JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 971
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Good read there Mr. Birchtree, you wouldn't be turning bearish now would you?
Good read there Mr. Birchtree, you wouldn't be turning bearish now would you?
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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The fact is that all markets are holding up in face of horrendous news and Asian markets are nowhere near the lows recorded last fall - a positive divergence. It is possible that markets break to new lows in the near-term but we suspect such a decline will be brief. So, the current levels offer a compelling entry point foa a 5-7 year investment." That sounds right up my alley.
http://safehaven.com/article-12593.htm
"The fact is that all markets are holding up in face of horrendous news and Asian markets are nowhere near the lows recorded last fall - a positive divergence. It is possible that markets break to new lows in the near-term but we suspect such a decline will be brief. So, the current levels offer a compelling entry point foa a 5-7 year investment." That sounds right up my alley.
http://safehaven.com/article-12593.htm
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
When our Economy really takes 'traction' - I mean for real and this whole situation is a thing of the past and we are solidly heading up...
the odds of better than a 30% gain the first year is probably 99.99%
the odds of better than a 25% gain the next is probably the same
SO I SEE BETTER THAN A 50% GAIN in 2 YEARS.
Would you agree with this projection???
Birch,
When our Economy really takes 'traction' - I mean for real and this whole situation is a thing of the past and we are solidly heading up...
the odds of better than a 30% gain the first year is probably 99.99%
the odds of better than a 25% gain the next is probably the same
SO I SEE BETTER THAN A 50% GAIN in 2 YEARS.
Would you agree with this projection???
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Steady - certainly I gree with your projections but they might be a little on the light side.
Here are a few choice comments from Henry To: "The question is: does your psychological make up allow you to take short-term but significant losses in the hope of long-term and outsized investment gains? (You bet). By having a disciplined asset allocation (TSP or otherwise) and a long-term plan you will prosper in the long run. In order to succeed in investing, you need to understand your own risk tolerance, have a long-term plan, and have the right expectations for your investment strategies. This will not only ensure that you will not sell your stocks at the worst possible time, but that you will not be taken out by large losses. More importantly, assuming you have a proper asset allocation to begin with, you will be able to utilize any decline as an opportunity to put more of your investments into equities to take advantage of the great companies that are selling at large discounts to their historical valuations." I can say Birchtree followed the script.
http://marketthoughts.com/z20081228.html
Steady - certainly I gree with your projections but they might be a little on the light side.
Here are a few choice comments from Henry To: "The question is: does your psychological make up allow you to take short-term but significant losses in the hope of long-term and outsized investment gains? (You bet). By having a disciplined asset allocation (TSP or otherwise) and a long-term plan you will prosper in the long run. In order to succeed in investing, you need to understand your own risk tolerance, have a long-term plan, and have the right expectations for your investment strategies. This will not only ensure that you will not sell your stocks at the worst possible time, but that you will not be taken out by large losses. More importantly, assuming you have a proper asset allocation to begin with, you will be able to utilize any decline as an opportunity to put more of your investments into equities to take advantage of the great companies that are selling at large discounts to their historical valuations." I can say Birchtree followed the script.
http://marketthoughts.com/z20081228.html
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well a $9.58 C fund price ain't bad - I'll graciously accept it. Here are a few choice comments from James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management for those who are not completely bearish.
"It isn't just high-grade corporate bonds that are rebounding. Junk bonds are up, companies are finding it easier to issue commercial paper and mortgage rates are down.
Typically, the stock market rebounds months ahead of the economy, meaning that you need to hold your nose and buy stocks when the economy still looks terrible. He has studied past rebounds after major declines, and found that they can be much sharper than people realize. He has been bullish and wrong up to now but now he believes signs are pointing his way. He thinks most of the storm is past. When the stock market does turn the corner, it is going to be quicker, faster and hardfer than people think." Time will tell.
Well a $9.58 C fund price ain't bad - I'll graciously accept it. Here are a few choice comments from James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management for those who are not completely bearish.
"It isn't just high-grade corporate bonds that are rebounding. Junk bonds are up, companies are finding it easier to issue commercial paper and mortgage rates are down.
