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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
NyteTracker
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 2
Re: Birchtree's account talk
January 4th.
This will Cheer you up. He's not the greatest investor, but his history and knowledge is outstanding.
budnipper1
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
I felt a little gloomy for you last night with all the BEARISH sentiment going on. The fact is there is a huge bundle waiting on the side lines ready to go in. You and I and many others know this.
A lot of confussion results from Short Term investment mentality which represents 99.9% of us - versus - Long Term with enduring Bullish trends. You have every reason to be optimistic; for as long as we have an economy as it exists the US will largely be the global focal point and everything possible will be done to keep it growing. The very worst of times can only last so long and in the LONG RUN nothing is going to surpass the Stocks.
So don't let these trivial times (and our pessimistic comments) take from the inevitable gains on the horizon.
Steady
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"If the economic news remains poor for the foreseable future, should investors rule out the potential for a significant recovery in asset prices. It is my observation however that in post-war history (with the exception of the previous recession when stocks were grossly overvalued) stock markets have always commenced a new bull-market prior to the end of each recession. The ongoing liquidation of all assets is providing long-term investors with a fantastic buying opportunity. Accordingly, over the past couple of months, I have followed Birchtree and deployed all of my personal surplus cash reserves into the markets."
http://safehaven.com/article-12255.htm
budnipper1
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
And now...The rest of the story, (err-uhh paragraph) which never seemed to mention that guy, Birchtree??? :suspicious:
"Now, I concede that it is possible that prices may continue to drift lower in the short-term, but the recent market action suggests that we may have reached an important low. Unfortunately, I cannot state with certainty as to whether or not last quarter's low will turn out to be the ultimate low for this bear-market. However, I do know that investors who deploy capital in commodity stocks and bullion today, will probably be sitting on huge profits in 5 years from now."
Just showing that I'm paying attention Mr. Birchtree...keep on keepin' on!
budnipper1
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
And now...The rest of the story, (err-uhh paragraph) which never seemed to mention that guy, Birchtree??? :suspicious:
"Now, I concede that it is possible that prices may continue to drift lower in the short-term, but the recent market action suggests that we may have reached an important low. Unfortunately, I cannot state with certainty as to whether or not last quarter's low will turn out to be the ultimate low for this bear-market. However, I do know that investors who deploy capital in commodity stocks and bullion today, will probably be sitting on huge profits in 5 years from now."
Just showing that I'm paying attention Mr. Birchtree...keep on keepin' on!
I did. Thanks for cheering me up.
Did you notice how the last sentence of that quote began with "I do know"? Then, he covers his a$$ by finishing the statement with "will probably be". In other words, he's basing his assumptions on the laws of averages that seems to confirm that what goes down will eventually come back up within a 5-yr time frame. duh! I could "probably" go out on that limb.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The stock market outlook for 2009 looks very promising contrary to what most people think about the economy in the new year. If 2008 was a very bad year 2009 will likely surprise most people to the upside. The 2008 economic downturn was extremely swift and bad but the worldwide government fiscal and monetary stimulus action is also unprecedented. When this money comes into play in early 2009 together with record low interest rates there is no doubt in my mind and Birchtree thinks the same way that stock markets and economic activity will go up, most likely in a big way. This is of course contrary to what most people and the media have to say about 2009, but then how often is the majority and media right about stock markets and economic activity? I hope you all prosper in this new cyclical bull market."
http://safehaven.com/article-12259.htm
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Re: Birchtree's account talk
What a tricky way to make sure that we read every word of your quotes.
:laugh:
Lady
poolman
Top Return 2008
- Reaction score
- 70
Re: Birchtree's account talk
What a tricky way to make sure that we read every word of your quotes. :laugh:
Lady
There are a couple of people like that. No Comment. :blink::notrust:
budnipper1
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I resemble that remark!!!
(we still love you, MR. Birchtree)
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Holding 68C and 32I - no moves this week. We've had six major panic selloffs in the stock market since 1900, where we were down 40% or 50%. One of those one was the Great Depression, where we went down another 45% from there. That's the one everyone is focusing on, but the other five, every one of them recovered 75% of their panic low within 18 months of their low. I can wait.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The way I see it is: Money going to the side lines is the Rocket Fuel blending with the stock piles already in place.
Once that fuel is ignited the first 15 to 20% will be missed by those in Safety. They will wait - thinking this can't be real - and probably miss another 15% before deciding to go in.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The Cycle of Economic Deflation During 2009.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article8179.html
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
This breaks my heart seeing a post like this from you.
Hang in there my friend - once the BS infilltrates in the system it's a long process - hopefully in the end we'll all be better off.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Confucius Say:
You must be IN to WIN
No one know when rocket take off -
................therefore you must be ready
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"...the skies are clearing for a four to five year bull market: surging liquidity, low interest rates, declining corporate bond yields, declining TED spread, low valuations, volatility has peaked, the US dollar rally has ended, global stock markets are making higher lows, and a huge amount of cash on the sidelines."
http://safehaven.com/article-12272Similar threads
