Birchtree's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The problem is you did not see this calamity coming.

LOL! Talk about and understatement.

See my latest signature.

 

[poolman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

LOL! Talk about and understatement.

See my latest signature.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Why are the girls pickin on me. The RSI on a monthly Dow is at 18. It was below 24 only 10 times over the last 90 years. The averaqge return one year later was 55%. Almost all of them were at the bottoms. I'm a buyer this morning.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just completed 20 individual stock purchases and it feels good at these lows especially with the dividend yields. That's now 144 buys around this potential bottom.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here are a few facts regarding capitulation - from Jason Zweig TWSJ 10/25.

"In truth, bear markets often end not in a crescendo of selling but a cloud of indifference. Market lows aren't necessarily marked by tidal waves of frantic selling: just as frequently, stocks bottom out in a dull and lonely atmosphere as trading dries up and most investors no longer even care. Bear markets often end not in capitulation but stupefaction.

For example, take Dec. 6, 1974, a day that will long live in market infamy. The Dow closed at 577.60, down 45% from its level in January 1973. Total trading volume was a tepid 15.5 million shares; a few days earlier, it had totaled only 7.4 million, tying the lowest level in more than three years. Hooper, one of the nation's leading security analysts, told TWSJ that day that the market was just waiting the bad times out. Far from throwing in the towel, most investors weren't even at ringside.

The most interesting thing about the 1974 market bottom was its dullness. It wasn't a crash, it was a mudslide. You came in, watched the market go down a few points and went home. Thge next day you went through the same thing all over again. And then, without a moment's warning, the bull woke up and took off. By Jan. 6, 1975, the market had shot up 10%, and a year after that the Dow had risen 54% from its 1974 low.

In short, bear markets sometimes end with a bang, sometimes with a whimper. What we can be quite certain of, however, is that stock markets around the world are already on sale. If you have cash to spare, put some to work. If you don't, save up until you do. But don't kid yourself into thinking that you will ever get a clear signal out of such an unclear indicator." One more reason I'm a buyer today.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here are a few facts regarding capitulation - from Jason Zweig TWSJ 10/25.

"In truth, bear markets often end not in a crescendo of selling but a cloud of indifference. Market lows aren't necessarily marked by tidal waves of frantic selling: just as frequently, stocks bottom out in a dull and lonely atmosphere as trading dries up and most investors no longer even care. Bear markets often end not in capitulation but stupefaction.

For example, take Dec. 6, 1974, a day that will long live in market infamy. The Dow closed at 577.60, down 45% from its level in January 1973. Total trading volume was a tepid 15.5 million shares; a few days earlier, it had totaled only 7.4 million, tying the lowest level in more than three years. Hooper, one of the nation's leading security analysts, told TWSJ that day that the market was just waiting the bad times out. Far from throwing in the towel, most investors weren't even at ringside.

The most interesting thing about the 1974 market bottom was its dullness. It wasn't a crash, it was a mudslide. You came in, watched the market go down a few points and went home. Thge next day you went through the same thing all over again. And then, without a moment's warning, the bull woke up and took off. By Jan. 6, 1975, the market had shot up 10%, and a year after that the Dow had risen 54% from its 1974 low.

In short, bear markets sometimes end with a bang, sometimes with a whimper. What we can be quite certain of, however, is that stock markets around the world are already on sale. If you have cash to spare, put some to work. If you don't, save up until you do. But don't kid yourself into thinking that you will ever get a clear signal out of such an unclear indicator." One more reason I'm a buyer today.

Very good points to keep in mind. I still think when all is said and done, we will be down at least 66% from the top.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey, not all of the grrls are picking on you. I know very well it's harder when you get nearer to the retirement. Just finished a huge arguement with a co-worker who wants to retire soon and wants to pull out NOW NOW NOW and doesn't want to hear "Jump off now after riding it down and you'll definately tie in that 30%+ loss you are talking about!" If you are getting ridden for having to change your plans, or broken crystal balls, it's kinda silly: 20/20 hindsight only works if your head's on backwards.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was only kidding about the girls (boys) picking on me. I'm trying to look past the gloom for intelligent buying opportunities. Cash levels in money funds as a percent of total value U.S. stocks equals a record high over 27%. This level is higher than the start of any bull market of the past 30 years. We have recently experienced an acceleration into a verticle descent - what happens when the reverse turn comes. The next markt phase is going to be the greatest speculative stock market explosion the world has ever seen and I'll be there patiently waiting like I have always done. Cash, cash, and more cash - investor types are choking on it. I'm spending mine right now. Once this next phase of the bull market starts cranking up, this money will want to be in stocks - possibly the next great bubble.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just bought another 8 wall flowers but now I'm having to chase them dullards - but it sure is a lovely day here in North Florida and perfect for accumulation - it makes me feel good. My list is so long but this weather is glorious. The day reminds me of my New Hampshire summers and the up coming Indian Summer.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just finished buying another 20 wall flowers having to chase them on the upside - but that's fine. That's 172 purchases so far around this potential bottom. If we drop tomorrow I'll be in again buying, buying - hurting myself but the yields certainly are the best.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, this is frustrating as hell. The few drops of blood left in the market
says its in the streets already. Capitulation has been a long and drawn out
process. Unlike the massive drop that some experts say must happen. What
words can you give me, to stop this feeling of foolishness I have. Is the
coil ever going to give ? Geeeez, the gun is loaded and the trigger won't
take much more pressure before the damn thing goes off. "Help me Obee
Won, Your My Only Hope" {Star Wars Reference}.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