Typically, the stock market rebounds months ahead of the economy, meaning that you need to hold your nose and buy stocks when the economy still looks terrible. He has studied past rebounds after major declines, and found that they can be much sharper than people realize. He has been bullish and wrong up to now but now he believes signs are pointing his way. He thinks most of the storm is past. When the stock market does turn the corner, it is going to be quicker, faster and hardfer than people think." Time will tell.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Anytime it's under $10 - you can't possibly go wrong.
Now everyone in the TSP has a solid reason to celebrate. This may turn out to be a hard year for many to handle if they are looking at the Markets every day (20 X a day) .... waiting for the BULL.
For me - the buys are even better down the road when I'm buying thousands of shares for under $9 dollars - maybe even under $8
I can hardly wait to let my my wife and kids know how much my account grew from 2009 to 2012
Whatever I lost in 2008 won't mean a thing
Anytime it's under $10 - you can't possibly go wrong.
Now everyone in the TSP has a solid reason to celebrate. This may turn out to be a hard year for many to handle if they are looking at the Markets every day (20 X a day) .... waiting for the BULL.
For me - the buys are even better down the road when I'm buying thousands of shares for under $9 dollars - maybe even under $8
I can hardly wait to let my my wife and kids know how much my account grew from 2009 to 2012
Whatever I lost in 2008 won't mean a thing
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've been reviewing my 2007 tax return to reintroduce myself to what needs to be done. I pulled a few forms from the IRS that I'll need and will start collecting my data - drug costs, investment expenses, capital gains work sheet for equities and dividends, other taxes that I've paid, etc. I added up all my saved sales taxes last year and was still short from what the tax table provided according to income - you almost have to make a substantial purchase like a boat or car to max over the limit. I was surprised at how much profit I took in 2007 - not exactly a buy and holder all the time. Now I'll have to account for a nice profit in 2008. If I were in the 15% tax bracket my capital gains tax and dividend tax would be 0%. BHO will more than likely kill that tax break before I can utilize it - but he'll only be a one termer so there is always hope for a renewal package. Like everything else in life it's all in the timing.
"Bespoke: Percentage of stocks above 50-day moving averages. Below we highlight the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that is currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. As shown, even though the S&P 500 has been getting close to touching its November lows recently, 42% of stocks in the index are above their 50-days. This means breadth within the index is still strong even though the index itself has been struggling."
"John Auther explains why dividends are the key to finding long-term value in equities."
http://safehaven.com/article-12611.htm
I've been reviewing my 2007 tax return to reintroduce myself to what needs to be done. I pulled a few forms from the IRS that I'll need and will start collecting my data - drug costs, investment expenses, capital gains work sheet for equities and dividends, other taxes that I've paid, etc. I added up all my saved sales taxes last year and was still short from what the tax table provided according to income - you almost have to make a substantial purchase like a boat or car to max over the limit. I was surprised at how much profit I took in 2007 - not exactly a buy and holder all the time. Now I'll have to account for a nice profit in 2008. If I were in the 15% tax bracket my capital gains tax and dividend tax would be 0%. BHO will more than likely kill that tax break before I can utilize it - but he'll only be a one termer so there is always hope for a renewal package. Like everything else in life it's all in the timing.
"Bespoke: Percentage of stocks above 50-day moving averages. Below we highlight the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that is currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. As shown, even though the S&P 500 has been getting close to touching its November lows recently, 42% of stocks in the index are above their 50-days. This means breadth within the index is still strong even though the index itself has been struggling."
"John Auther explains why dividends are the key to finding long-term value in equities."
http://safehaven.com/article-12611.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
A point to remember going forward. In 2011 the IRS is going to require all brokers and dealers to report the cost basis purchase of stocks and mutual funds and etc along with the gross sales prices on 1099s. I can assure you my masseuse won't like that idea. It looks like I will get a chance at the $1200 recovery rebate credit - I just don't know yet what the amount will be - but any amount will help. It's on line 70. The rebate recovery is for those that never got a stimulus check.
