Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At some point in the future I'll be obliged to start accumulating my commodity stocks again. The energy sector in 2002 carried a paltry 6% weighting in the S&P 500. In 1980 energy and basic materials together made up nearly 40% of the S&P 500's weighting, today they make up a little less than half that. I made excellent profits this year on my commodity plays. The shortest bull market in commodities lasted 15 years and the longest bull market lasted 23 years. So if history is any guide, this current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022. This tells me the C fund will be the outperformer going forward. Snort.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So you're saying we have to live through essentially flat market for 5 years (til 2012-from 2007) before things pick up again? That's what the 1990-95 section on a 1990-2008 spx chart looks like. Lots of other people in the world been saying that too, you're not as out of step as you think sometimes, other than averaging down into the macroscale extended flatline.

I don't mean that in a snarky way, just loyal opposition checking the implications.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

sugarandspite,

I know when you're around because I can see the bottom of your shoes - it does make it awkward though when I try to sit down - but I make do. I'm fortunate to be in your thoughts but could you snug it up just a little more.

 

[Davehop21]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This reminds me of the age old question, Who is the bigger idiot? The idiot or the idiot that argues with the idiot. Food for thought.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanx Davehop21 but this is my romance not yours. She is wanton for me and only me - you don't have a chance to pull her away for a better time.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You're something else Birch.

On the worst of days you're cheering the low prices and on the better days you've got your hands raised in VICTORY.

Rock on my friend. :laugh:


No one else could handle her - she'd tear us to pieces and throw us in the freezer with BigFoot

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This reminds me of the age old question, Who is the bigger idiot? The idiot or the idiot that argues with the idiot. Food for thought.

You forgot the idiot who feels the compulsion to comment on the idiot's conversation. Welcome!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

My dividends are doing all the heavy lifting and that makes life easier. Always buying regardless of the current situations. The good news is that bear markets usually don't last as long as bull markets and when they begin to recover, they tend to come back quickly, often within 12 months. If one has the stomach for it, bad times can be a good time to invest. I bought some more LEH today at $7.96 with some left over spill money. I still have a few buy outs going on that I can pre-empt for quick cash to add to my toxic portfolio foundation - buy'em when they stink the most. I enjoy hugging sugar and Smokey the bear.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

My dividends are doing all the heavy lifting and that makes life easier. Always buying regardless of the current situations. The good news is that bear markets usually don't last as long as bull markets and when they begin to recover, they tend to come back quickly, often within 12 months. If one has the stomach for it, bad times can be a good time to invest. I bought some more LEH today at $7.96 with some left over spill money. I still have a few buy outs going on that I can pre-empt for quick cash to add to my toxic portfolio foundation - buy'em when they stink the most. I enjoy hugging sugar and Smokey the bear.

Glad things are going well for ya.

I'm sure you won't get posts from me trying to warm you about LEH.

Time will tell Birch, I'm not worried at all; but I feel a real Bear Market was largely averted with gimmicks - and if I'm right then the real one is yet to come.

If on the otherhand, I see a renewed hope of a 'short term' Election driven rally - I'll be back in; now I think it's doubtful.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Where's my sideline capital? That's all I'm asking for. Can you spare some change?

 

[love-to-bike]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,
I bought some more LEH today at $7.96 with some left over spill money.

Picked some up myself at $8.00. Up to $8.50 for awhile, down now to $7.25, one wild ride.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm in LEH initially at $18.56 and then at $14.94, $14.54, $7.96. I'll be nibbling on the upside for the next several years if they survive - they may spin off some of the real estate holdings in a new company and perhaps common shareholders may be recipients. This is a buy and hold position and will not be traded. I'm reminded that people who call themselves investors should remember that an investor buys and holds. Traders move in and out of the market.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This reminds me of the age old question, Who is the bigger idiot? The idiot or the idiot that argues with the idiot. Food for thought.

Who let the rookie in?

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You're something else Birch.

On the worst of days you're cheering the low prices and on the better days you've got your hands raised in VICTORY.

Rock on my friend. :laugh:


No one else could handle her - she'd tear us to pieces and throw us in the freezer with BigFoot

If your a buy and holder you love these low prices when you buy more shares. It's the final price when they sell that only matters to the buy & holder.

We love you Birch!

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You forgot the idiot who feels the compulsion to comment on the idiot's conversation. Welcome!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The past 18 months have seen more volume climaxes in the stock market than at any time in history. (that's an important fact for me to remember). To what can this extraordinarily high level of share turnover be attributed? We know it can't be attributed to public participation, for the public is no longer a major player in the equities arena. Retail investors hold only 34% of shares in the top 1,000 companies at the end of 2006, the last year for which figures are available. By contrast, institutions hold 76% of shares in the biggest groups. Since that time the percentage held by institutions and hedge funds has undoubtedly increased while public participation has dropped even further".

http://safehaven.com/article-11198.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm sitting here contemplating how fortunate I am now that I don't have to seek a desparate need for attention because as long as I have Digger snugged in up to my transverse colon I'm never alone. How great is that. And no 2x4 is necessary.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Is Digger your dog???

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

fabijo,

No, Digger is my nemesis. I believe she intentionally agitates and antagonizes to increase her viewership - from now on she will always be in my butt.

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

from now on she will always be in my butt.

:laugh: got it. Ya never know. I once knew someone who used to tell people that his dog likes to "greet" him when he got out of the shower, and he liked it.