Birchtree's Account Talk

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, what on earth are you smokin'? Lately you are just so full of tunes, you're like the unsinkable Molly Brown! Come on now, what has oil to do w/price of tea in China? :nuts: I'm sure there must be a connection in there somewhere.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm fortunate to own a handfull of specialty chemical stocks - perhaps one of mine will go up for a buy out. Rohm & Haas is being bought out by Dow Chemical at $29 premium. GE is going to spin off its' appliance division to shareholders - I'll be glad for the gift. I like tunes so wait for my Canned Heat favorite.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have now made 128 stock purchases in the last two weeks. How many more will I be forced to conduct before I can rest. In 2007 I made 522 individual buys and now I'm doubling down on some of those purchases. The lower the pricing the greedier I get - there must be something wrong with my ego to challenge these levels of valuation - I don't think it's genetic so it must be my adrenalin rush because I have no fear being on the offensive. I know what it is - it's repetition derived from years of market experience - I'm such a contrarian rebel only a few limited risk takes seem to understand. Let them then eat cake. I'll eat wall flowers.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since June 5th, the S&P 500 has declined by 11.4% without a 2% rally in between, which makes this the sharpest uninterrupted decline since February 2003. I could easily wait another month if this becomes a repeat of 2003. The last bottom of a triple bottom appeared in March 2003 - then it was a 3,000 point gain in the Dow in ten months of rally. I remember that was when I rode the S fund up until swithching back to the C fund in February 2004 - been in C ever since with occasional partial trysts into the I fund for several round trips. I need a 6,000 point run to redeem myself. I realize this type of move would seem unreasonable - but I'm trying to remain creative to stay long. Even another 3,000 point run would leave me well set financially. Of course I'd be a buyer all the way up.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Some Bull food to chew on. Still rising, looks like it broke away from late May to June. You know how breakaways go in road racing, they always get caught.

NYSE Group Inc. Issues Short Interest Report

http://www.nyse.com/press/1210070301588.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another record short interest at 18 billion shares will definitely fuel my desire for a 6,000 point run - this could easily last years. And everyone is sitting on the sidelines in cash looking for yield when we have a yield shortage - I can usually smell the superlative bull manure but this now smells like rocket fuel. Even Buffett seems to be following the tried and true axiom that the best time to make long-term bets is when fear is at its peak. He's participating in the Dow Chemical - Rohm - Haas deal. I should be depressed like the rest of the herd but it's just not in my jeans. I'm totally excited by what the future might bring. Strap me in because I'm ready for my next rocket ride.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm running in front of the train this morning chasing some of the financial stocks. If they flame out I'll get a few toasted fingers but I'm buying: FNM, SOV, MER, LEH, BAC. Simply doubling down on the panic lows. My Hercules (HPC) is being bought by Ashland Oil. This is going to be an interesting day - with the market responding to various rumors. If it goes lower I'll be doing more buying - stepping in where angels fear to tread.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another record short interest at 18 billion shares will definitely fuel my desire for a 6,000 point run - this could easily last years. And everyone is sitting on the sidelines in cash looking for yield when we have a yield shortage - I can usually smell the superlative bull manure but this now smells like rocket fuel. Even Buffett seems to be following the tried and true axiom that the best time to make long-term bets is when fear is at its peak. He's participating in the Dow Chemical - Rohm - Haas deal. I should be depressed like the rest of the herd but it's just not in my jeans. I'm totally excited by what the future might bring. Strap me in because I'm ready for my next rocket ride.

Hope you took a potty break before you strapped in, Birch..lookin like a long countdown...t-2 years

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm going in but only to set myself up for a rally.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oil is drifting back down so who knows you may get some lift today - the rally could easily come from out of left field and snare some shorts for the squeez.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From my friends at Merrill. By Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst

"Looking below the surface. DJIA at new reaction lows due to just a few stocks. The DJIA recently broke to new 52-week lows. However, it's important to note that during the days when the break occurred, the number of component stocks making new lows declined significantly. In addition, only a minority of stocks in the DJIA reached new 52-week lows. We view this as both a positive divergence and a sign of exhaustion. (Similarly, low and shrinking numbers also were evident for the S&P 500). We would also note that the S&P transportation, Midcap and Smallcap indexes, as well as the NASDAQ Composite, have held above their respective year to date lows.

