Birchtree's Account Talk

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Couple of traders on Trader's Talk are saying that VIX is poised to move down, which would seem to imply equities would move up. We seem to be slowly confirming an IT up trend.

Birch did okay with C and GM very short term and have been playing around with DRYS and some other shipping stocks watching the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) for the shippers. DRYS popped nicely from around 4 to 12 and currently sitting at around 11. Seems to drop at the end of each day where I have been buying and then you get a $1 + pop to start the morning.

As long as the BDI keeps going up there might be some hope for actually investing in some of the shippers. Right now trading vehicle only but could change over. Lots of stocks to choose from and still am playing the trading range of 7800 to 9800 but things are becoming more fluid all the time.

Best

Cayman (off the meds- much better)

That dilaudid is deadly - I never really been exposed to POTENT drugs but that one flattened me.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman (off the meds- much better)

That dilaudid is deadly - I never really been exposed to POTENT drugs but that one flattened me.

Yep, vegetized my wife for a few months, unfortunately, she maxed out a credit card on-line buying Christmas gifts last year. Fortunately though, I had gifts paid for this year!!!!

Glad to hear you're off the meds!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From Ernie Ankrim: "I have no doubt that present conditions offer great buying opportunities for stocks. Although only the most iron-willed investor would stroll calmly into equities. If you're along term investor, hold as much risk as you can tolerate. Historically, stocks tend to turn up a little more than halfway through a recession, and have posted 40% returns on average, 12 months after the turn. Not only is the Nikkei 225 trading where it was in 1982, but it is trading at a mere 4 times cash flow."

From John Murphy: "A reliable measure of the market's strength or weakness can be found in the % of NYSE stocks trading above their 200-day averages. A reading above 60% is normally needed to signal a new bull market. The trend during 2008 is still a very low 4%. That means that 96% of NYSE stocks are trading below their 200-day lines, and it doesn't show any sign of turning higher."

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20081214

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If this momentum decides to carry forward I'll be forced to re-enter the market and do more buying instead of resting - we'll see. I hate the thought of this market running away from me even though I'm already loaded up to my chin. I suspect we just went through the NYSE breadth MCSUM tops line heading for -250 and then to the zero line. Did the VIX break below the triangular pattern - heading now for low 40s.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This time around the TRIN reading of 10.18 was extremely high by historical standards and even by this year's standard of frequent panic selling and hyper volatility. Is it possible that the Dec. 1 decline in the major indices represented the last stage in the capitulation process? I'm inclined to believe that this was indeed a sign of ultimate capitulation.

Most of this year's volatility was a function of the crossing currents between the peaking 12-year cycle and the bottoming 6-year cycle. Now that the 12-year cycle has done its damage, the newly formed 6-year up cycle is gaining in strength and becoming dominant. The 6-year Kress cycle is a powerful one and can't be underestimated. The previous 6 year cycle bottom ended the bear market in October 2002 and the bear market of 2008 has also been killed by the 6-year cycle bottom."

http://safehaven.com/article-12097.htm

It looks like I'm on my way for my second ever $100K week after my gains of today. Even though the Dow was down 99 points there was a 2 to 1 ratio on the upside on the NYSE. Yes, I'm surely glad I spent the money I did buying 432 individual DCA positions - it only gets better from this point forward.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Is it possible that the Dec. 1 decline in the major indices represented the last stage in the capitulation process?"

Anything is possible, but it is highly unlikely.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Didn't I see where you were in up to your waist? That shows confidence in the future.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Didn't I see where you were in up to your waist?

I'm just in for 2 or 3 days (it's keeping me from sleeping at night) then I'm back out. I just hope I'm out when the sky falls.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Chrysler folding up shop for 30 Days starting this weekend:worried:

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Head fake ultra short term rally....nothing to buy and hold......take those gains and run to the sidelines/cash out of everything except F and G fund....asia up yet again tonight; dollar lagging. That's what I did. See ya next month.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just hope I'm out when the sky falls.

Good one Greg. that one's priceless. Sleep well.

 

[budnipper1]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BULLISH NEWS
This article seemed appropriate for your thread, Birch.

S&P 500 Tops 50-Day Moving Average in Bullish Sign
The U.S. stock rally spurred yesterday by the Federal Reserve’s rate cut pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above its average level during the past 50 days, a signal to some traders that the advance will continue.

The benchmark index for American equities surged 5.1 percent to 913.18, exceeding its so-called 50-day moving average for the first time since Sept. 3. That’s the longest stretch since August 2002, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC. The figure was surpassed again today.

The S&P 500 spent most of the year trading for less than the moving average as it plunged 38 percent. The index jumped 20 percent since sinking to an 11-year low on Nov. 20, driven by President-elect Obama’s economic stimulus plan that may reach $600 billion and the Fed cutting its benchmark lending rate to a record low. Surpassing the 50-day average may be a sign investors are less concerned the S&P 500 will give up its gains.

“It’s a positive point, and short-term-trading people will use it as a buy signal,” said Mary Ann Bartels, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York and the second-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s 2008 survey. “It’s another sign that the market is improving.”

To some technical analysts, who study charts to make price predictions, surpassing a moving average suggests a majority of investors have turned bullish.

