Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

To answer your question of how far - who really knows. After the third bottom of a triple bottom ending in March '03, the market rallied 3000 points in ten months from a much lower Dow bottom number. Sentiment and value readings are now at the same lows, but we would rally from a higher level. With all the cash on the side lines the upside could potentially be parabolic to the tune of perhaps 5,000 points with some actual 400 point days to the upside. The world is not ending and the future is still bright. I'll be patient and wait my turn to fully participate - until then I never miss a move, either up or down. I did take in some dividends yesterday and will pick up more today throughout the week - that's all I can expect for now - just keep building the base in preparation for the continuing mega trend secular bull market. If I sound too bullish during this time of stress - well I am a permabull so it's in my jeans - pun intended. Snort.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

To answer your question of how far - who really knows. After the third bottom of a triple bottom ending in March '03, the market rallied 3000 points in ten months from a much lower Dow bottom number. Sentiment and value readings are now at the same lows, but we would rally from a higher level. With all the cash on the side lines the upside could potentially be parabolic to the tune of perhaps 5,000 points with some actual 400 point days to the upside. The world is not ending and the future is still bright. I'll be patient and wait my turn to fully participate - until then I never miss a move, either up or down. I did take in some dividends yesterday and will pick up more today throughout the week - that's all I can expect for now - just keep building the base in preparation for the continuing mega trend secular bull market. If I sound too bullish during this time of stress - well I am a permabull so it's in my jeans - pun intended. Snort.

While I do not believe the bear market is over, there will be fake outs when people think it is. I still hold to my forecast of bigger background problems which will have long term implications. But, should be some good denial rallies.

One of my friends did a very simple analysis on the long term market. He said that after a correction, you wait 1 year. Then, if the market is higher, you sell. The theory is that the market usually over corrects upward after a correction, before a bear market. IF...this is only a correction or quick/mild bear, it would suggest that we DO rise rapidly out of this over the next year.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

still taking a beating and still bleeding hang on tight and one of these days i hope

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been devalued many times over the years - but the sun always shines after a good rain. This is an opportunity to enjoy the masculinity of accepting a certain amount of pain and continue to work toward building a base because it's really the number of shares one accumulates that will provide the profits later. And one always collects more shares when they are priced wholesale. I'm anticipating my next DCA into the C fund under $15.00 - I may even defer my retirement to continue to be paid and accumulate more shares. I know that sounds greedy - but I appreciate value when it beckons.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch and Corepuncher,

Thanks for the posts - very good info.

Corepuncher, my general view is probably more in line with yours and Bush's attack on OPEC today is disgusting. I wish the he## the guy at the Top would say "We have some long standing problems eroding our economy and I want everyone to know that before we can expect the foundation we need for sustained solid gains SOME CHANGES NEED TO BE ENACTED AND DURING THESE CHANGES IT WILL BE PAINFUL." That would be a far better message than trying to blame OPEC. However, I fully agree with Birch - in the fact that the Global Powers will in no way, shape, or form let the Economy Collapse and regardless of how low we go - it can only go for so long before the uptread solidifies. Within the next few years the bulk of us will more than make up for our losses, and this era of bad news and declines - will be like a little speed bump along the way.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is an inter-meeting Fed rate cut coming - perhaps 50 basis points and then another 50 basis points on March 18th.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is an inter-meeting Fed rate cut coming - perhaps 50 basis points and then another 50 basis points on March 18th.

Did you hear that on CNBC? LOL!:laugh:

Actually, I hope they do it tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today was a classic bull shaker - get off my back with a close to 400 point turn around. The important thing here for now is not to be lulled into thinking that price lows are either needed or wanted. The liquidity pool continues to rise, this will eventually push prices higher just on its own merit. The battle of all battles is about to take place. We have corrected enough now for this pause to refresh. It's time to see some sort of resumption to the upside. The October rate cut is due to hit the stocks anytime now. A cut before March 18th would be just what the bull ordered.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"U.S. Equities: Weathering The Storm. On a positive note, the preconditions for a shift in banks willingness to advance credit are developing (namely lower funding costs and a steeper yield curve) and are about to become even more intense. In addition, equity valuations are attractive (both in absolute terms and relative to other competing assets) and technicals appear to be bottoming at oversold extremes. Both signal that further downside should be limited."