squalebear,

Patience is virtuous. Look at what the short squeeze did to Volkswagon today. There are billions (16 - 18) short shares in our market - they will eventually be forced to cover and when they do.... I just bought another six positions for a total of 178 - if I'm wrong the pain will continue, but if I'm right I will really, really be right. And while I wait I pull dividends.

 

[turbo23dog]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm sweating too and holding on in L2020 for the hoped for bounce that may or may not come with the election. I"m on an 8 year time horizon and under no pressure to do anything, especially something panic driven. So I'm DCA (buy and hold) for now folllowing Birchy's breadcrumb trail... Big question for me will be what to do if we do get a bounce.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

squalebear,

Patience is virtuous. Look at what the short squeeze did to Volkswagon today. There are billions (16 - 18) short shares in our market - they will eventually be forced to cover and when they do.... I just bought another six positions for a total of 178 - if I'm wrong the pain will continue, but if I'm right I will really, really be right. And while I wait I pull dividends.

Wish I got some dividends in the TSP. But I want to be Really, Really,
Really Right too. I did another <1% IFT today and I'll let go of only a
few shares of (C) and gain more shares in (S) as a result. If this thing
spring loads upward, the (S) will take the helm and hopefully it will fly
at Warp Speed while taking the lead as history has shown.
Thanks for the response.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

One of my primary goals since infancy has been to accumulate 40,000 shares of the C fund and prices in the $10 range really help that endeavor. These prices are a golden opportunity for new employees and my silver linning is I will stay employed a little longer to get these prices - is that greed or is that being pragmatic. There will be some selling and jumping around in any rallies but I'm sitting still. Been wrong for so long but staying strong.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

One of my primary goals since infancy has been to accumulate 40,000 shares of the C fund and prices in the $10 range really help that endeavor. These prices are a golden opportunity for new employees.

Birch,
There is no doubt that the $10 price range is fantastic. New employees can only buy low. But in hindsight I'd have 40% more than I do if I'd stayed in safety and bought now.

In the end we'll come out ahead - I just wish the losses were better avoided. Most of us blame the 2 IFT restriction - but overwhelmingly it is that endless persuit in 'Market Timing' and that is what ultimately keeps you ahead of the pack.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What will this last hour bring today - a little nitro would help. The best opportunities will come when people are most fearful and pessimistic. It will never feel comfortable to invest after a 42% decline. I'm done buying for today but I'll be back in the market tomorrow regardless of the action - got to burn off this cash.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

One of my primary goals since infancy has been to accumulate 40,000 shares of the C fund and prices in the $10 range really help that endeavor. These prices are a golden opportunity for new employees and my silver linning is I will stay employed a little longer to get these prices - is that greed or is that being pragmatic. There will be some selling and jumping around in any rallies but I'm sitting still. Been wrong for so long but staying strong.

:nuts:
Birch, Did you get your allowance in shares of companies? Why do I picture you on a phone with a broker in the 3rd grade? haha:laugh:

Sorry Birch, you made me almost shoot coffee through my nose with that one!!!:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything and I do mean everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. To me, the ability to step back and use the market to achieve one's goals, rather than trying to follow and beat the market's every move, is key to long term success in investing. Besides the value of your portfolio at any given moment is irrelevant if you have a long term perspective. As we now recognize the biggest up day in history can come at any time. Tomorrow possibly could be historic if the Fed decides to cut rates - I'll be buying even if I have to chase. Actually buying on the chase is the easier way to buy.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

:nuts:
Birch, Did you get your allowance in shares of companies? Why do I picture you on a phone with a broker in the 3rd grade? haha:laugh:

Sorry Birch, you made me almost shoot coffee through my nose with that one!!!:laugh:

hahaha...like that Etrade commercial with the infant, "Did you see that, I just bought stock"....baaarff..."whoa".