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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From the FOMC - "additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings." Rates will most likely be lowered again at the Dec. 16th meeting - that will put a lot of pressure on fixed income investments making equities look more glamorous. "...more aggressive easing" in interesy rates "should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome."
The S&P 500 has now erased 100% of the bull market from 2002 to 2007. There was a 101% gain in five years and a 51% drop in just over a year. The fundamentals of the world aren't changing as fast as these prices are. Stocks are a claim to a very long term stream of future cash flows. ibid John Hussman.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
It was an excellent move Birch. It may go down another 10 to 15% before it's all through and then possibly crawl around for 6 months before it really goes anywhere.
BUT BUYING - on a Huge sell off day when the total loss is already at 50% is the greatest guarantee imaginable that you will be richly rewarded down the line.
anthony
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 10
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm perfectly okay with the idea of "crawling around for 6 months." I've exhausted most of my resources for new investing now. But, if prices float in a comparable range for a while, it means you don't have to obsessed with catching a falling knife in a very short reaction time period. Six months of relatively flat prices means you can be patient and pick the right stocks whenever you have resources available to do so.
I have a group of 20 or so stocks that I've targeted for 2009 money and would not mind a bit if I could keep picking them up at prices close to what we're seeing.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I could be wrong - but all the indicators and the overwhelming reports very much support this outlook.
For me - the main thing it does is give "a time of rest". I've been so conditioned to "timing a rally" it has been a HARD HABIT TO BREAK. But next week when we have another day or two of 8% Gains - I can relax more and more knowing 'Volitility' will dominate as the downward trend continues. Equally important I don't have to be apprehensive about getting in too soon.
Congrats! on the October High TSP Gains.
ATCJeff
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'm still busy buying this bottom - just finished 12 stock buys for a total now of 334. I'll be buying this puppy all the way back to the top even if it takes another five years. According to Vickers Weekly Insider newsletter - "from a purely insider - trading perspective, what we're seeing is extremely bullish." I believe this market may rebound as quickly as it came down so I'm trying to be positioned in my portfolio to benefit when the next bull move comes and it always does.
ATCJeff
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Let's hope is doesn't take 5 years. I see the rebound starting in full force by spring 2010!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
A quote from Michael Lewis from his latest book "Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity." "We have entered a period of risk aversion unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime. Investors will be too wary for a while. You'll read stories about prople who got rich betting against subprime mortgages and then about people who combed through the wreckage and found bargains. The next rich wave will be those who figure out where the value is. As for the average American investor, he'll be a deer in the headlights for years. It will be a while until greed gets comfortable again."
Investors are now pricing in a rate cut of a full percentage point Dec. 4th as a means of stimulating the flagging U.K. economy.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I purchased another 8 stocks today as a DCAing strategy and that now makes 342 buys around this stinky bottom - but prices sure are golden. If the SPX were to finish the year where it was last Thursday, it would mark an annual decline of 48.8%, the worst annual percentage drop in its 80 year history. In all, the index is down 52% from its record finish of just over one year ago. That means that the SPX has fallen more in the current bear market than it did in the horrendous bear market from 2000-2002, when it fell 49%. The Dow is off 47% from last year's record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938, when it fell 49%. It is down 43% for the year so far. If it doesn't improve, that would make this the second-worst yearly pullback since it was launched in 1896. The worst was 1931, when it fell 53%. Still, no lilly pad for me my friends - I'm handling things just fine.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The good news is that investors withdrew $40 billion from hedge funds last month amid the stock market's crushing declines. Coupled with $115 billion in losses, the industry's assets fell by the biggest one-month amount on record, according to Hedge Fund Research. Good for them is what I say. The number of funds is expected to be nearly halved to around 5,000 before the dust settles. These goofs are responsible for our crash like event in the markets so I don't feel any empathy for them.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Analysts at their least bullish levels ever - only 36% of all ratings are currently buys."
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 46
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Don't stocks drop in price by the amount of the dividend after it is paid?
Gumby
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 23
Last edited:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I just purchased another 12 stocks for my portfolio - that makes a total of 354 during this bottom process. I just can't seem to give up those golden prices because I keep thinking about the glorious future. If this rally will hold up this afternoon I may go back into the market and purchase a few more turkeys for the fold. I cannot be bearish at a moment like this even though there may be more pain in my future. I've noticed that there are several bullish divergent structures permeating technical analysis. I'm a buyer and building my base for the future. The fundamentals of the world aren't changing as fast as these prices are.Similar threads
