Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
For the record I believe we entered a 'BULL MARKET' last month.

Only because the beginning 6 weeks went so fast - and so far - do I cling to the hope of a sizeable correction and the chance to get in at a better entry point next month.

'Fortitude and Patience' are your saving grace - and that most defines your character. Only because you've been overly 'bullish' over the past few years are many having such a hard time believing what you're saying now.

On the whole I am convinced the best way to manage substantial investments that have accumulated over the years is by periodic adjustments. The TSP is the only investment I've made such frequent adjustments in and I think it's part of the atmosphere.

Since entering this community in 10/07 we have all been forced to play VOLITILITY - and thus the ones who made the most frequent adjustments appeared to be 'the Smartest' - yet many others making frequent adjustments fell towards the bottom - and the ones that simply held their positions landed somewhere in between.

We have finally reached a point where LONG TERM will far outweigh VOLITILITY and thus to the largest degree I am totally out of the game. My next move in will be my final one and future adjustments will only involve C,S, or I.

Thank you for your outstanding example.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You are most welcome - I expect some buyers will show up later today and snap this correction in its tracks. As Ken Fisher says: "Stocks are cheaper compared to long-term interest rates than they have been in anyone's life." It's normal to have an intraday correction that allows lower pricing. But then again Venus did turn direct on April 17, so we could remain weak for a few days.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Regarding the VIX - "An interesting point to note is that the 50 DMA is getting close to crossing the 200 DMA, which bodes well for the markets in the bigger picture." Some nice graphs.

http://safehaven.com/article-13128.htm

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I disagree on both points:

a) A declining ^VIX <30 and the 20 less than the 50 or 200 dma in a bear market is a sell; A peaking ^VIX >50 is a buy.

b) late day rally (not that I care about this sort of fluctuation) - nope.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I expect some buyers will show up later today and snap this correction in its tracks. As Ken Fisher says: "Stocks are cheaper compared to long-term interest rates than they have been in anyone's life." It's normal to have an intraday correction that allows lower pricing. But then again Venus did turn direct on April 17, so we could remain weak for a few days.

I personally hope that it continues to go down this afternoon and then rebounds strongly the rest of the week because I jumped 100% in the S-fund today COB. It would be great if it went down 8 % like it did on 12/01/08. I choose the S-fund because it's this month-to-date's best performing fund (LMBFM thinking) and it's down 1% lower than the C-fund today.

This move will probably give me a loss, I'm pretty close to the bottom of the autotracker list (193 out 195). Although I actually have a 1% better return than shown on the autotracker because I failed to enter 2 IFTs before the 1210 deadline.

Good luck to everyone.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

amoeba,

Were you doing any buying when the VIX was at 90? I was in the process of loading up the truck. The SPX moves in reverse to the VIX on most occasions.

McDuck,

I think you have made a propitious move into the S fund. I've been moving up from behind myself and the road ahead is clearing.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch:

As the tracker shows, I moved my money around. By contrast, your record shows you were in 100% in equities; in order for you to "buy"; you need to have some money in G-fund - and you haven't.

If you want to claim gains; go prove them by moving some money around and posting your IFT's. Until then, your rank and returns proves your strategy (and mine).

So "loading up your truck" means what? I surmise you mean to say that you have all sorts of other investments which, unlike your negatory TSP strategy - are reaping all sorts of return. Doubt it.

By the way......where is that end of day rally? I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

wow flaming a thread isn't cool, especially when its his own thread.

hrm....

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

birch's got other investment acc's besides his tsp and roth. this market isnt looking good at all.. I'm currently 15%CSI and 85%G. I should have moved all my money to G last friday.. I got no more ift's and I can only move to G . I'm thinking if this downward trend continues to the closing of the market, I'll just move all to G tomorrow.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch:

Doubt it.

By the way......where is that end of day rally? I'm not holding my breath.

Birch - chill my friend.

