Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When my daughter was in high school I used to save my Subway stickers to get a free sandwhich. She would always laugh at my attempts to salvage my stickers. However, when she started college everything changed. I couldn't get close to a sticker. She would volunteer to play gopher as much as possible so she could grab the stickers for herself - it was funny to watch. I'm sure there is an economic lesson here. Now I'm informed that she will be calling more often since she has enrolled in an MBA program with the University of Florida. She has been told that her team will be responsible for reading articles from TWSJ - she grew up watching me read that paper. So now good ole dad has even more value. At any rate Captain "Buzz" is doing fine with the 25th Infantry Division.

That's wonderful Birch !!

I also want to second GGal - in you 'being an inspiration'

Seems most get caught up in the day to day - and here I don't mean this MB but people in general - and so when VERY SOLID COMPANY STOCKS SELL FOR NICKELS AND DIMES most of them think the stocks aren't worth buying.

But on the whole I FIRMLY BELIEVE you have a knack of finding the SOLID DEALS that are not only selling cheap - but all the more are LONG TERM PLAYERS well prepared for years and years to come.

That goes way beyond jumping in and out of Funds - and down the line you won't have to ask me to buy you a coke or if I'd get you a sandwhich - or put you up for the night... cause you'll be able to buy cases of coke and even buy the stores that make the sandwhiches and someday even have your own place to sit back and rest.

 

[Prozium]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Subway does not take those stickers anymore.

Is that irony or what?

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Subway does not take those stickers anymore.

Is that irony or what?

So much for buy and hold. I tried saving up those stickers for years! Now they're worthless.

:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The best deal in my town is David's BBQ Baker's Dozen - buy 12 dinners and get the 13th free. And on Tuesdays you would get double stamps. The staff is mostly tatooed and pierced with a few x-inmates tossed in for diversity. My daughter used to work part-time next door in a donut shop during her last two years of Army ROTC. When she told the staff next door that I was a Vietnam Veteran I acquired the nickname of Boss. A good many of the retired military folks used to hang at the donut shop and when they learned "Buzz" was in Army ROTC you could just sense the admiration - aside from the fact she always held her own with the boys. She never had a serious boyfriend in high school or college because of her reputation - she could drink most of them under the table and therefore it cost too much to get her drunk. Ah, those were the days. Someday I'll tell you about my 2 am phone call from one of our local greasy spoons. If I ever acquire a boat I'm going to name it "The Mendacious B" so I can explain the nickname to my grandchildren - that'll be fun.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The low of October 9, 2002 was 7286 for the DJIA. The March 11, 2003 low was at 7524 for a successful retest. The VIX stood above 80 on November 20th, it closed Tuesday at 48.63. I've already paid my price so I prefer no big rally at this point until after March - when I dump a big load of dividends into the account for reinvestment.

 

[poolman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The low of October 9, 2002 was 7286 for the DJIA. The March 11, 2003 low was at 7524 for a successful retest. The VIX stood above 80 on November 20th, it closed Tuesday at 48.63. I've already paid my price so I prefer no big rally at this point until after March - when I dump a big load of dividends into the account for reinvestment.

Even Dividend paying stock's are getting there dividends cut now Birch.

It's getting pretty rough out here. I would hold on to them dividends and

wait for Dow 6500.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My SYY just increased its dividend while my EXM just suspended its dividend. I'm simply trying to take opportunity of the available funds to further shop for value. When the bull returns I'll be back to active purchases chasing the market all the way up - just like I did on the way down. Until then the dividends will do the heavy lifting.

"What interests us is the observation that a benchmark low is usually tested at least four times by the S&P before the market turns up decisively. This zone has been established (800-825) as a supporting floor at least four times since November. In every major bear market since 1974 the S&P's benchmark support following the final low was tested four times before the market launched a cyclical recovery rally. This was true following the 1974 bear market low (40-year cycle bottom), the 1982 bottom (8-year cycle bottom), the 2002 bottom (12-year cycle bottom), and the 2008 bottom (6-year cycle bottom. The SPX has tested its benchmark support zone several times over the intervening months and based on historical comparisons, in keeping with Kress cycle considerations, a solid base has been built from which a new cyclical recovery will be launched".

http://safehaven.com/article-12632.htm

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hmmmm:

So you're saying you'll accept a 90% reduction in stock price to get a dividend? And what are these stocks? Banks? Carmakers? Homebuilders? Maybe some tech? like Dell perhaps.

This is a Scorch-A-Rama year; the housing "bailout" isn't enough money (good thing, cause that means it won't delay the bottom further), so I see somewhere in the 625-690 range on the S&P by June. Like when the layoffs, carmaker consolidations, and the bigger wave of foreclosures (the jumbo's; the alt A's; underwater traditional refi's) hits in.

