Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bah! Dip buyers that missed the bear rally and are afraid of missing out again. Rally ended at 1440. Market is oversold though, so this might be a good time to start buying in. I'd wait to see if it's going to bounce or tank though...always buy on the way up, not down.

Birch needs a little doom n gloom.;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Lone Ranger: "Tonto,,,it looks like we are surrounded"
Tonto: " What do you mean we, white man"
Sorry, the pic reminded me of a funny.

May the smart money enter and fill your pockets !
The (G) membership support you and your testiclular fortitude !
You Go Birchtree, kick some TSP butt !
:nuts:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The recent Vickers ratio is at 2.05 to 1 and is a very bullish reading for indider buying. Insiders usually move 6 to 9 months ahead of the market.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The biggest up day in history can come at any time. One has to remember that as we continue to move toward the epicenter of primary 3 corrections will tend to be harder, faster, and set spectacular bottoms in which to move up aggressively. The ability to step back and use the market to achieve one's goals, rather than trying to follow and beat the market's every move, is key to a long-term success in investing.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - Should we publish our theory:

A markedly declining F Fund is countered with positive C,S,I Funds.

Today's finding brings the probablity to 97.3%

That is stastically significant.


back to the drawing board - about 12 charts to go
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The biggest up day in history can come at any time.

Birch

does this also include the I fund ???
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes, we are now a global market with immense liquidity flows from market to market. You might actually see the historic gains in the I fund first with the other funds to follow. Do you recall the day that the S&P 500 went up 70 points in one day - I do and it can easily happen again - maybe a hundred points.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain said:
Birch - Should we publish our theory:

A markedly declining F Fund is countered with positive C,S,I Funds.

Today's finding brings the probablity to 97.3%

That is stastically significant.


back to the drawing board - about 12 charts to go
Click to expand...
How do you explain all 4 declining? Or rising?;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Unless the flow of money is moving in the right direction, Elliott, cycles, fractals, pivot points, everything and anything you can name will only have their true worth if you know the direction of the underlying action that is the engine that pushes prices higher or lower in the first place. Money flow, as it applies to the A/D line has been very consistent and the best thing about this type of methodology is this; you don't have to know why it is what it is, you just have to follow the money. The whys and whats will always be known later on, but it's detrimental to ones bottom line if you swim against this same tide. Snort.

What we want to maintain is the discipline to always be looking for change before the majority realizes what's going on. In an uptrend we're looking for bearish divergence - lack of money flow etc, in a downtrend we're looking for the building blocks of a rally. It's not peoplew buying that makes prices go higher, it's the prices going higher that make people buy. Ain't that how it works? I believe this market is coiled and ready to release. We generated a TRIN of 5 at the 2003 lows and we generated a 16 Trin back at the 2/27/07 lows and this continues to be the greatest ally that the bulls have right now - keep focused on the longer-term picture.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Unless the flow of money is moving in the right direction, Elliott, cycles, fractals, pivot points, everything and anything you can name will only have their true worth if you know the direction of the underlying action that is the engine that pushes prices higher or lower in the first place. Money flow, as it applies to the A/D line has been very consistent and the best thing about this type of methodology is this; you don't have to know why it is what it is, you just have to follow the money. The whys and whats will always be known later on, but it's detrimental to ones bottom line if you swim against this same tide. Snort.

What we want to maintain is the discipline to always be looking for change before the majority realizes what's going on. In an uptrend we're looking for bearish divergence - lack of money flow etc, in a downtrend we're looking for the building blocks of a rally. It's not peoplew buying that makes prices go higher, it's the prices going higher that make people buy. Ain't that how it works? I believe this market is coiled and ready to release. We generated a TRIN of 5 at the 2003 lows and we generated a 16 Trin back at the 2/27/07 lows and this continues to be the greatest ally that the bulls have right now - keep focused on the longer-term picture.
Click to expand...

Birch - I'm serious YOU SOUND LIKE A F***** GENIOUS

I mean you really sound like you know your stuff.

With my focus still on the S&P as the core underlying structure that pretty much determines the strength our of Funds. Today was not impressive to me at all. Considering the decline of the past few days and only a .26% Gain - I would say the Fund was struggling to take off but basically just held on. Without sustainable strength I would remain on the sidelines.

Tomorrow I'll either cheer you - or you'll cheer me - but I seriously doubt the day will end flat.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Lousy sentiment is always bullish. The recent two day correction has only been a setback in an unprecedented bull market. For me the SPX above 1437 solidifies the Jan-April bottoming process and will signal a primary trend shift - just be patient.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Lousy sentiment is always bullish. The recent two day correction has only been a setback in an unprecedented bull market. For me the SPX above 1437 solidifies the Jan-April bottoming process and will signal a primary trend shift - just be patient.
Click to expand...


Birch,

How does $137 BBL oil figure into the S&P moving to 1437? Things appear to be going from bad to worse with the economy. Road diesel is $4.69 a gallon here in MO. Gas is $3.79 for reg unlead which is more than a gallon of milk. I don't see it getting better anytime soon and our whole economy is geared to fossil fuels currently. I predict rampant inflation :sick: this year......much worse than the government will ever predict.
I just can't see how the markets can continue to move up unless oil price drops dramatically.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Lousy sentiment is always bullish. The recent two day correction has only been a setback in an unprecedented bull market.
Click to expand...

Birch, I'm sorry - you can argue with me but no one can argue with Gumby.

Now I'm really convinced I'm better off in safety !!


I'd be tempted to give you a dollar for going to G. That would be the most historic event that ever happened on the MB.

The last time you went all G Fund was 11/06/06
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been in the C fund since 2/04 never wasting to the G fund. Now I have done a few swing trades in and out of the I fund but only going back to 100% C fund. My friend that is blasphemous to suggest that I would cut and run to the G fund during the largest mega trend secular bull market in history - I'm too greedy I want all the potential points to the upside.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gumby,

29% of the SPX is energy related and there will be other energy stocks joining the SPX in the future. It's all about the future earnings and yes we are in an inflationary commodity bull market and stocks have always been an excellent hedge against inflation. If recent mid cytcle slow downs (1985 + 1995) are any indication of future market moves, this should be a positive for the markets going forward.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Defaming perhaps, but even your self confidence does not raise it to blasphemous! :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

In my own defense I am a born again Republican and an evangelical buy and holder.
 
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