Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Took a few hits but more gains than losses so I'm at least sleeping at night without ambien. J/K Made a few more bucks on the bulk shippers, egle in particular but this trade is getting crowded so on to other opportunities.

Louise Yamata is calling for the demise of the U.S. financial system but there is always opportunity. SDS has made me alot of money but I'm long more often than not. Playing with the banks seems to be like playing with nitro glycerine so I am very careful in that endeavor. Made a couple of bucks on BAC and C and RIMM (one non-bank) but am sticking with better names i.e. goldman, JPM. APPLE, etc but have protected myself with puts and have sold some calls so overall last month and the beginning of this month about an average of a 9% gain so no complaints but getting some good advice -this ain't all coming from me so the nest egg is growing. 2 accounts -1 trading and 1 long term with alot of protection and I have almost increased by 2/3 from where my dad left it so my trading account is about 10 and change now so all things considered I don't feel too bad.

Had to go in for a cardiac catherization because of chest pains I turn 55 in July 3 so I figured better safe than sorry - they had to go into your femoral artery which is stressful needless to say but all the cardiac arteries are clear so stress seems to be the problem. With everything on my shoulders I wonder why. LOL Hell on 40mg lipitor my cholesterol w was 122. When the doctor told me I thought he said 222 - I almost fell out of my chair but you have all that other crap too worry about like you PSA for urology and the rest of the crap. Way off topic but intelligence considers the whole picture. Without getting in front of possible heath issues the rest is meaningless.

Hope your buy and hold approach as things become dirt cheap make you very weathy along with you dividend collection.

best

cayman (seems like I check in on a regular basis) I hope there is at least some pressure on tsp to change their interfund transfer rules but as goes all gov't agencies it seems like an act of God is required. If Geithner is an example of things to come I will be saying quite a few prayers for us all.

side note:

MITT ROMNEY AS PREZ AND RUDY G. AS V.p WOULD HAVE WORKED FOR ME.
That idiot Cramer told a story where he was interviewed by Romney for a job after he graduated from Harvard ( I want to see that diploma by the way) and Mitt told him try Goldman because he wouldn't cut it at his place. Mitt said he was just trying to be nice.

Now Mitt actually knows the difference between a CDO and an HMO unlike the BAMA and Rudy G cleaned up New York City and kept things together after 9/11.The Bama before now hasn't even run a lemonade stand. His people actually said he had a lot of managerial experience from running his campaign.

Is there anything else that needs to be said????

If you disagree I believe Iran is open for citizenship. I'm sure they will treat you just dandy. LOL
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Please don't tell me we hit THE BOTTOM


But I would like to hear some details on why we are in a RALLY MODE that likely will last at least several weeks and easily give us 20% or greater.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

The reason we are in rally mode is obvious: "Time Has Come Today" by I think the Chandler Brothers perhaps 1968 or so. But seriously we just had an upward revision in the January retail sales which indicates consumer spending has stabilized. We are seeing takeovers accelerate. There's always been a correlation between the size of market recovery and the depth of the downturn during a recession. There's $10 trillion in liquidity available. Most emotional investing panics are unprecedented and rare. Mortgage refinancings are at record highs.Central banks have pumped trillions into the banking system. Yields on cash and cash equivalents is at historical lows. Horrendous investor sentiment - a contrary bullish indicator. Shall I go on? Snort. Alright one more; volatility has peaked - the VIX has topped out and is falling. Birchtree continues to throw his money away at this market. It would also appear that the dollar rally has ended for awhile which is bullish for the markets. Low valuations - various stock markets are trading at very attractive multiples. Any new corporate earnings going forward will be compared to a very difficult year last year. I have another 120 reasons if you wish for more. OK, declining Ted spread - the interbank lending rate has declined, a positive sign. Now we wait on the IPO market to recover and it certainly will. Keep your eye on China. We now have a positive sloping yield curve which will improve bank earnings, plus the banks are seeing improved deposit flows. And yes my friend we did bottom on the SPX at 666.79 and the Dow at 6469.95. The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September 2007, and historically interest rate changes impact the economy with roughly a six to 12 months lag. This increase in money supply is a very positive development for both the economy and market. The market will rally ahead of the economic recovery because the market is omnipotent and can see further into the future than us mere mortals.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Buffalo Nickle,

You are correct - the Chambers Brothers. What a great instrumental section. History shows that markets can turn abruptly and strengthen dramatically once a tipping point is reached. Investors have to be ready when that occurs. Currently the risk of not being in the market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market. I'm in up to my nostrils. This rally has the potential to run until summer when we can anticipate one more retest for another triple bottom similar to 2002-2003.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Birch !

