are NOT taking this unstoppable crash; this super mega correction that so many are claiming is here ....

Every day the Markets start off like this and continue to reveal ongoing strength I'm always happy for you - it always makes my day thinkn' how you must feel.

So take care - my Buy and Holder rarity - and crack open a nice cool one cause 'this Bud's for you'

music fades and cut.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently it would appear that every one of my last 55 stock purchases because of today will rack a loss - isn't that the way it usiually is. Still, I'm encouraged to come into the market later to scoop up a few more bargains and it's value I'm searching for to build my continuing base. So bring'em down and give'em away to the brave. Snort.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think the overwhelming difference between you and the rest of us IS we are caught up in THE MOMENT and that pretty much holds the bulk of our attention and subsequently directs our actions.

You have the ability to get caught in 'the Moment' but have this long running game plan that lets you pretty much ignore the stress, strain, fear, and uncertainties that largely keep everyone else captive.

Still just to be difficult - there is always the chance that we can spare the losses and reap the gains. On the surface it looks like jumping in and out has its advantages.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Been doing my part as a dip buyer this afternoon. Today I bought: AOS, AXS, BLT, CBI, CLC, CNH, CSL, CR, CMO, FGP. Earnings will help out next week. Another pause that refreshes. Everyone thinks the economy is going into the dumps - how emotional they always get.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Investment Lessons From The Recent Past. The consensus, as expressed by the current overall direction of the stock and bond markets and within the media, is quite often wrong. One should not generalize very much at all from monthly economic data releases that can, at best, only reflect short-term trends; while such data maybe important to traders, being swayed by it is likely to be counter-productive for long term investors. Conversely, by gathering enough data to form a long-term picture, you have a considerably better chance of doing well."

http://safehaven.com/article-13795.htm

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Birchtree
I believe this Thursday is non-farm payrolls again - look for -235,000 as a pleasant surprise. This recession has been an anomaly because productivity actually rose - that's not new to some of us. It does imply that companies cut costs dramatically, and if demand picks up it would suggest corporate profits could explode. Maybe that's what the rally has been all about. It's time to load up the truck May I please have another 100 point rally tomorrow - I'm ready to chase the momentum.

No, you may not (have a 100 pt rally).

Wanna bet on those non-farms? I say last month revised downwards (to minus 360), and this month minus 385.

"if" demand picks up? who has money after the various stimuli packages are spent out? that's a big "if".

The rally is a bear market anomaly based on lower-than-warranted fear, not economic demand, not employment, not anything "real". This is alot of betting on positives in the next 6-9 months.

We shall see."

And we did - re: the jobs number; holy moly - this may be a time to load up on gold if that's what the stimulus package is (not) doing.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've made 65 individual stock purchases this week, why? In order to succeed in investing, you need to understand your own risk tolerance, have a long-term plan, and have the right expectations for your investment strategies, and yes owning the holy grail also helps. This will not only ensure that you will not sell your stocks at the worst possible time, but that you will not be taken out by large losses. More importantly, assuming you have a proper asset allocation to begin with, you will be able to utilize any decline as an opportunity to put more of your investments into equities to take advantage of the great companies that are selling at large discounts to their historical valuations. I expect the bull market to resume next week and I'll be chasing momentum. This week I poured $116K down the well. And I'm reminded big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. History has shown that you are most likely to earn the highest returns on the money you invest after the market has taken a severe beating. The reason is that equities have their best long term potential when investors are most fearful of buying them. And if you don't know already I'm a renegade contrarian. And there's no doubt that after another day like today most investors want as little to do with stocks as possible. I'm going to spend the summer buying on margin and only Ferdinand has any idea how much I'm going to drop down the well. Still counting on the cycles to blaze the trail.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would appear the SPX is still above the 200 day - 896.42/887.93. And the golden cross remains intact. We did not break the neckline on the head and shoulders pattern. I'm a buyer again next week regardless of the situations I encounter. Three weeks sideways is an opportunity to acquire lower pricing.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"With the general stock market rally stalling out and the economic news getting worse by the day, many investors are left wondering about the future. Despite the difficult economic times, fundamentals of the energy sector have improved over the last six months and will continue to do so. Investors who can find fundamentally solid companies that are growing reserves per share and production per share will be well rewarded once the general market recognizes the values available in the energy sector today."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2009/0702.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Make no mistake, it was the foreclosure avalanche triggered by the minority, at risk subprime mortgage resets which caused the credit crisis. The ripple effect has put 14 million good people out of work and created more home defaults. My fear is what is going to happen when this at risk group is forced to return to subsidized public housing. Alt-A and option arms may face the next crisis next year. BHO programs will not be able to save his constitutency unless he increases the welfare check payout and I don't think the country will stand for that. We could experience some violence and I believe the silent majority is dutifully prepared to protect what they own. Black Panthers have died in the past and more Black Panthers may die in the future. I blame it on the Democrats for reducing standards everywhere one looks from education to employment. You simply have to earn your way in this country by being productive.

 

[ezmoney]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm going to start practicing socialism. "I want, I expect, no I demand my entitlements. How's that for a start. Take to to streets and demand those in D.C. be arrested and jailed; them and their no good cronies. I'm tired of paying for that DAMNED TEA!

 

[Buffalo_Nickle]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hmmm!! I dont know what your (color; race; etc ; ) is but I would think your life expectantcy would be way down there if your didnt qualify to demand so much . Happy 4th!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The pertinent question is why am I being an aggressive buyer in all this uncertainity? It is because I believe the market is at the doorstep and poised for a multiyear run and I must own the lonely wall flowers. Today I bought: AKS, ASH, ATN, BBG, BDK, BTU, CBI, CMC, CNX, DRC, STO, BAC, OMN, PXD.

Most people think we may be in a cyclical bull market in a secular bear market. That would potentially give this bull market a life of 1 1/2 years. A cyclical bull inside a secular bull will provide a life span of 3 to 7 years.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The pertinent question is why am I being an aggressive buyer in all this uncertainity? It is because I believe the market is at the doorstep and poised for a multiyear run and I must own the lonely wall flowers. Today I bought: AKS, ASH, ATN, BBG, BDK, BTU, CBI, CMC, CNX, DRC, STO, BAC, OMN, PXD.

Birch, did you notice ATN suspended their dividend while merger is in progress? I bought in soon enough I should have harvested the most recent dividend, but it didn't happen. Primary bets are the dividends will not be restored post-merger. Are you betting the other way?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe that ATN will reestablish their dividend which was around $2.44 for a 13% yield. I like them primarily because of their Marcellus Shale natural gas play in the Appalachian Basin. I bought a good parcel of energy today. Tomorrow I'll chase some industrial machinery stocks. It's all good at these levels and prices.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe that most H&S patterns turn out to be false alarms. You should always dollar cost average your money into the market. If I had completed all my transactions on June 26th I would have paid way too much for some positions. So using DCA into the market you are making regular investments that will allow you to average out the ups and downs of the market. I've now made 79 purchases since 6/26 with many more to complete.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

And another correction will bite the dust - actually I'm waiting to see if any selling developes once we pass 880 support - or perhaps we had it today. At any rate this is a golden opportunity to be an accumulater of equities because we are in a cyclical bull market inside a secular bull. I won't listen to the noise about a bear rally inside a secular bear. Most market participants hear nothing but the mainstream news. They have fears so let them run and hide. I'm a buyer until it starts to feel good. So bring me your tortured prices and I will take them to my portfolio where they will be welcomed.