http://bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., U.S. banks paid more than $110 billion in cash dividends, mostly to common stock holders, last year, up nearly 18% from 2006. That cash would have more than covered the roughly $100 billion in credit-related write-downs banks took last year. Nearly all of last year's dividend increases happened in the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter of 2007, banks paid $20.6 billion in dividends, down almost 40% from the 2006 quarter, according to FDIC data.

One development that might make life easier for banks is the yield curve - the gap between long and short term interest rates. The spread between 10 and two year Treasury notes has widened to more than 1.9%, the steepest the curve has been since July 2004. When the year began, the gap was just one percentage point, and just last June, short-term notes were yielding more than long-term issues. Because banks pay depositors short-term rates and lend at longer-term rates, a steep yield curve has been good for business in the past. That would be especially helpful now, if banks weren't so skittish about lending."

http://online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Number of Stocks Per Sector (1989-2008). Standard and Poor's has had a habit of adding stocks to the index that are in sectors that are doing well at the time (i.e. Financials, Technology). Given this trend, it comes as no surprise that the sector which has seen the greatest percentage increase in the number of its members over the last five years is Energy. In 2003, the sector bottomed out with 25 members. Since then its number of members has increased to 35, which represents an increase of 40%. What is interesting, however, is that while the Materials sector has been acting well thanks to the performance of commodities. Standard and Poor's has yet to embrace the trend. Over the last five years, that sector has seen its number of members actually decline by 6 from 34 to 28."

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As Jim Rogers of New York investment firm Rogers Holdings put it. "If you're in agriculture, you don't know there is a recession, you don't care." The amount of wheat, rice, corn, barley and other grains stored at warehouses around the world is enough to meet less than 60 days of global demand, a 35 year low, according to Merrill's analysis. Can the Saudi Royal Family grow grains in the sand? They should seriously consider getting smart before their tummies growl. We as a country can live with higher oil prices but Arab countries can't live without food.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We as a country can live with higher oil prices

I think that is being a little flippant.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We as a country can live with higher oil prices but Arab countries can't live without food.

Greg,

You have taken Birch out of context.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As Jim Rogers of New York investment firm Rogers Holdings put it. "If you're in agriculture, you don't know there is a recession, you don't care." The amount of wheat, rice, corn, barley and other grains stored at warehouses around the world is enough to meet less than 60 days of global demand, a 35 year low, according to Merrill's analysis. Can the Saudi Royal Family grow grains in the sand? They should seriously consider getting smart before their tummies growl. We as a country can live with higher oil prices but Arab countries can't live without food.

Hey Birchtree, CONGRATULATIONS on the 6,000 posts!
You're about to catch me! Man, I've got to speed up my posting or you will surely overtake me shortly.:worried:

 

[offtrack]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm buying FNM again today to either profit quick over oversell or long term hold

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
The housing situation is probably close to "the peak" opportunity. Would you suggest I begin buying up the foreclosures now; or wait for things to turn around a little first? I honestly rarely encounter opportunities of this magnitude - it's like a dream come true. The banks need my money; nice homes can be acquired for a fraction of their value; and I can't forsee anything else reaping bigger profits.

Would appreciate your thoughts on this.

 

[Boxholder]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch...Bargain buy right now on my stock NLY down 26% from the open. It's taking a scare hit on the Carlyle news. Great stock. I was up over 40% on it. Will be buying a bushel today.

 

[Boxholder]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch...Bargain buy right now on my stock NLY down 26% from the open. It's taking a scare hit on the Carlyle news. Great stock. I was up over 40% on it. Will be buying a bushel today.

Just bought $20k @ $15.01

 

[offtrack]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Box I just dumped half of the FNM shares for a little less than $1 share profit. I'll gamble with the rest to try and get a little more or hold for long but the damn financials are trading sideways since mid morn