Them right there methinks may be a buying opportunity. Or watch our tracker leaders.......I'm still a bit awestruck at some of the timing, such as Pool's move to F-fund recently (I mis-timed my similar raise in F).

Anything above G-fund this year will deserve applause; anything in the black deserves honorable mention.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Did I read some where that 200 BN of the new bailout money came from Gov securities.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If the VIX breaks and sustains beneath support, then I have to think that it will continue lower - and that it will coincide with more additional strength in the equity market. A VIX of 23 here we come. Any move up could easily develope into a better than a 50% rally. I'm prepared to catch the wave.

http://www.mptrader.com/mpmarkets/12/2008/19/

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The fine Meredith Whitney has recently left her Openheimer employer and has opened her own shop. She has gained prominence by being correct on the banking system crisis. This could be a signal that things are getting ready to turn around....that's just the way I think.

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Or, it could be that business is tanking around her and she could do better on her own. Profits are going to be hard to come by so she is sailing on her own to get as much of the pie as possible.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The fine Meredith Whitney has recently left her Openheimer employer and has opened her own shop. She has gained prominence by being correct on the banking system crisis. This could be a signal that things are getting ready to turn around....that's just the way I think.

My guess is the biggest signal pointing to a Bottom and the chance of 'turning around' will be tomorrow


If things pan out the way I'm thinking... we should have a repeat of the 9/08 to 11/08 over the next 3 months...

.... that will bring us to the REAL BOTTOM and at a speed by which a V Formation is possible

all we can do is hope for the best.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The rise in the M2 measurement of money supply is saying monetary policy is pretty easy and the economy may pick up before the consensus expects it - according to Paul Kasriel, chief economist for the Northern Trust. Growth in the money supply was the main contributor to the second straight monthly rise in the index of leading economic indicators, which tries to forecast economic activity six to nine months in the future. It takes six to nine months for a pickup in money supply to take effect. That would mean a turnaround is already underway. The combination of money supply growing plus the fiscal stimulus means we would expect the market to move sharply higher in the coming months. People are looking at different metrics, and money supply has made a resurgence."

http://www.marketwatch.com "Money supply, in vogue again?" by Laura Mandaro

 

[Handballer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, my good friend - sorry about stealing your thread

I lost 30% of what I started the year with (2008)

Hi Steady. I hope you make a bundle this year. I'm not employed.
I'm Cool, mostly cause of my environment.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hi Steady. I hope you make a bundle this year. I'm not employed.
I'm Cool, mostly cause of my environment.

I'm sure that a lot of people on this MB besides me hope the very best for you. Hopefully you've got a good support system with family, friend, and the community.

This is a long rain storm my friend - and eventually it will pass. It's really too bad that it's the good ole everyday decent person who's suffering the most.

Anyway - I may not make a bundle - but my main goal is to largely preserve what I have. THANK YOU !!

***************************************************************

Birch,
I thought about one of your comments yesterday "I hear a lot of bears huffing and puffing and I'm glad I'm in a brick house".

YOU give us WAY too much CREDIT. We're just a bunch of rabbits Birch - and all of us would run like hell if even a bear cub came anywhere near us. There are still a bunch of little rabbits that have stayed in the nest (G Fund) and are cozy and warm - with no desire to move. The rest of us get restless - but all of us are highly cautious and constantly on the look out. When we step out of the hole it is often with trembling and shaking... very weary ... ready to run.

SO if you hear the huffing and puffing of a BEAR then it's either the real thing - or thousands of us panting at the same time.

Think of us as a bunch of civilians - that have pretty much limited ourselves to watching the breeze blow the limbs and listen to the birds. THEN THINK OF A MARINE - gung ho - BULL that never gets phased by anything.

I hope this helps you understand the rest of us a little better - we are all a bunch of rabbits.

 

[mojo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
If you decide you want to unload a few of those coins to some sucker at 20 over spot + shipping let me know

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would appear that the market is pushing for Dow 7286 which was the low of October 9, 2002.

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Okay, here is is my greed statement....let me get up on my soapbox. The time to buy is fast approaching. Greed is a very powerful force after the panic has set in. I see panic developing and will probably be in full force shortly. I'm going to make a move for a short play here. Possibly risking staying in longer for a longer play if I'm off. I doubt we are going to sink much further without a relief rally.

However...I must go with my instincts which indicated new low's by Friday. Friday is here and I said I would buy it. So, before noon, unless market conditions drastically change upwards, I'm in 100 percent S or some high variation of S and low C fund.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would appear that the market is pushing for Dow 7286 which was the low of October 9, 2002.

Just took it out at 12:53 EST. DJIA 7,285.23
7000 next ?? :worried: