Birchtree's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"...the skies are clearing for a four to five year bull market: surging liquidity, low interest rates, declining corporate bond yields, declining TED spread, low valuations, volatility has peaked, the US dollar rally has ended, global stock markets are making higher lows, and a huge amount of cash on the sidelines."

http://safehaven.com/article-12272

Hey birch: I dunno who you're quoting, but the TED spread is still at 115 bp's; roughly 2.5X historical; the declining bond yields are a consequence of increasing bond value; there is no "cash on the sidelines", if you include debt; a peak in VIX does not mean the current VIX is low (45+); and low valuations don't mean they won't go lower.

Sounds like alot of bull to me. Hope you have a picture of the market at 1,000 to look at; bcz that's the only way you'll see it again this year, maybe next.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I'm standing on the edge of the cliff - holding myself (so I don't lose control when I jump in).

That's right Birch - I'm jumping in and I'm going all the way.

50% C Fund/50% S Fund

WHY?? Because that's the U.S.A. and I'm not about to jump into someone else's Markets - when I served my country and by golly I'm going in now to do my part.

WHY?? Because the FEAR has hit - and the Pansies are taking over. So when they get out - I go in.

WHY?? Because days like today are meant for those with nerves of steel (or maybe those with little brains)

So the BOTTOM LINE - The BULL may not be here for awhile - but up days are a guaranteed event - even in the worst of weakness.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Could today end up being a Kangaroo tail day? Any volume right now is on the sell side at 300 million to 5 million - it's time for the bulls to step up. Oil could possibly break below $35 - so I'm just riding the cycles waiting on my next contribution.

 

[anthony]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"...the skies are clearing for a four to five year bull market: surging liquidity, low interest rates, declining corporate bond yields, declining TED spread, low valuations, volatility has peaked, the US dollar rally has ended, global stock markets are making higher lows, and a huge amount of cash on the sidelines."

http://safehaven.com/article-12272

Birchtree, could you repost or update the link to this. I'm getting a dead link, but I am interested in the material. Thanks for posting it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here you go anthony

http://safehaven.com/article-12292.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Since the TED spread peak of 4.65% on October 10, the measure has eased to a five month low 0.97% - well above the 38 point spread it averaged during the twelve month prior to the start of the crisis, but nevertheless a strong move in the right direction. Similar to the TED spread, the narrowing in the LIBOR-OIS spread since October is also a move in the right direction."

http://safehaven.com/article-12319.htm

 

[HappyGoLucky]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

AMEN, Steady!! I hear you and I either have nerves of steel or no brain - cause I am all in. The only way is see is up and I'm hoping for a bounce. I'm riding it all the way for now....

 

[NyteTracker]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Mutual fund and hedge fund managers can't buy shares in these companies right now -- but you can."
Why are they locked out and how broad is this rule? tia
Jumped back in to FCX and SLW today.

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

AMEN, Steady!! I hear you and I either have nerves of steel or no brain - cause I am all in. The only way is see is up and I'm hoping for a bounce. I'm riding it all the way for now....

If you look at the recent IFTs, alot of us spilled their grey matter on the floor today!! Good luck to all adventurous gamblers tomorrow and the rest of the week.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"2009 Market Update and Short Term Forecast"

http://safehaven.com/article-12327.htm

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"2009 Market Update and Short Term Forecast"

http://safehaven.com/article-12327.htm

The trick however, is to find a strategy that works for you as an individual. Personally, I have adapted a strategy that involves identifying secular trends and then digging deeper for intermediate trends and taking advantage of opportunities.

This was taken directly from your link...that's my thinking as well

BTW - our friend is not in the Auto Tracker - so I'll post a new rule on my thread. "Don't talk crap" unless you're on the AT.