I'm learning - or at least I'm trying to learn and I'm very open to what I can find.

These Markets are flying in the Face of the Worst News .... so I knew something has to be behind it .... but was too drown out with reports.

Much appreciated,
Steady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are on our way to pop that SPX resistance level of 741. After that bring on 759. I only have three dividends to reinvest today so my sacrifice is to let this puppy run and run. Stock markets bottom when almost no one expects it. The VIX should be heading back to 36-37 and then into the 20s. Sustained extreme volatility (VIX at 89) only happens in the bottoming periods.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cycles are never exact but the Kress 6-year cycle is a powerful one and can't be understimated. It would now appear that the newly formed 6-year cycle is gaining strength and becoming dominant. The previous 6-year cycle bottom ended the bear market in October 2002 and the bear market 0f 2008 has also been killed by the 6-year cycle bottom. Even if we did undercut the expected lows by a few months. It surely feels good to have my entire asset base finally working in the right direction. Historically, stocks tend to turn up a little more than halfway through a recession, and have posted 40% returns on average, 12 months after the turn. I fully expect the returns to be greater this time around because we are not dealing with average circumstances. How about another 400 point day today my long engaged friends. Let those resting on the lily pad strain their necks a little looking upwards.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cycles are never exact but the Kress 6-year cycle is a powerful one and can't be understimated. It would now appear that the newly formed 6-year cycle is gaining strength and becoming dominant.

If this is TRUE - then you'd have to call this a BULL MARKET :D

Also TRUE is the fact that it is NOT TOO LATE to get in because what we are seeing now is simply a taste of what we'll experience for years to come.

Not a week or two - or one month - so the longer those in safety hold back the more they're letting huge gains pass them by.

If this is a real BULL MARKET - The biggest gains will be in the initial phase - as others begin to realize THIS IS IT - and all will want to BUY LOW.

So are you saying this is 'A BULL MARKET' ??

or is this just a little blimp on the screen? Seems like a blimp would have long passed by this time ... especially after >7% Gain and the gains just keep coming....
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We'll know if it's a bull market once we reach the 200 day moving average for the Dow around 9887 and can hold it for 30 days. The SPX 200 MVA is around 1062. We will undoubtedly have another retest but will hold a bottoms above bottoms on the technical charts. Now is the time to buy. We can do incredible damage to the bear case and they deserve all the pain - let's see how long they can endure. The SPX high on January 6th was 943.85 - if we get above that level you will see more volume coming into the markets - no one can make money in a money market account. There is tremendous liquity availabe to push this puppy higher.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree now you can look at the tracker and see that I spend very little time in the G. BUT another 400 pts. and we will still be straining OUR necks looking up at the G. Although we won't be straining as much:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The sooner we get to 943.85 then the real fun will start. Off the Nov. 20th bottom it took two months - we could be there by the end of March - just two weeks.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Last few minutes some profit taking. Oh well, we did not get this low over nite.
Big day tomorrow-Do we give up the week
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Foreclosures Up 30% In February
- Associated Press 3/12/2009

U.S. Jobless Seen Nearing 10%
- Reuters 3/12/2009

4 States With Unemployment Above 10%
- New York Times 3/12/2009

Freddie's 2008 Loss Exceeds $50 Billion
- Washington Post 3/12/2009

Largest Pension Plans' Assets Fall $217B Short
- USA Today 3/12/2009

Intel's Barret Worried About U.S. Deficit
- Washington Post 3/12/2009

GE Loses S&P’s Top-Level AAA Rating
- Bloomberg 3/12/2009

More U.S. Companies Headed for Junk Status
- Reuters 3/12/2009

BNOC: Endowment Crash Leads to Scholarship Shortfall
- Chicago Tribune 3/12/2009
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg, You are just being too positive. Cut it out, you might ruin my day. :D:D:D
 
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