‘All Available Tools’
The S&P 500 jumped the most since Nov. 24 yesterday after the Fed lowered its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to a range of zero to 0.25 percent and said it will employ “all available tools” to revive economic growth. The closing level of 913.18 was 1.2 percent higher than the 50-day average of 902.37. Today, the index dropped to 904.42, which is 0.4 percent higher than the new 50-day moving average of 900.53.

Should the S&P 500 reach 1,007.51, its intraday peak on Nov. 4, it would probably surge another 19 percent to 1,200, Bartels said. A failure to break through that point would increase the likelihood of a plunge below 741.02, the 11-year low reached on Nov. 21, she added.

Among the companies in the S&P 500, 269 closed above their 50-day moving average yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. They included Google Inc., International Business Machines Corp. and Colgate-Palmolive Co., which had closed below on Dec. 15.

“It’s good,” Roger Volz, senior vice president at Hampton Securities Inc. in New York and a technical analyst since 1982, said of the S&P 500’s close above its 50-day moving average. “It’s a marking gauge for the condition of the charts and the probability we see a continuation in direction.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aIb6fkyn5enI&refer=home#

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Trouble,

The premium services are geared to offering suggestions on positioning the fund choices - I don't personally use any service because I'm basically an evangelical buy and holder with my TSP account. I swing trade a little but not much - that's why I'm in the -37% zone. I'm more interested in collecting more shares while we are in this current correction. My turn toward profitability will come when the cycle changes - I maintain a longer term perspective.

How you use your cash in an open account will depend on your strategy. Trading is not the same as investing. I invest and try to buy stocks that pay dividends that can be reinvested 4 times a year and leave the pricing to fate. I made $143K profit this past summer by selling some of my commodity stocks but most of those stocks had been held for over four years. I made those sales primarily to raise cash that would allow me to accumulate a toxic waste position in banks and other financial areas - that was my sacrifice to enter this arena with golden prices - the objective at the time was realizing I did not plan to make any gains for at least three years. If you want to trade and make short term profits the more shares you buy the greater the profit but the greater the risk. Now is an excellent time to be involved in either strategy - but remember the tax man will eventually cometh.

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Trouble,

The premium services are geared to offering suggestions on positioning the fund choices - I don't personally use any service because I'm basically an evangelical buy and holder with my TSP account. I swing trade a little but not much - that's why I'm in the -37% zone. I'm more interested in collecting more shares while we are in this current correction. My turn toward profitability will come when the cycle changes - I maintain a longer term perspective.

How you use your cash in an open account will depend on your strategy. Trading is not the same as investing. I invest and try to buy stocks that pay dividends that can be reinvested 4 times a year and leave the pricing to fate. I made $143K profit this past summer by selling some of my commodity stocks but most of those stocks had been held for over four years. I made those sales primarily to raise cash that would allow me to accumulate a toxic waste position in banks and other financial areas - that was my sacrifice to enter this arena with golden prices - the objective at the time was realizing I did not plan to make any gains for at least three years. If you want to trade and make short term profits the more shares you buy the greater the profit but the greater the risk. Now is an excellent time to be involved in either strategy - but remember the tax man will eventually cometh.

Birch,
I don't ever remember you mentioning anything about a Roth IRA. Do you have one? If not, why since it grows tax-free?

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'd guess he's not eligible for Roth due based on exceeding annual income limits.

Quote from: http://www.fairmark.com/rothira/roth101.htm

"And second, your modified adjusted gross income can't exceed certain limits. For the maximum contribution in 2008, the limits are $101,000 for single individuals and $159,000 for married couples filing joint returns. As your income grows above these levels, the amount you can contribute is reduced gradually and then completely eliminated."

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

wv-girl,

I started investing way long ago before the Roth IRA was invented. It just takes so long to build a deep enough base to hurt myself. I do plan to start shifting some money from my TSP to a Roth at some point in the near to distant future - when I can live on savings and reduce my tax obligations while shifting. I have to wait and see what the hell Obama has planned for me tax wise. I did open a Roth account for my daughter Cpt. Buzz and she owns several smelly toxic waste banks that will be dividend reinvesting forever. Did you know that you can pass on stocks to the next generation without a tax consequence - it's called a step up in basis.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Did you know that you can pass on stocks to the next generation without a tax consequence - it's called a step up in basis.

Do you have to be dead to pass it on, or just really old?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You can pass stock on at any time. As soon as it is delivered all the inherent built up gains start at zero for tax purposes. As the position appreciates the new owner would be responsible for the increased gains above the zero line providing the position was sold. The nice thing about individual stocks is that there is no pressure to sell. That's how big money is passed on to the next generation. The politicians have to provide some sweet accommodations so that people will assume some risks to help capitalism survive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Similar to many long term bull markets, the parabolic move that is now taking place in the bond market probably consists of panic buying of bonds. They missed the profitability part of long term secular bull markets and now they are buying into the tail end of a bubble climax."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Thursday 12/18/08 by Martin Goldberg

 

[amoeba]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Similar to many long term bull markets, the parabolic move that is now taking place in the bond market probably consists of panic buying of bonds. They missed the profitability part of long term secular bull markets and now they are buying into the tail end of a bubble climax."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Thursday 12/18/08 by Martin Goldberg

Hope you don't mind me making money during this panic increase in bonds while stock funds sink like a lead duck.:laugh: