Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At this point all I can do is ride the storm. I have 8 stocks paying dividends sometime next week and then the dump truck backs up for March with over 60 dividend hits - buying on the lows will eventually be helpful - but the more I buy the greater the pain level. The S&P 710 is the trend line from 1982 - hope that holds. So far the Wilshire 5000 at 7350 and the NYSE at 4651 are holding - this may be the divergence we need. Call me a heretic but these broader indexes still remain slightly above their Nov. 20 lows, thus making it at least possible to still argue that the bear market ended three months ago.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just took it out at 12:53 EST. DJIA 7,285.23
7000 next ?? :worried:


That's probably right on target.

2 Trains of thought:
1) What we have seen in 09 is sustained and gradual instability bringing the Markets down in baby step fashion.

Eventually - REALITY - will be impossible to avoid and with that we should see a very signifcant plunge similar to 9/09

This is the one I'm more expecting

2) The baby steps will continue - and with each step will be some rallies that eventually fizzle out until the next drop.

Lastly - and the most likely one - is we are now approaching the REAL BOTTOM and from here on the Markets will soar.

Those not in - will lose out :D

sorry Birch - thought you were gone
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

That's probably right on target.

2 Trains of thought:
1) What we have seen in 09 is sustained and gradual instability bringing the Markets down in baby step fashion.

Eventually - REALITY - will be impossible to avoid and with that we should see a very signifcant plunge similar to 9/09

This is the one I'm more expecting

2) The baby steps will continue - and with each step will be some rallies that eventually fizzle out until the next drop.

Lastly - and the most likely one - is we are now approaching the REAL BOTTOM and from here on the Markets will soar.

Those not in - will lose out :D

sorry Birch - thought you were gone


S&P touched 754.25
November 20th close @ 752.44 is getting close. The intra-day low of 741.02 on November 21 is still a few ticks away.:blink:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

S&P touched 754.25
November 20th close @ 752.44 is getting close. The intra-day low of 741.02 on November 21 is still a few ticks away.:blink:

I think Lady, Frixxxx, Flixthecat, and all the others who went in today are right on target.


If I had the IFTs - and was not limited to noon cut offs - would go in now and take the chance.

It honestly looks like we are NOW at another bottom (or point of resistence) or whatever you want to call it .... and that some gains are highly likely. BUT THAT IS TOTALLY BASED ON TODAY

Yesterday was a different story - but next week is hard to tell until it gets here.

To me the main thing is NOT touching a new low - it's when that old low crashes through with great force and speed the Panic Mode will finally kick in .... so if I were in I'd be more optomistic
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We have an hour left for the bull to gore and marinate some bears - can it happen.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Longs and bulls are going to get burned at the stake and that just is the way it is going to happen at the close. That much I do know. Don't cry though...the markets will rebound next week. I hope the best for everyone...even the the markets is going to hit bottom so fast...you cannot believe how fast. :sick:

Reach down into your gut and you will know that this stick save will backfire very hard this time. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Floridians have requested 187,162 concealed-weapon permit applications over the last six months - an 82 percent increase compared with a year earlier. This is since Obama got into office. The state has a back log of 93,000 applications and has recently hired 61 workers to process them. Jobs without a stimulus package, that's progress.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,

Thanks for being 'unshakable' - for honestly being exactly who you are


In the long run everyone looks up to you for your strength and stamina - you're unending determination


and reminding everyone one of us - on a daily basis - that hope never disappears and 'the economy' will survive and be strong.

You really are a VERY RARE EXAMPLE

especially in this day and age :)

Take some time this weekend - and blend with your cat and let it blend with you - have a good one.

Steady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"IF daily price ranges contract from here, that would be an excellent sign. We will eventually see a sizeable rally but the trick is to enter when either risk is very low and/or upside potential is very high. At this time, that is not the case."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/NEWMAN.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Floridians have requested 187,162 concealed-weapon permit applications over the last six months - an 82 percent increase compared with a year earlier. This is since Obama got into office. The state has a back log of 93,000 applications and has recently hired 61 workers to process them. Jobs without a stimulus package, that's progress.

A job is a job. :D

This article is from a Memphis Tennessee newspaper which recently published a link to a database that provides the names and other personal information of all gun permit holders in the state. A lot of folks were highly pissed and protested that the list was published. Looks like some of the higher ups got the message. Personally, I don't care who knows I carry, but I'd rather not advertise the fact in the paper. I prefer the element of surprise.

Gun laws get push in Tennessee House committee
NASHVILLE -- The legislature began fast-tracking bills Thursday to let people with carry permits take guns into state and local parks and establishments serving alcohol -- all places where they are currently banned.

The House handgun study committee also recommended making secret the list of Tennessee's 219,236 gun-carry permit holders and to penalize any publication of their identities. Shelby County has 32,934 permit licensees.
The panel recommended four bills on which Chairman Joe McCord, R-Maryville, said there is broad consensus to approve. All four are set for the criminal justice subcommittee next week and could reach floor votes in March.

Lawmakers said the parks bill would prohibit cities and counties from restricting handguns in their local parks, playgrounds and ball fields.
Current Tennessee law outlaws guns in all state and local parks, playgrounds and ball fields other than by law enforcement officers.
The bill allowing guns in places serving alcohol, including restaurants, was recommended with a provision forbidding guns after 11 p.m.

The new Republican majority has made the bills' passage a virtual certainty after years of defeat. McCord said The Commercial Appeal's posting of a searchable database of permit holders on its Web site also prompted swift action.

"We've been working on this for several years, actually, but there has been a tremendous outcry to legislative offices from constituents across the state in response to that. They don't think the lists should be published."

