Birchtree's Account Talk

[GUCHI]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

i'm with u steady i have been holding in I it seems forever waiting fore things to turnaround. i have 5 years and a peace left to make my tsp $$$$$$, so hopefully i can. the 2 trade per month has really f--ked me up !!! good luck 2 all.

 

[Scout333]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It looks like the FED/Congress managed to stabilize the 2 biggest players (Freddie and Fannie) and that is likely the last of the Huge Hits pertaining to the Financial/Housing Sectors.

The good news is Freddie and Fannie will be restructured with huge Government/FED oversight - and that will ultimately spur a very good "long run" outlook. This all the more makes me glad I did not sell at a loss. [/QUOTE]

Why haven't we seen a more positive response to the Gov/Fed bailout of Freddie and Fannie?? I agree we should be seeing close to the end of the housing crisis. Also, banks are well known for overstating potential bad debts. i.e. they don't like to go back to the analysts/bank examiners and admit they have underestimated their exposure. When they collect more than they estimated that they would it makes them look like heros! When the housing/real estate market finally turns around the "problem" is resolved to a large extent.

 

[luv2read]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Because the credit-swap spread is so huge and just getting bigger. They haven't disclosed all of the writedowns yet. Once they do, the endof the "unwinding" of this ponzi scheme will begin.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

...........as well as the 2002 bear market lowes ........

Guess you had your spelcheck off huh?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

sugarandspite,

Apparently so. But I don't use any spell checking device.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are now highly oversold on the NYSE breadth MCSUM at -1059.81 but the NYSE breadth MCO at -44.04 is showing a positive breadth double divergence - does it or will it mean anything, I think so sooner rather than later. The NYSE breadth MCSUM took out last year's low as well as the 2002 bear market lowes as well. I won't predict a rally because I don't have a clue as to when one will arrive. I do know that I will continue to buy in the bludgeoned financial sector. One of our undistinguished members thinks that my renderings are not relevant to TSP but her fatuous opinion means little considering the undignified source. She has yet to realize that her TSP account is only a supplemental fiduciary account meant as an addition toward savings not designed to practice the hard ball tactics of investing in the real world - you simply need more than TSP to make your world go round. That's why I'm basically a buy and holder of my tugboat account - I know it's there and on auto-pilot DCAing my contributions while these prices fluctuate. In the long run the best policy is to be right and sit tight - that'll drive her crazy.

I don't focus on other investments here because it is TSP. Plus I don't need to validate myself when I'm losing my A$$ by cackling about all the other "great" things I have working for me when the market is tanking. We know that you are the all-seeing, all-knowing oracle of the financial world. You have told us numerous times that you have been doing it for years. It just seems that your experence would let you minimize your losses. Oh yeah, you think it's fear to do that. We all know you aren't afraid of anything. Keep up the good cheer. I'm sure the flock is still behind you. Maybe you should put on that big golden wrapped turban with the big jewel in the middle on next time you address them. It doesn't take much to convince them. As for driving me crazy......dream on .......it's a website for TSP......It's mildly amusing at best.

Did you spot it this time?

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Attacking an audience in addition to the speaker leaves one without any listeners.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

sugarandspite,

The word is experience - and yes I have plenty of it. I share my experience on my thread because this is how I invest - no one is required to read this thread nor take any of the information as gospel. You are who you are and I am who I am - no one is the same. I firmly believe that the next bull market when it starts is going to be a super-whopper. And I'm preparing my base to fully participate and pull down multi$K in the hundreds of thousands - my TSP will also participate because I haven't lost a cent only time and I have time on my side. All my assets are still intact and ready to take opportunity when the mega trend secular bull market returns. I gladly accept your criticisms because I know that my out come will sustain me for years into the future. I think we are finally seeing some true colores and I appreciate that rather than your nonsense. Gumby is right - keep up the strategic investing - even I may learn something.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's well documented here that I am a momentum player focused on I fund explotation. With the new restrictions I can't play like I used to.

