Birchtree's Account Talk

[INVSTSMRT78]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks guys! I currently vest 10% of my pay as a GS-12 in the Balt/Wash region into my TSP. Unfortunately, the Roth is not an option, at least I don't think it is, because they cap at $150k for income. My wife and I jointly make over this. We do have a Smith Barney account though that she contributes to. I am currently 100% in G, but have moved back and fourth between the C, S, and I funds over the past year. I have approximately 26yrs (yep, I'm a young buck) left until I hit my 30yr service mark. Although I am sure I will work long after that. So, my gut says, take a risk, play the market! Place a majority into the C, and S funds, and let her ride. Thoughts?

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks guys! I currently vest 10% of my pay as a GS-12 in the Balt/Wash region into my TSP. Unfortunately, the Roth is not an option, at least I don't think it is, because they cap at $150k for income. My wife and I jointly make over this. We do have a Smith Barney account though that she contributes to. I am currently 100% in G, but have moved back and fourth between the C, S, and I funds over the past year. I have approximately 26yrs (yep, I'm a young buck) left until I hit my 30yr service mark. Although I am sure I will work long after that. So, my gut says, take a risk, play the market! Place a majority into the C, and S funds, and let her ride. Thoughts?

First I'm from Baltimore, MD and know many in Rockville, MD and many that work in Washington - so I see us as having some common threads. 10% is good - very good - but if you can go higher I would. You should have a strong and enduring marriage working jointly with your wife and I ADMIRE YOU FOR THAT. 26 years is Excellent and being in G Fund means you're watching and not simply leaving all your money in ultra conservative. Since the Markets have gone below 30% (which is wonderful) - I say your gut is right. Pouring money into C and S Funds (and I Fund) will bring decent rewards.

The KEY is long term. Many focus on the day to day and week to week stuff - but think LONG TERM and you will have a fortune.

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Do you own any dry bulk shippers?

I picked up a few hundred shares of Genco (GNK) at $18. Its paying out a 24% dividend. has a whopping 3 ttm P/E! Has $9 cash per share. Its beaten down from $80 just a couple months ago. I like the upside and the dividend payout assuming it continues to pay it out.

Also love these Alternative fuel plays....Boone Pickens is loading up on Chesapeake and hes an Oil tycoon.

FSYS under $25, TAN under $13 and WPRT under $4...These are all buy and keepers IMO

In Biotech I bought 2k shares of Arena Pharma (ARNA) from $3-4 per share. Lots of great drugs in its pipeline. One in stage 3 FDA. It has a strategic alliance with Merck to assure long term success. Insiders are buying!

Lots of great long term buys here. Im a trader but these are my buy and holds.

Hey PhillyFed,

Thanks for the insight, very nice. I'm a bit into EXM, that was trading around $60 6 months ago, now it's at $12. I bought in around 18 - it's a long term hold for me.

On the subject of individual stocks, I think a cool thread to start (say over in the Individual Stocks thread) would be one where we post our trades and holdings. Obviously some people hold a lot of different stocks & may not want to take the time, but if people would update their holdings & returns (not actual $$ amounts but %), it would be cool. For example, bought XYZ at 3.47 on 6/17/08 and sold at 6.23 on 10/13/08. Any thoughts?

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anyone actually believe retail sales were going up ???

Please anyone who is shocked in the media about these retail sales should be fired for being STUPID but I forgot this is the same media who thinks Obama will be a good President and is a good person.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

love-to-bike,

I bought some EXM the other day at $13.87 primarily for the income that will be reinvested.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

What goes DOWN ba ba ba bummm

Must go UP ba ba ba bummmm

Spinning wheels got to go round...

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

First I'm from Baltimore, MD and know many in Rockville, MD and many that work in Washington - so I see us as having some common threads. 10% is good - very good - but if you can go higher I would. You should have a strong and enduring marriage working jointly with your wife and I ADMIRE YOU FOR THAT. 26 years is Excellent and being in G Fund means you're watching and not simply leaving all your money in ultra conservative. Since the Markets have gone below 30% (which is wonderful) - I say your gut is right. Pouring money into C and S Funds (and I Fund) will bring decent rewards.

The KEY is long term. Many focus on the day to day and week to week stuff - but think LONG TERM and you will have a fortune.

Thanks for the feedback! I usually fluxuate between 5% to 15% of my pay; depending on what we have going on outside of TSP. We are definately in it for the long haul.

 

[phillyfed]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey PhillyFed,

Thanks for the insight, very nice. I'm a bit into EXM, that was trading around $60 6 months ago, now it's at $12. I bought in around 18 - it's a long term hold for me.

On the subject of individual stocks, I think a cool thread to start (say over in the Individual Stocks thread) would be one where we post our trades and holdings. Obviously some people hold a lot of different stocks & may not want to take the time, but if people would update their holdings & returns (not actual $$ amounts but %), it would be cool. For example, bought XYZ at 3.47 on 6/17/08 and sold at 6.23 on 10/13/08. Any thoughts?

Lets do it. Get some money ready. We are testing the lows again.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm cherry picking them this morning - we'll see if the hedge funds blow me out again. I got five nice treats already - plan at least ten more before the day ends.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I bought 13 stocks today and how fortunate they all closed higher than the original purchase price - honestly that doesn't happen very often. Intelligent investors act out of patience and courage, not panic. I have refused to sell anything during this current drop but have been adding wall flowers to my portfolio. Just as bear markets typically end with more severe woe like a sell off into Dow 7882, bull markets typically begin with a bigger bang. In 2002, at the very start of the bull market, the Dow rose 7.7% in two days. Well Monday we did 11% in one day. If this is not a new bull market but rather a resumption of the tried and true mega trend secular bull market from 1982 then what. This last 6,000 points down has only been a correction - no bear market. We may have a big V to take us all the way back to the October 9th, 07 highs and beyond. There is just so much cash sitting on the sidelines - and when it finally moves when a good portion of the rally has ended we will soar even higher. Gee, don't forget our friends the shorts.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch my brain is fried and I'm finally ready to go home.


