Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bill Miller says the bottom has been reached - well duh? I say buy'em now beacuse they will only cost more tomorrow: another 6 for a grand total around this bottom of 416. I just bought: AF, T, PXP, CNH, CTX, AME.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman is way out of my current league but I appreciate hearing from him - a look inside the bigger money plays. If I can make a $12K day today I'll be even on the week ready for the blow that may come tomorrow. I did make 6 more purchases this morning now for a total of 422 around this bottom. I just doubled up on my C purchase at $8.06 and also bought: BW, GE, NL, LTD, PHM. Today may give us an upward explosion - perhaps.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

You will know you have relief when our members start to howl about inflation again. We now have lower growth in labor costs as the job market weakens. Costs per unit of labor rose 1.4% in the third quarter from a year earlier, below the previous estimate of 2.3%. With the labor market weakening to the lowest level since 1974, this driver of inflation is likely to be even weaker over the next year or two. Right now the baying is quiet.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I'm building up cash in my brand-new first-time ever e-brokerage account, doing some practice trading. It's almost time to try my hand at individual stock-picking. You bought DLX and LTD lately, I've been looking at them. I know why I'm looking at them, why did you? besides the dividend factor and P/E, that is....? Any other reasons you liked them at this point, that you'd be willing to share?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm now buying my individual stocks for the economic recovery that is in front of us - even if that is three years from now. You might look at three stocks that got slammed yesterday - NFX, FCX, PXP. Both LTD and DLX are economically sensitive to the consumer and this gloom and doom will turn and I'm trying to be prepared building my base. A rebound could come with a vengence out of the blue. With your new account you have to decide if you are going to be an investor or a trader - good luck in any direction you take.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm now buying my individual stocks for the economic recovery that is in front of us - even if that is three years from now. You might look at three stocks that got slammed yesterday - NFX, FCX, PXP. Both LTD and DLX are economically sensitive to the consumer and this gloom and doom will turn and I'm trying to be prepared building my base. A rebound could come with a vengence out of the blue. With your new account you have to decide if you are going to be an investor or a trader - good luck in any direction you take.
Click to expand...

You liking any railroads?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, I like the rails and train support companies. I own CSX, WAB, TRN, GWR and GE . I also own Koppers Holdings which is involved in train rail ties.
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've also been looking at GE and FCX. Something I read yesterday about copper market spooked me away from getting too excited yet about FCX, but I'll be watching awhile longer.

I'm thinking this one will be an investor account focused on dividend stocks. For now, I'm just getting used to the logistics of using the site. When I think I understand what happens when I punch buttons, it may finally be time to get braver. Cash amount still way too tiny to be a trading account. See, you do have some influence on me. :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

(BNI) Burlington Nothern Santa Fe Corp is a wee expensive even for my taste.

Alevin, I believe I had six dividends hit my account yesterday so I got lucky on my dividend reinvestments - but I got many more to go this month. Once you've been doing it for awhile they can take pages when reporting - very nice to look at. So even when I'm resting my dividends are always working hard every three months - even when I go on vacation. It would be nice if Obama reduces the capital gains tax on dividends that are reinvested to help crying capitalism. Uncle did this with utility stocks back in the late 1970s. My question is will FCX run back to $170 - I guess it all depends on the Chinese and they did recently suspend their dividend, but at $16 it's golden. I'm also wondering if MOS will ever get back to $170 also.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, a person just cannot trade this market with the noon IFT deadline. Your bulls are being amazing today! :blink:

Lady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

alevin said:
I've also been looking at GE and FCX. Something I read yesterday about copper market spooked me away from getting too excited yet about FCX, but I'll be watching awhile longer.

I'm thinking this one will be an investor account focused on dividend stocks. For now, I'm just getting used to the logistics of using the site. When I think I understand what happens when I punch buttons, it may finally be time to get braver. Cash amount still way too tiny to be a trading account. See, you do have some influence on me. :)
Click to expand...

I've got GE in our ROTH's, plus PCU, Southern Copper, and BHP, for mineral stocks. They are both down, but they'll come roaring back. I considered FCX also, but settled on PCU, which I consider my one spec stock in my portfolio. I had BHP last year and sold it for $94, now I'm buying it back again and they both have decent divvies, though with FCX stopping theirs, I expect any day to see PCU to do the same. I think BHP's divvie will be ok. That's all I buy for our ROTH's is divvy payers and just let them auto re-invest like Birch, though I'm nowhere near the size of the Tree. I also have T, BP, KMR, DUK, JNJ, UTX,PG, and NUE. Eleven is enough for me to keep track of right now, plus I can add to them quicker, soI can increase the free shares annually and a couple quarterly from Divvies. Birch helped me get started buying my own just over 2 years ago.

With only 2 IFT's per month, our ROTH's is really what make's it worthwhile to keep studying everything.



Just my $.02 and Good Luck, :D
CB
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I need to clear $48K today to be even on the week - so if the train wants to force me to run harder and the bulls want to trample my back that's the way it is. I'll be chasing 'em come Monday to buy a few more darling wanton wall flowers. 300 points today is real.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Darn we backed off the 300 to close up 259 - we'll get the 300 points on Monday.

Country Boy,

Birds are really good at picking individual stocks - simply place the stocks tables at the bottom of their cage and presto - they do all the selections. No paper work necessary on the Roth - isn't that great.

TSP elective deferral limit goes up to $22,000 in 2009 for me - I'll never get to quit. Those serving in a tax-free combat zone are allowed up to $49,000 in annual contributions for 2009.

The charts point to a retest of the Nov. 30th high of 897.50, a break above which should trigger a move that projects to 940.60. A break of 1008.50 certifies the November 20th low as the absolute low. Time to get on the train - it's leaving the station.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
The charts point to a retest of the Nov. 30th high of 897.50, a break above which should trigger a move that projects to 940.60. A break of 1008.50 certifies the November 20th low as the absolute low. Time to get on the train - it's leaving the station.
Click to expand...

The charts point to a week and a-half of nearly all down days with a retest of 741 of just a couple of weeks ago.

It's time to cut your losses and get out while you still can.

seasonality_december.gif
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The S&P500 was down another 2.0 % for the week. Hold on it your hat on the way down.

rollercoaster1.jpg
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

This far into the bear market hell would have to freeze over before I'll even contemplate getting out - this is golden bull tinky time. I've still got over $165K to spend and golden prices are what I'm interested in acquiring, but I appreciate the warning. It's now time to get on the train while there are still seats available.

"In factoring in the 1974-73 recession, the Dow declined 45.1% in the 1973-74 bear market, the worst bear market since 1929-32 crash, and the next bull market began when fear and despair were at their most extreme. The Dow was recently down 46.6% at its November low, the S&P 500 down 52.9%. And we're all aware of the level of fear and despair. Time to buy?"

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/harding/2008/1205.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

A nice quote from Steve Kaplan - "Right now we have the most favorable investing scenario since at least 1990. We will probably enjoy the biggest short term percentage rally from the November 21st bottom since 1932-1933. You therefore owe it to yourself to capitalize upon this situation as thoroughly as possible, rather than being satisfied with what would normally be a respectable profit."
 
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