National Rifle Association lobbyist Heidi Keesling discussed scheduling the bills in committees with lawmakers after the committee adjourned.
Rep. Curry Todd, R-Collierville, who moved for approval of the secrecy bill, said "It's no concern of mine" when asked afterward if the bill's penalties for publishing raised First Amendment concerns.

Chris Peck, editor of The Commercial Appeal, said, "Clearly, the Second Amendment gives Tennessee citizens the right to be armed. That's not the issue here. People of Tennessee need to think about whether there is a public interest in knowing who is permitted to carry a weapon in the state.

"I think there is. When a concealed or carried weapon comes out public, what happens next with that gun can affect the lives of everyone within range of that firearm."

Peck said commercialappeal.com's link to the data has attracted more than 500,000 page views in the last three months.

"To me, this shows the level of public interest in this public information," he said.

Officials in Memphis and its suburbs expressed differing views on the guns-in-parks bill.

Memphis City Councilman Shea Flinn, a member of the parks committee, said he understands allowing licensees to take guns into large state parks but questioned the wisdom of allowing them in smaller city parks.
"If you feel like you can't take your kid to the swing sets without packing heat, we've got a much bigger problem than just throwing more guns at it," he said.

Arlington Mayor Russell Wiseman said, "Personal protection is something that people feel strongly about, but I don't know why it should be so pressing to extend that to parks."

Germantown Mayor Sharon Goldsworthy said making it easier to bring guns into city parks and ball fields "feels ill-advised. This is not a good mix of where guns should be. "We've worked hard to create an environment that feels safe."

A Tennessee legislative study committee on handguns recommended approval of four bills to serve as the basis for legislative action this year, all subject to debate and amendments:

HB962: Allows handgun-carry permit holders to take guns into places serving alcohol until 11 p.m., unless owners post signs banning guns.

HB959: Makes gun-carry permit records confidential and levies fines for publishing them.

HB960: Allows permit holders to carry guns into all state and local parks.

HB961: Allows permit holders to carry handguns into state wildlife management areas.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/feb/19/tennessee-house-advances-bills-dealing-guns/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I must admit I'm finally beginning to feel like burnt toast. Here are a few words from the print edition of TWSJ from 2/21/09.
"For me to think we have tested those lows successfully and begun to recover, we need a strong rally. We need to come back with at least as much gusto as we went down," says Phil Roth, chief technical market analyst at New York brokerage firm Miller Tabak.
"The rally that began last November didn't have enough strength and breadth to signal the end of the bear market, Mr. Roth says.
Paul Desmond, president of research firm Lowry's Reports in Noth Palm Beach, Fal., has used his own propriety database to look at market bottoms back to the 1930s, and also believes stocks have further to fall. At almost every major market bottom two things happened, he says. First, investors engaged in panic selling, with declining stocks on the worst days accounting for 90% of trading volume and 90% of price moves. Then, days or weeks later, came an onslaught of panic buying, with rising stocks accounting for 90% of the volume and price moves on at least one day and often more than one. Those gains then were followed by continued heavy buying, albeit at less panicky rates.
Mr. Desmond has a simple explanation for this phenomenon. First, he says, people who have lost confidence in stocks need to finish their selling. Until they do, weak-willed investors will kill rallies by selling out as stocks begin to rise. Then, confident investors need to step in and buy in a belief that stocks have become cheap. That produces the heavy market surge. Until you have those two factors in place, you are unlikely to get a sustained advance. So investors have seen the panic selling but so far, they haven't seen the buying. The fear is that this means more selling ahead - like today."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

No sense in feeling blue my friend. Unless the good lord comes calling this evening we will wake up with as much optimism as we can muster and fan the flames of the economic engine.
You are one of the strongest characters on this MB so I know your not beaten.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Many financial advisers have been urging clients who are investing for the long run to begin buying stocks now, on the grounds that they have fallen heavily and will almost certainly be higher in the next three to five years. If people follow that advise, they should brace themselves for the risk that their stocks will fall further before they begin to nrise. That's why I'm counting on my dividends to do the heavy lifting. We are off 7,000 points from our October '07 highs of 14,154 - the Wilshire 5000 still hasn't made a new low although the NYSE did give it up today at 4633 with the previous low of 4651. So my question is did the bear market end three months ago? The 1982 uptrend line hits the S&P at 710. Heck, we only got 743 more points to loose before we hit the absolute bottom. I think we rally real soon. The current bear market has lasted 16 months so far, making it one of the longest since World War 11. On that basis, some analysts have argued that it must be running its course. I wish the mark-to-market accounting could be suspended for awhile before everything is destroyed. Unfortunately our new President doesn't have enough experience to deal appropriately with this crisis - but the at risk folks that voted him into office will fare just fine and the rest of us simply sink to the bottom of the pool.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Burnt toast?

On top of the rest of your msg - today's sell-off wasn't even a high volume one like the previous 4-5 big drops since last August. This feels very different and not good.

I'm NOT buying right now, or anytime soon.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sorry Birchtree but the people waiting for a handout do not think past tomorrow. It is much easier to wait for that rescue but there is no pride in that. I differentiate between those waiting for a handout and those asking for a hand.
And the rest of us either know how to swim, wear a life jacket or ask for a hand.
Listening to the people on this message board I know the company I keep and you are right there at the top.
You are probably right, we ARE going to get beat down somemore.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would appear that the Nikkei at 7178 is trying to catch the Dow at 7114.78. Isn't that interesting. Well at least the futures are turning up for the moment.
 
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