VIX spike not necessary. The VIX is no exception to the sentiment background. While some observers are looking for this volatility measure to spike above current levels, there are at least four reasons why a spike is not necessary. First, the VIX is currently in strong resistance; the fact that it is not at levels seen in January or March can be viewed as a positive divergence. Second, hedge funds have record cash levels; this influences the VIX becase HFs are short and in cash with no need to hedge. Third, the VIX is currently higher than the levels it reached at important markets lows in March 2003, August and October 2004, June-July 2006, and March 2007. Finally, the put/call ratio for the VIX has recently been probing levels that have marked previous tops for the VIX itself. In short, waiting for a spike in the VIX may result in a lost opportunity".

I gotta tell you all I plan to continue to double down as long as we continue to drop. I have several positions that I can relinquish because they are being bought out and that will release further cash. What kind of temperment is needed to be a good investor. Tenacity is vital. So is patience. And so, too, is an ability to keep some perspective. Pain rules. When the turn finally comes I'll be greedly there to catch every point just like I have on the downside. This is becoming old hat from my perspective.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Can you make money being a contrarian?"

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tycoon/2008/0711.html

 

[DoughBoy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Can you make money being a contrarian?"

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0711.html

I enjoyed the article! Thanks for posting. It was very informative to me.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anyone know how dividends work in the C and S funds? Can you anticipate when they will be paid? How is it done...just one day, the TSP share prices goes up more than expected? Thanks.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From my friends at Merrill. By Mary Ann Bartels - Technical Research Analyst

"Looking below the surface. DJIA at new reaction lows due to just a few stocks. The DJIA recently broke to new 52-week lows. However, it's important to note that during the days when the break occurred, the number of component stocks making new lows declined significantly. In addition, only a minority of stocks in the DJIA reached new 52-week lows. We view this as both a positive divergence and a sign of exhaustion. (Similarly, low and shrinking numbers also were evident for the S&P 500). We would also note that the S&P transportation, Midcap and Smallcap indexes, as well as the NASDAQ Composite, have held above their respective year to date lows.

VIX spike not necessary. The VIX is no exception to the sentiment background. While some observers are looking for this volatility measure to spike above current levels, there are at least four reasons why a spike is not necessary. First, the VIX is currently in strong resistance; the fact that it is not at levels seen in January or March can be viewed as a positive divergence. Second, hedge funds have record cash levels; this influences the VIX becase HFs are short and in cash with no need to hedge. Third, the VIX is currently higher than the levels it reached at important markets lows in March 2003, August and October 2004, June-July 2006, and March 2007. Finally, the put/call ratio for the VIX has recently been probing levels that have marked previous tops for the VIX itself. In short, waiting for a spike in the VIX may result in a lost opportunity".

I gotta tell you all I plan to continue to double down as long as we continue to drop. I have several positions that I can relinquish because they are being bought out and that will release further cash. What kind of temperment is needed to be a good investor. Tenacity is vital. So is patience. And so, too, is an ability to keep some perspective. Pain rules. When the turn finally comes I'll be greedly there to catch every point just like I have on the downside. This is becoming old hat from my perspective.

Just thought I would check in - I've been shorting everything and doing okay. Nothing in the TSP anymore because just too many restrictions with ol' Huey Long at the helm. Making some decent money but feel like I have to take a shower after making money off the problems facing the US of A - but sometimes you have to hold your nose and do what you have to do. It's amazing what some of these idiots did and are doing and thought there would be no ill effects starting with no doc. loans to the rest of this corner we have painted ourselves into etc including the buck forty five oil/barrel. Everytime someone in Congress opens their mouth I always check to make to make sure my wallet is still intact. I'm rooting for the the longs in the long run no pun intended because I would much rather make my money that way hoping that we turn this crap around because I will go long in a second when it looks right. Nothing profound here just some observations.

best

cayman

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This is a once in a life time opportunity for valuations, for all financials. When we look back historically, we will be writing about the irrational panic of 2007 and 2008. The real secret to being, or becoming, an intelligent investor is bolstering your self-control. Painstaking investors - literally, those who can take the pain of a bear martket that seems to drop another 1% everyday - will ultimately triumph, by patiently amassing greater and greater equity positions at better and better prices. An intelligent investor hopes things do get worse. This allows one to buy even more shares more cheaply before the bounce back. The people who so far this year have yanked $39 billion out of U.S. stock funds, and $6 billion out of exchange-traded stock funds, do not understand this. But if you are still in your saving and investing years, a bear market is a gift from the financial gods - and the longer it lasts, the better off you will be. Instead of running from the bear, you should embrace him. Trading in the NYSE stocks was the third-highest on record Friday."