Did you catch this one?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

sugarandspite,

You're making it easy now: exploitation. Did you notice the missing letter on trumpet - I'm trying to remain politically correct. And of course you know I don't mean it - I actually like you even if the feelings are requited. That's what happens when I don't use a spell check devise. So you are optimistic - perhaps you can relate your thoughts for better understanding. I will tell you that I believe this site deals with many investing topics and not just TSP - even Tom in his daily comments covers the full gamit on investing. If you relate strictly to TSP all one can talk about is the moves here and there. Open up some more and show me your level of sophistication.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Irwin Kellner says "look past the gloom for intelligent buying opportunities. Buy low, sell high. You don't have to be a stock markewt expert to figure out that this is the way to make money in the market. I can't tell you how many people have asked me within the past few weeks if they should get out of the market, now that prices have fallen. It's hard to blame them for this attitude. First, people who call themselves investors should remember that an investor buys and holds. Traders move in and out of the market... I am aware that if everyone around you is nervous and excited and you are calm and collected it could be because you don't understand the situation. But there's always the possibility that the crowd is wrong, so judicious buying at times like these could prove to be rewarding. The market's drop from October highs is roughly twice as much as the decline in corporate profits reported so far. If the market is right, second quarter profits, now about to be reported, should be pretty dismal. On the other hand, if earnings are not as bad as expected, the market could bounce higher - and with it your stocks."

http://www.marketwatch.com Irwin Kellner - The bears of summer

looks like I'll be buying more financial stocks sometime tomorrow. Staying the course and riding the downside spending money all the way down. I always say I work best from the bottom of the well - let me drown if that's my final outcome.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The first chart we will look at is a 10 year chart of the Banking Index. There is no other way to describe it other than a crash on the Banking Index. The Index is now far below any levels seen since 1998."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10752.htm

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchie, from your post above, you're reading this and STILL doing what you're doing?
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10752.htm

Please ... give up the concept that "bargain stocks" are a good buy when their movements have been nothing but unabated down trends. When they reverse their trends to the upside, there will be plenty of time to shop around.

I know you'll be ok, you've got such deep pockets compared to the rest of us, but still. Why go through the pain, why not wait like Marty says? Just seems like those deep pockets would get that much deeper if you were willing to wait just a little longer, in this market you really could afford to wait. The fundamentals have been telling me that for weeks, if not months, based on the people I read, not just the stockcharts. And the fundamentals are coming to pass as people I read foretold.

May we all get out of this without going through what my greatgrandparents, grandmother and parents went through-or worse. My greatgrandfather lost the family farm in the GD-he mortgaged it to put his kid through college, and then couldn't get the help to keep the farm in operation because his kid didn't want to come back to the farm. Remember your family's stories, they are valuable in times like these.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

no one is required to read this thread nor take any of the information as gospel.

Birchtree: Love him, hate him, you'll never forget him.

If the market was rallying right now, even the haters would be carrying Birchtree off the field like Rudy Ruettiger on 11/8/1975.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Presently I have five stock buyouts going on - why are these companies wanting to buy each other up? They obviously see value that will eventually be added to their bottom line - I'm no different when I accumulate wall flowers. This period reminds me when I was buying off shore drillers when oil was priced at $10 per barrel or when I was buying utility stocks after three mile island. Utility dividends at that time were tax free - and they saved the day during the 1982 bottom prior to that sweet rally. This scenario is really no different all that has changed is the stock sector. It always requires a certain degree of courage to remain true to my stratregy and my rebel contrarian ways - but believe me I know full well what I'm doing and the subsequent consequences that will make me a rather wealthy individual - this is really once in a generation situation. Look at those financial charts again....I see past Marty...I'm buying for the three to five year time horizon. My daughter and numerous clients are doing similar foolish things. We like value and are willing to risk several birchtree limbs to accumulate these unappreciated stocks. Be in to win.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I wish I could be as negative as some of these gophers around here that live underground - but it ain't in my jeans. As hard as I look all I see is stabilization

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Kind of a boring day so far. No major bank failures and Birch my boy is spreading the love.

Hey,

When ya going to get off the individual stocks and get some UYG? Talk about a diversified bargain.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yesterday we had 19 new highs and 1304 new lows - that's deeper than the March low. Good earnings from Wells Fargo - hope it's just the beginning of some good news. I've still got some cash to do selective buying even when the financials are moving up.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My daughter and numerous clients are doing similar foolish things.

Baaaaaa!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My dear girl and I use the term with the utmost of respect - everyone I associate with is going to make money today except you. We are in at lower prices and now we weep the rewards but the question remains for how long. Capitulation arrived yesterday. Oil is down another $6.60 at this moment to 132.34. Long live the bull and the petulant and puerile matadors. And yes there is a not so obvious subliminal message there. Take care. Snort.