A point to remember going forward. In 2011 the IRS is going to require all brokers and dealers to report the cost basis purchase of stocks and mutual funds and etc along with the gross sales prices on 1099s. I can assure you my masseuse won't like that idea. It looks like I will get a chance at the $1200 recovery rebate credit - I just don't know yet what the amount will be - but any amount will help. It's on line 70. The rebate recovery is for those that never got a stimulus check.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"As the November, 2008 lows are approached, this is the most bullish reading for the smart money in 18 weeks. Typically, the dumb money is sitting on the side lines when the markets start to move higher."
http://safehaven.com/article-12627.htm
"As the November, 2008 lows are approached, this is the most bullish reading for the smart money in 18 weeks. Typically, the dumb money is sitting on the side lines when the markets start to move higher."
http://safehaven.com/article-12627.htm
Handballer
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 12
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Steady "I can hardly wait to let my my wife and kids know how much my account grew from 2009 to 2012"
You would do that? Let us know too, if we are still around.
Steady "Whatever I lost in 2008 won't mean a thing"
Okay, tell the wife and us too. :cheesy::cheesy:
Steady "I can hardly wait to let my my wife and kids know how much my account grew from 2009 to 2012"
You would do that? Let us know too, if we are still around.
Steady "Whatever I lost in 2008 won't mean a thing"
Okay, tell the wife and us too. :cheesy::cheesy:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch, my good friend - sorry about stealing your thread
I lost 30% of what I started the year with (2008)
....but I look at the Bright Side...the prices currently available and all the more the prices to come FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS will not be seen again for many years to come - I doubt they ever get as low as this year will provide
so for those that are stock piling their money (and have largely been stock piling it) THEY WILL MAKE A TON.
Birch, my good friend - sorry about stealing your thread
Steady "I can hardly wait to let my my wife and kids know how much my account grew from 2009 to 2012"
You would do that? Let us know too, if we are still around.
Handballer,
Hopefully you're in a job that is more crucial to the system you work for and I sincerly hope your job is secure.
The 'Doom and Gloom' is all you hear and all there seems to be for the present. But this occurs everytime the Cycle swings on the negative side and it has to last a LONG TIME - based on the past 6 years.
This is the 'Last Year' - you can count on things to turn around - for the economy to finally take traction - and when it does things will SOAR with tremendous strength.
Simply look at the Auto Tracker and watch the Percentage Growth associated with my name. It really doesn't matter what amount you start with but you could safely say "$100,000".
Steady "Whatever I lost in 2008 won't mean a thing"
Okay, tell the wife and us too. :cheesy::cheesy:
I lost 30% of what I started the year with (2008)
....but I look at the Bright Side...the prices currently available and all the more the prices to come FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS will not be seen again for many years to come - I doubt they ever get as low as this year will provide
so for those that are stock piling their money (and have largely been stock piling it) THEY WILL MAKE A TON.
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
....Unless we end up like Japan, in which case, 19 years after their high, they are now down about...oh, 80% or so?
The DOW analog is that we are at DOW 2800 in the year 2019.
....Unless we end up like Japan, in which case, 19 years after their high, they are now down about...oh, 80% or so?
The DOW analog is that we are at DOW 2800 in the year 2019.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Friends don't let friends 'Buy and Hold'....
When the DOW is 2800 - I should have 4 or 5 times more than I have now.... and I will think (as I think this moment) ... the lower the better
Friends don't let friends 'Buy and Hold'....
When the DOW is 2800 - I should have 4 or 5 times more than I have now.... and I will think (as I think this moment) ... the lower the better
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
So it looks like today may be another crummy day - what else is new. My small blessing is that I have seven dividend reinvestments hitting on the close - and they will all hurt me if we go lower. But sometimes you have to experience the pain before you are capable of enjoying the gains. Here are a few words from Richard Russell: "Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes and just do it. Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money."
So it looks like today may be another crummy day - what else is new. My small blessing is that I have seven dividend reinvestments hitting on the close - and they will all hurt me if we go lower. But sometimes you have to experience the pain before you are capable of enjoying the gains. Here are a few words from Richard Russell: "Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes and just do it. Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money."
