Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Is This March 2003? Dow Theory Says NO." by Tim Wood

http://safehaven.com/article-12658.htm

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well at least the futures are turning up for the moment.

Yeah, that's what I thought last night before I went to bed and this morning after I awoke.

"...for the moment."

I want them to be DEEP in the red when I awake tomorrow. That should guarantee us a GREEN day, yeah?!

 

[anthony]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I must admit I'm finally beginning to feel like burnt toast.

If by 'burnt toast' you mean you're tired of getting pummelled with the same old heat from the talking heads, then I know what you mean.

I'm tired of a lot of what they say as well -- worst thing is there's so much talk and chaf and noise in the air, it can be a challenge to find the voices that are talking intelligently. So, number one I appreciate you and other members of this board who consistently post intelligent reading material from good sources.

Me, I'm buying straight into all of this fear and crap. Picked up six more stocks yesterday and I'll be buying more later this week. Bring on the discounts!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I must admit I'm finally beginning to feel like burnt toast.

Birch,
It's all the more difficult because everyone of us wants to believe that this is 'just another recession'. And our history has in NO WAY prepared us for what we're going through. The FED and Politicians have always lucked out in the past - usually by smallest margin - but as long as it worked THAT IS ALL THAT MATTERED.

There is no easy fix to this situation and we are bound to have some 'good days' to come - where the Markets go back up and everyone starts talking with upbeat sentiment and enthuiasm - BUT THE MARKETS will go down at least another 10 to 20% before it's over.

True the value of your TSP will be less than half of what is was towards the end of 2007 - but you've done nothing but accumulate more and more. In the end your confidence in the Markets will stand the test and when things rise back to the 10/07 level you will have thousands of additional shares to boost your wealth.

When I started in the TSP a little over 6 years prior I thought year after year 'How much better off I would have been if I had 100K already in my account'.

So for me THIS IS A DREAM COME TRUE - Because I'll be able to buy C/S/I at the best prices ever - and now when I'm getting 30% or better (year after year) - I'll really have something to retire on.

Anyway - hang in there - my guess is 4Q the economy will take traction and once that happens there is no turning back.

Steady

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

You are correct - these are very nice prices for the C/S/I funds. Now is the time for my G fund friends to get off the lily pad and put their money to work. Of course no one likes to be the first in unless one has the courage of Rod, one of our moderators. Let's see how long he will hold that ground.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

You are correct - these are very nice prices for the C/S/I funds. Now is the time for my G fund friends to get off the lily pad and put their money to work. Of course no one likes to be the first in unless one has the courage of Rod, one of our moderators. Let's see how long he will hold that ground.

We'll go down another 10% before it's done Birch - and 99.99% of us are 'short term' mentality

for us to lose 5 to 10% is a huge deal - 'the end of the world'

I'd say most in G will stay where they are... and wait it out.

Too many 'experts' - have gotten burned - so the overwhelming examples have proven 'safety' is better than 'risk'

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would be simply amazing if we are setting up for a bottom similar to 2002-2003. I can see where the Nov. 20th bottom could equate to the July 2002 first bottom and the Feb. 23rd bottom (if it is a final bottom) could equate to the Oct. 2002 second bottom. If we happen to follow that same scenario we will now rally strongly for several months before the next bottom retest that will equate to the final and third bottom in Mar. 2003. Then we had a 3,000 point run up into Feb. 2004. The next bull leg could potentially run double the 2003 bull leg. I'm prepared for the next four to five year bull market.

"The stock market outlook for 2009 looks very promising contrary to what most people think about the economy in the new year. If 2008 was a very bad year (and continued into 2009) 2009 will likely surprise most people to the upside. I hope you all prosper in this new cyclical bull market. The 2008 economic downturn was extremely swift and bad but the worldwide government fiscal and monetary stimulus action is also unprecedented. When this money comes into play in early 2009 together with record low interest rates (record low inflation and increased productivity) there is no doubt in my mind that stock markets and economic activity will go up, most likely in a big way. This is of course contrary to what most people and the media have to say about 2009, but then how often is the majority and media right about stock markets and economic activity?"

http://safehaven.com/article-12259.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nov. 20th was the day the DJIA gap and its 200 day moving average registered its highest level in 60 years with a reading of 34%. I wonder what the percentage reading was on Feb. 24th with the DJIA at 7114.78? I bet close to 50%.

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchy,

We need to hear the positives now more than ever. Keep'em comming!

T2D

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

World Cheers U.S. Recovery

"V Formation" confirmed

SPX - now expected to reach 1400 by year's end

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't know what your drinkin but I like the way your thinkin

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would appear that the Nikkei at 7178 is trying to catch the Dow at 7114.78. Isn't that interesting. Well at least the futures are turning up for the moment.

Very interesting...

Jan 1990:
Dow = 2753.00
Nikkei = 38,922.00

Today:
Dow = 7360.00
Nikkei = 7269.00

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thank you for your continued insight, Dennis.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I posted this article awhile back but because it's basically my investing philosophy I'm going to post it again for some of our new members.

"The point is very clear here, that almost every single disaster has yielded tremendous opportunity for those who were able (with fortitude) to take the long term view. Instead of selling everything and fleeing for the hills, investors should be buying and or at the very least holding onto their positions; the time to sell is when others are singing and jumping with joy and the time to buy is when blood is freely flowing in the streets." I'm sure glad I kept my asset base and now perhaps I'll be rewarded instead of pummeled.

http://safehaven.com/article-12234.htm

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Of course no one likes to be the first in unless one has the courage of Rod, one of our moderators. Let's see how long he will hold that ground.

I won't be holding too long. I'm through with buy-n-holding. My plan is to sell the rallies in hopes of a few % gain here and there.

I will be happy if I can gain 3% prior to exiting. Then poise myself for further gains.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

According to Dow Theory if the Industrials and Transports can now muster the strength to rally above their preceding January peaks (Industrials on January 6 at 9015.10 and Transports at 3717.26) a new primary bull market will be signaled. How long will it take to get there?

Bernanke say economic recovery in the second half of 2009. The market always leads the recovery. It is very possible that the market could be ahead of the economy by much more than 6 months. We are on a short fuse to blast off time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Now morethan ever, stocks with steady sales and earnings growth are attracting institutional buying pressure. The fact of the matter is after six straight quarters of earnings declines for the S&P 500, those stocks that are bucking the underlying market trends are exhibiting tremendous relative strength. There is one last thing we should remind you. The cash on the sidelines in money market funds remains well over 50% of the S&P 500's value. At some point, there will be a spark that will trigger an avalanche of cash pouring into thje stock market. Perhaps it will be a flagship stock with good news and positive guidance."

http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It is very possible that the market could be ahead of the economy by much more than 6 months. We are on a short fuse to blast off time.

I think the S&P will have been below 600 by 4th of July.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,
Tom and the Moderators say I have to go through you "to either enact - or establish any changes to the TSP MB" because you are the TSP Guru" Ain't that some crap


Well anyway - once a Bear Market or Recession falls below 40% of its previous High Value I think we should call it

.............................BULL S**T

To me that carries a far better tone to accurately describe the situation. Also it would help others throughout the world because that term is so vaguely applied to almost everything - and now we have a concrete defination that makes a lot of sense.

I could also picture anchor men and women and all broadcasters using this term to put us all on the same page. It just sounds a lot better - as it carries a level of frustration and disgust.

So with your permission I'd like to officially call this what it really is.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think the S&P will have been below 600 by 4th of July.

Sends shivers down my spine! Hope we're on the sidelines as the market gets to this point!