Later Birch...and thanks for your comment earlier.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dividend Stocks That Shouldn't Disappoint
[SIZE=-1]Barron's - 46 minutes ago

[/SIZE]Even in a recession, ‘dividend fountains' flow
[SIZE=-1]Globe and Mail, Canada - 1 hour ago[/SIZE]

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The trick however, is to find a strategy that works for you as an individual. Personally, I have adapted a strategy that involves identifying secular trends and then digging deeper for intermediate trends and taking advantage of opportunities.

This was taken directly from your link...that's my thinking as well

BTW - our friend is not in the Auto Tracker - so I'll post a new rule on my thread. "Don't talk crap" unless you're on the AT.

Later Birch...and thanks for your comment earlier.

The Tracker adds credence and proof of your success or failure, without that your comments can't be taken seriously. We have had Members in the past that only cared about LOOKING GOOD, and would not post on the tracker because they were not truthful. When you're on the Tracker there is PROOF and you receive respect from the other members whether you are winning or losing.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dickensian Days
[SIZE=-1]Forbes, NY[/SIZE]

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Arrgg...this market is not for the faint of heart. Birchtree gives me a reason to hope for a better future for the markets. All the doom and gloom talk is giving me restless nights.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Arrgg...this market is not for the faint of heart. Birchtree gives me a reason to hope for a better future for the markets. All the doom and gloom talk is giving me restless nights.

Feeling down?

No reason to live?

Don't worry, your good buddy Birch will always be there to lift you up when your sobbing on the floor stuck in the fetal position.

We all know Birch receives flack for his views, but he doesn't always have to be Mr. Right Now. He just has to be Mr. Right When He Retires...

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Tracker adds credence and proof of your success or failure, without that your comments can't be taken seriously. We have had Members in the past that only cared about LOOKING GOOD, and would not post on the tracker because they were not truthful. When you're on the Tracker there is PROOF and you receive respect from the other members whether you are winning or losing.

AMEN!! Brother

Very well put. Thanks

Arrgg...this market is not for the faint of heart. Birchtree gives me a reason to hope for a better future for the markets. All the doom and gloom talk is giving me restless nights.

Birch knows 'the bottomline truth' which absolutely no one can argue against. THE ECONOMY WILL PREVAIL - Weakness in the Markets shakes out the failures that cause that weakness and 'The Economy Emerges even Stronger'

So in the long run the odds are always in favor of the BULL

Felixthecat,
The Economy (Markets) expanded way too fast and for too long- and this contraction (Recession) was unavoidable. If the Markets substantially dive in the months to come - then the favored V Formation will bring a sustainded BULL MARKET. If it creeps down then it may roll on the bottom several months longer.

None of us would even be on this site if we didn't believe in the Markets - but no one demonstrates that better than Birch.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Things are rather quiet around here - just collecting my January dividends for reinvestment. The problem is that everytime I purchase more stock and the market goes down I feel a little more pain - but that's the required sacrifice to get the increased income. I'm already waiting on February to roll around to further collect more income and then my biggest month is up again during March. The ongoing liquidation of all assets is providing long-term investors with ba fantastic buying opportunity. Still holding all my recently acquired assets while waiting for the bottom process to play out. Snort.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Mutual fund and hedge fund managers can't buy shares in these companies right now -- but you can."
Why are they locked out and how broad is this rule? tia
Jumped back in to FCX and SLW today.

They cannot invest in stocks whose share prices are less than $5.00, is the rule as I read it recently. FCX has been down around $2 something in recent weeks, don't know about SLW.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I prefer to manage my own mutual fund with my 323 stocks. That provides me with total control without encumbrances. I made 432 stock purchases last fall on the bottoms and spent over $500K so I'm in really deep. When this market rebounds I'll be totally set - and will just keep making gains, taking a few profits to refurbish my reserves and reinvest the rest as we move up. Until then I'll just keep reinvesting my dividends and paying my taxes. But if the rocket developes as I suspect then I'll rotate some profits back into other positions that still need my attention - there are so many wall flowers to choose from.