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

I think it's time to do a little more doubling down into the financials - maybe I'll hit one that's going out of business...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Loading up the pickup with a few more terrible purchases - I can't help myself. Bought: FHN, STI, MER, WB, RF.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since June 5th, the S&P 500 has declined by 11.4% without a 2% rally in between, which makes this the sharpest uninterrupted decline since February 2003. I could easily wait another month if this becomes a repeat of 2003. The last bottom of a triple bottom appeared in March 2003 - then it was a 3,000 point gain in the Dow in ten months of rally. I remember that was when I rode the S fund up until swithching back to the C fund in February 2004 - been in C ever since with occasional partial trysts into the I fund for several round trips. I need a 6,000 point run to redeem myself. I realize this type of move would seem unreasonable - but I'm trying to remain creative to stay long. Even another 3,000 point run would leave me well set financially. Of course I'd be a buyer all the way up.

Wow! What analysis. Especially that first line. Amazingly similar to an article here. http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/07/uninterrupted-d.html Birch, you should really do personal finances for living.
ALL HAIL JOE! ALL HAIL JOE! In Biden/Birch we trust! BAAAAAAAAAA!


P.S. We know...... it was there before or used to be and now it's gone or oh yeah I forgot or whatever.....................

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are now highly oversold on the NYSE breadth MCSUM at -1059.81 but the NYSE breadth MCO at -44.04 is showing a positive breadth double divergence - does it or will it mean anything, I think so sooner rather than later. The NYSE breadth MCSUM took out last year's low as well as the 2002 bear market lowes as well. I won't predict a rally because I don't have a clue as to when one will arrive. I do know that I will continue to buy in the bludgeoned financial sector. One of our undistinguished members thinks that my renderings are not relevant to TSP but her fatuous opinion means little considering the undignified source. She has yet to realize that her TSP account is only a supplemental fiduciary account meant as an addition toward savings not designed to practice the hard ball tactics of investing in the real world - you simply need more than TSP to make your world go round. That's why I'm basically a buy and holder of my tugboat account - I know it's there and on auto-pilot DCAing my contributions while these prices fluctuate. In the long run the best policy is to be right and sit tight - that'll drive her crazy.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just thought I would check in - I've been shorting everything and doing okay. Nothing in the TSP anymore because just too many restrictions with ol' Huey Long at the helm. Making some decent money but feel like I have to take a shower after making money off the problems facing the US of A - but sometimes you have to hold your nose and do what you have to do. It's amazing what some of these idiots did and are doing and thought there would be no ill effects starting with no doc. loans to the rest of this corner we have painted ourselves into etc including the buck forty five oil/barrel. Everytime someone in Congress opens their mouth I always check to make to make sure my wallet is still intact. I'm rooting for the the longs in the long run no pun intended because I would much rather make my money that way hoping that we turn this crap around because I will go long in a second when it looks right. Nothing profound here just some observations.

best

cayman

Cayman, it's good to hear from ya.

I woke in the middle of the night and came down to the hotel lobby. You sound very smart and I honestly hope everything continues to go well. Leaving the TSP sounds more and more like a very good decision. The better Financial Advisors solidly support this - so I plan to do the same after I retire.

I'm all the more glad you're making money on the huge mess this country's having to deal with. For one - it has nothing to do with you or me - and for another the underlying dynamics behind it are totally out of sync with the core values your father held (or what you hold) - so I all the more applaud anyone who can take advantage of the opportunities that arise.

The long view is by far the best one (which is probably why you've done so well over the years). Many have sold at huge losses over the past few weeks and it will take a very long time to make it back.

Well, GL to everyone.

It looks like the FED/Congress managed to stabilize the 2 biggest players (Freddie and Fannie) and that is likely the last of the Huge Hits pertaining to the Financial/Housing Sectors.

The good news is Freddie and Fannie will be restructured with huge Government/FED oversight - and that will ultimately spur a very good "long run" outlook. This all the more makes me glad I did not sell at a loss.