Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

I don't intentionally pick a stock based on its dividend - but the value approach I use usually have a good dividend payout. I try and plan my stock purchases, especially for a new position, that goes out at least 3 years. I'm currently buying GT (Goodyear) and they don't even pay a dividend at this time - but I've been into GT several times over the years with a good profit record. My daughter rode it one time from $19 to $105 and then caught a 2 for 1 stock split. GT is now selling for $5.41 a share and nobody in their right mind wants to own it except me. That's the value play. The same with a stock like ARM (Arvin Meritor) selling for $3.80 and yielding 10.5% - who will ever hold onto their car and buy an autopart to fix it again. Who wants to own PCX (Patriot Coal) with Obama on the horizon - along with BTU and CNX - well I do because I'm not afraid of any policy he may develope. The available golden pricing will not come this way again for many years - if we are not at the bottom yet the pricing will only get better. My friends, now is the time to stock up and prime that retirement strategy.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I don't intentionally pick a stock based on its dividend - but the value approach I use usually have a good dividend payout. I try and plan my stock purchases, especially for a new position, that goes out at least 3 years. I'm currently buying GT (Goodyear) and they don't even pay a dividend at this time - but I've been into GT several times over the years with a good profit record. My daughter rode it one time from $19 to $105 and then caught a 2 for 1 stock split. GT is now selling for $5.41 a share and nobody in their right mind wants to own it except me......
Click to expand...
Ok, Birch, remember you said it and nobody else.:laugh:

And I'm with you my friend.....Even with Electric cars, they'll still need tires!:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I did manage to do another ten purchases today now for a total of 322 hits around this bottom. Deeper and deeper is the way to go since I am a NAUI certified diver.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

So money appears today to be in flight towards the bond market - I could care less. The mother of all buying opportunities has arrived. I regard myself as an average investor and inorder for someone to play my game you must be able to suffer through further mark to market losses and ignore short term volatility in the stock market. You must have money to invest so that you can purchase assets the suddenly risk averse are trying to unload. I'm cashing in CD money to purchase higher yielding assets. The average person must end up holding the stocks that are out there. I have counted up 51 stocks that will be paying dividends in the month of December - they're are probably more that I haven't noticed. But dividend reinvestment is the way to grow value along this bottom. Let panic rule supreme and give me the golden prices that are so evident. Besides, intelligent investors act out of patience and courage, not panic.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
So money appears today to be in flight towards the bond market - I could care less. The mother of all buying opportunities has arrived. I regard myself as an average investor and inorder for someone to play my game you must be able to suffer through further mark to market losses and ignore short term volatility in the stock market. You must have money to invest so that you can purchase assets the suddenly risk averse are trying to unload. I'm cashing in CD money to purchase higher yielding assets. The average person must end up holding the stocks that are out there. I have counted up 51 stocks that will be paying dividends in the month of December - they're are probably more that I haven't noticed. But dividend reinvestment is the way to grow value along this bottom. Let panic rule supreme and give me the golden prices that are so evident. Besides, intelligent investors act out of patience and courage, not panic.
Click to expand...

TSP guru - well what do you know - what the hell is a guru anyway? I gonna have to google that one. Hell I might even have to Yahoo it. To bad about our boy Jerry Yang - it's Yang right? :D

Step up to the plate and pick up 50k shares of GM. No guts no glory. FOMC minutes out in any minute, LOL.

Time to drop the pompoms and get in the game. ;)

cayman
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Cayman,

If only I had your depth of cash I would buy myself blind. Cyclical bulls are born deep in despair when most investors and speculators have given up hope of stocks ever rising again. It sure feels like that recently. I'm in survival mode but will not cut and run. As far as the guru status goes I think it is an albatross someone hung around my neck - most on this board know I'm not a favorite. I just keep moving forward. By buying aggressively late in bears when people are disgusted with stocks I plan to collect all the golden prices - that's all I can do.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

An attempt at levity on yet another depressing day:

The election is over. The voting is done.
My guy lost. Your guy won.
But we're still friends, so let this pass.
I'll kiss my elephant. You kiss your ass.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yup, thanks. Let's make it lower tomorrow, please. I've been upset that I missed the prices from the early 90's.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

dell said:
An attempt at levity on yet another depressing day:

The election is over. The voting is done.
My guy lost. Your guy won.
But we're still friends, so let this pass.
I'll kiss my elephant. You kiss your ass.
Click to expand...

:D:D:nuts::nuts:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

I'm teetering on buying some stock, but can't decide.

What do you think.

Alny (already have this - bought at $12)

Anik

RNT

ABCB

SO

AFLA

VZ
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

GGal.

If you can afford it I'd take a position in each one depending on any fee you may have to pay. It would be wise to DCA on the way down just incase the bottom is not here yet. I own the SO and have for many years and just keep reinvesting their dividends. Now is the time to ignore the gloom and doom and catch these golden prices - if you are early you can absorb a little pain and double down again at a later date.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

So you actually like them all, none are your favorite?

Thank you
GGAL
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch this is a daytraders dream with the VIX where it is. I only could catch ABK half way up today - that what happens when you go to the bathroom. That thing was blinking on my screen in big green lights but I still got a 39% pop in about half an hour - got to love it - I think it is up about 80% now - in too late out too early. Bought GM yesterday early and dumped that in about an hour. I have my high risk account which YTD is killing my 80% conservative allocated funds (i.e. GO munis) in returns but I'm playing with the real high risk crap with some tight stops etc. but so far more wins than losses so can't complain. I can live with 15k pop on GM garbage in an hour of "work" - even made a couple of buck on AIG - I can't believe some of this garbage is still in business - just take a look at a couple of balance sheets if you want to call them that.

I am not touching the indices except on some shorts SDS etc. but caught about half the flip on that 900 turn around day without getting burned too bad. Very rarely in the SPY's or QQQQ's unless on a short as of lately. You have to love this trading range of 7800 to 9800 making your money in either direction.

Whoever said to buy and hold - your boy "Huey Long - hey I want everyones account down 40% YTD" - what a horses' ass - 2 trades a month right? That's working out real well - although it is too tough to play around with funds when the market flips around 5 times a day but you can still play the trend unfortunately most of the time it's down which really sucks for the 401K's now 201K's hopefully not too become 101K's - only etf's at best for me - that's it. :rolleyes:


cayman
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, would you PLEASE call somebody and tell them you've had enough pain?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today smells like panic capitulation with big money moving into the bonds with no yields. I'm still holding my base and am sending the wife to the bank to get more money so that we can participate further - Citigroup is a perfect buy for a classic bottom.

"The fact is that we've observed similar panics throughout market history. This decline has been deeper and more rapid than most, but that is largely a reflection of the rich valuation and overbought condition that characterized the market in 2007. But this is important - even if stock prices were to fall further, it would not be because of earnings losses that would permanently impair the fundamental value of U.S. companies.

We can be virtually certain that stocks would experience enormous rallies, not simply continous decline...similar panics have typically been associated with washed-out market lows, and in any event, should further reinforce that this decline is not particularly uncharted."

http://safehaven.com/article-11861.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Very insightful comments and I think right on. I believe a year from now this current oportunity to get into the market at these prices will have pasted and may not be seen again for long time. The best to you and yours and thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience. HH
 
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