For the life of me I can not remember who told me this but:

WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO - THEY SOLD EVERYTHING (STOCKS AND FUNDS) TO GET WHAT MONEY THEY COULD.

When - now get this - They did not need the Money but sold out of FEAR

MAN!! Of course I thought of you immediately and blurted out that was the worst possible move they could have done :embarrest:


So what is your recommendation my Rock Solid Brother??

Wait until you're at the very bottom and sell at the greatest loss??

or should you hold on?

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch my brain is fried and I'm finally ready to go home.


For the life of me I can not remember who told me this but:

WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO - THEY SOLD EVERYTHING (STOCKS AND FUNDS) TO GET WHAT MONEY THEY COULD.

When - now get this - They did not need the Money but sold out of FEAR

MAN!! Of course I thought of you immediately and blurted out that was the worst possible move they could have done


So what is your recommendation my Rock Solid Brother??

Wait until you're at the very bottom and sell at the greatest loss??

or should you hold on?

Steady,

If I may be so bold, they should dump it back in to the accounts they had it in and hold on. I can't imagine the tax ramifications they are facing....I have a friend, 10 years my senior, ride the '87 slide. He showed me the stocks that lost him 60% that day.

Those stocks 20 years later made it possible to retire 7 years early.

Circles in the economy occur.

I have 2 Roth IRAs, 2 401Ks for me and my wife. (protected to securities 1 Jan 08)
My TSP (protected 1 July 08)
Muni bonds (unprotected )
and a few stocks (unprotected )
and a FOREX account

Total for year % wise is +12%

Instead of cutting the rope, they should have tied a knot in it, ride it back up!

My $0.02

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have not sold the first stock on the decline - instead I'm buying dividend payers that will produce income for eternity. For the next several years all these dividends will be reinvested to buy more shares - it becomes a self feeding system. I would not be surprised to see the economy not suffer as much as the consensus anticipates with only a mild recession and as soon as the market gets a wiff of that we may have a big V turnaround - it can happen at any moment so you just have to stay in the game and exposed to equities. I keep thinking about all the consolidations and buy outs the market is going to experience and how many of my wall flowerrs will get adopted.

 

[Wolverine]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well Birch, I'm going your route a bit at a time.

Was out before all this started last month.

Went back in yesterday on the big downside again.

Picked up about 10% more shares with this.

I'll play a little bit here and a little bit there, and see what goes.

What I put in yesterday, will stay there now.

I could possibly, if I do it right or call it right, LOL pick up near the 40% mark of added shares.

We shall see. Thanks again, and Thanks To All.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ah, the putrid smell of Donkey dung. We all remember the caustic remarks made against Indy Mac by Sen. Schumer that caused a depositor run on the bank and eventual failure. It now appears that several heavy Donkey money contributors were inside the bank looking at assets to acquire. Once the bank failed those assets were a lot cheaper. Blame Oaktree Capital Mamagement, Ares Capital Management and Fortress Investment Group - all generous donors to Sen. Schumer. What a creep this guy is.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's been almost 21 years since the current level of fear (VIX 81.5) prevailed in U.S. financial markets - that was right after the 1987 crash when stocks plummeted 23% in one day. So many sentiment indicators are screamingly bullish because investors are so frightened. Because the stock market is a discounting mechanism and most of the current and future economic woes are already reflected in stock prices. Indeed, the stock market generally turns up about six months before the economy does. Be prepared for rat-a-tat-tat. Corporate insiders are still bullish and buying their company stock, as a matter of fact, they've been buying all through 2008 just like I have. They are as bullish now as they were at the July lows. Prior to the current lows, the last time corporate insiders were this bullish was near the end of the 2000-2002 bear market. My sagacity in undulating.

The economic slowdown and declining commodity prices have eased the nation's consumer inflation rate, which surged to 5.6% over the summer and now is 4.6%. Annual inflation in the U.S. is likely to turn negative for at least several months next year on declining energy and food prices. The risk of deflation was among the factors leading the Fed to keep interest rates at only 1% earlier this decade. The Fed rate is now 1.5% but I suspect it will be lowerr in coming months. How long they leave rates lowerr will be the question. I knew Bernanke was trying to kill the housing industry increasing the Fed funds rate 17 times. Where will the next bubble pop up - SPX type stocks?

The most controversial move in the TARP so far is an obscure IRS ruling that gives banks the unfettered ability to use the tax losses of banks they acquired. I've seen this strategy used by corporations buying insurance companies. The new tax benefit applies to already completed bank deals done in the past three years, and probably or possibly even older ones.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This is the Farm

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This is the Farm

Gorgeous!!!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gorgeous!!!

Thank you - my sweet wonderful friend !!

I am pitching the old computer and that was my desktop picture. So of course I thought of my WV-beauty and how nice it would be if I could put it here. As luck would have it Birch's Home was open - so I felt comfortable putting it here (in the miriculous event it actually worked).

Whenever I think of WV - this is where I go.

OK Birch....I'm gone....but thanks.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished buying 16 wall flowers for today - looking forward to tomorrow to try and do the same thing. That makes 86 buys on this bottom process. Many more to go.