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Charts told us it was going to be a crappy day last week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkqb1pQrCcg
Charts told us it was going to be a crappy day last week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkqb1pQrCcg
GGal
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 8
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch, glad you're still hanging in there...I'm right there with you, and following your previous advice and regularly buying good dividend paying stocks.
Either we're gonna come outa this thing or it's the end of the world....either way, we're okay.
I'm happy to say that I own two stocks that are still worth more than I paid for them, RNT and ALNY.
Thanks for your inspiration.
GGAL
Birch, glad you're still hanging in there...I'm right there with you, and following your previous advice and regularly buying good dividend paying stocks.
Either we're gonna come outa this thing or it's the end of the world....either way, we're okay.
I'm happy to say that I own two stocks that are still worth more than I paid for them, RNT and ALNY.
Thanks for your inspiration.
GGAL
turbo23dog
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchy,
High Five...
Birchy,
High Five...
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I have another five dividend reinvestments that will hit my account on the close and that's about all I can do right now - I'm not inclined to sell anything. March will be a good month for my dividend reinvestments so that's not long to wait.
"If the global economy continues to deteriorate at the rate it is doing so, a Dow at 6000 has gone from the unthinkable to the quite plausible. Remember: All stock prices reflect is the expectation of the future stream of earnings. If investors now believe the recession is going to be longer and deeper than they believed yesterday, stock prices must resume their downward trend." A C fund price of $9.15 or lower is excellent and I'll collect mine again on the 27th.
http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2009/0216.html
I have another five dividend reinvestments that will hit my account on the close and that's about all I can do right now - I'm not inclined to sell anything. March will be a good month for my dividend reinvestments so that's not long to wait.
"If the global economy continues to deteriorate at the rate it is doing so, a Dow at 6000 has gone from the unthinkable to the quite plausible. Remember: All stock prices reflect is the expectation of the future stream of earnings. If investors now believe the recession is going to be longer and deeper than they believed yesterday, stock prices must resume their downward trend." A C fund price of $9.15 or lower is excellent and I'll collect mine again on the 27th.
http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/navarro/2009/0216.html
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
As ODD as this may sound - it's when everyone is saying get the hell out of the Markets - I'm most apt to go in.
Yesterday/Today is a good example. The more BEARISH the sentiment - the most likely I am to get ahead.
Short term - I'm VERY BULLISH !!!
BTW - Subway - $5 footlongs - any one you want - anyway you want... heading out now.
As ODD as this may sound - it's when everyone is saying get the hell out of the Markets - I'm most apt to go in.
Yesterday/Today is a good example. The more BEARISH the sentiment - the most likely I am to get ahead.
Short term - I'm VERY BULLISH !!!
BTW - Subway - $5 footlongs - any one you want - anyway you want... heading out now.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
When my daughter was in high school I used to save my Subway stickers to get a free sandwhich. She would always laugh at my attempts to salvage my stickers. However, when she started college everything changed. I couldn't get close to a sticker. She would volunteer to play gopher as much as possible so she could grab the stickers for herself - it was funny to watch. I'm sure there is an economic lesson here. Now I'm informed that she will be calling more often since she has enrolled in an MBA program with the University of Florida. She has been told that her team will be responsible for reading articles from TWSJ - she grew up watching me read that paper. So now good ole dad has even more value. At any rate Captain "Buzz" is doing fine with the 25th Infantry Division.
When my daughter was in high school I used to save my Subway stickers to get a free sandwhich. She would always laugh at my attempts to salvage my stickers. However, when she started college everything changed. I couldn't get close to a sticker. She would volunteer to play gopher as much as possible so she could grab the stickers for herself - it was funny to watch. I'm sure there is an economic lesson here. Now I'm informed that she will be calling more often since she has enrolled in an MBA program with the University of Florida. She has been told that her team will be responsible for reading articles from TWSJ - she grew up watching me read that paper. So now good ole dad has even more value. At any rate Captain "Buzz" is doing fine with the 25th Infantry Division.
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