I expect a lot of folks caught up in the AT are going to have some pretty strong feelings in the months to come - and a huge bulk of those feelings will undoubtedly be directed at you.

1. Those who missed the bottom are going to resent you for being in and staying in 100% - because they missed out. AND THE LONGER THEY WAIT - AND THE MORE THEY MISS - THE ANGRIER THEY'LL BE.

So the competitive world will make themselves known - and the more competitive they are the angrier they'll be.

2. You totally represent 'THE BULL MARKET' and somehow others unrealistically associate you with the 6 week rally.

So when the Markets take a dive - expect some anger - somehow it's your fault and all the more the anger is fueled by your optimistic comments.

3. It's a huge forum - wide open to millions and millions...

So if you're into Drama - then whatever I guess these things could go on and on in neverending circles.....

or you can just know that somehow - in some manner - some will know you and what you represent and others won't ....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

amoeba my sweet - you must have my thread on ignore or you've been resting in a dark cool place. One more time - I made 432 individual stock purchases last fall during the bottoming process and have dollar cost averaged my tugboat (TSP) all the way down with the C fund. I'm hoping for at least one more purchase of the C fund in the $9 range by the end of the week. If I told you how many C fund shares I own you would get weak in the knees. Just during the last six weeks my oceanic account had rebounded by $353K - the K stands for thousand.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's very probable that today I may have given back that odd $53K - but it'll come back during the rest of the week. As an investor you have to be able to absorb the hits because sometimes they just keep coming. The pricing is now much better for the bulls to romp and I'm getting the itchy trigger finger myself to plow back into some of my financials and banks now that they are finally of their stomachs.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

amoeba my sweet - you must have my thread on ignore or you've been resting in a dark cool place. One more time - I made 432 individual stock purchases last fall during the bottoming process

Yeah, Birch is telling the truth. Last fall, he told us every time he sent his wife to the bank to get $$$ and then he told us how he invested it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

Thanks for the moral support - but as Sugar would say I enjoy the attention. Let's see how long it takes the bull to pull back the 289 down points from today. We may have just experienced our long awaited correction and that may be it for another few weeks while the bull run and buying stampede continues. I'm still trying to get to the surface but the diver above me keeps stepping on my mask - ah it's my wife and I'm actually pushing her toward the surface. My NAUI certification comes in handy.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch:
By contrast, your record shows you were in 100% in equities; in order for you to "buy"; you need to have some money in G-fund - and you haven't.

If you want to claim gains; go prove them by moving some money around and posting your IFT's.

Amoeba,

I use to feel the same way you feel.

But I think that in reality that staying in the C-fund at the noon deadline is exactly the same as being in the G-fund and doing an IFT to the C-fund before the noon deadline. I have done better in my long-term return by thinking this way.

McDuck

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch -

1. Those who missed the bottom are going to resent you for being in and staying in 100% - because they missed out.

I resemble that statement.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"I showed this graph several weeks ago and stated: Within the context of a bear market or down sloping 40 week moving averages, this is an extreme, overbought number that has typically signaled an intermediate term top. The one noteworthy exception was the March, 2003 bottom. The indicator failed as over bought became more overbought and the bull market launched. The signal was a failure as overbought became more overbought, which is the sign of a bull market advance."

http://safehaven.com/article-13138.htm

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

i wonder how many peeps here put in for a buy today before noon

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I resemble that statement.

You went 100% S Fund - COB today

If I had an IFT - I may have gone 40% C; 60% S - today to start with (but probably would have waited another day or so).

If tomorrow went down nicely - then I would move for sure.
But I'm stuck until next month ! So I'm thrilled for anyone who can take advantage of a good thing.

In the next 10 days you may be way ahead of me (but that's OK as we're basically just getting started) and when I make my next move that should be it. Peace

 

[mick504]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I moved from C to G last week. I think it's too early to buy in again even though I still can in April....wait a few more days to see what's happening! Just my opinion.