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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Tugboat looked more like a carrier today. I wish you'd hurry and post something. A lot of our members are waiting with their boots on and would like to get them off. What? You still adding it all up?:laugh::laugh::laugh:
Tugboat looked more like a carrier today. I wish you'd hurry and post something. A lot of our members are waiting with their boots on and would like to get them off. What? You still adding it all up?:laugh::laugh::laugh:
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak - a few words of wisdom if I may. My oceanic did take in some nice K yesterday. I could be on my way to finally making my first $100K in a week - but of course I always anticipate that but never seem to arrive. The market still maintains a bottoms above bottoms structure on everything with the breadth thrusts off the January low still intact. The greater the compression the more explosive the reaction will eventually be. I suspect MOS will rest today after yesterdays eight point run - but my finger is on the trigger to peel some off to help grow my wall flowers. We'll see how the day works out. We may be looking at typical bull market traction being down in the morning and lifting off in the afternoon.
As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak - a few words of wisdom if I may. My oceanic did take in some nice K yesterday. I could be on my way to finally making my first $100K in a week - but of course I always anticipate that but never seem to arrive. The market still maintains a bottoms above bottoms structure on everything with the breadth thrusts off the January low still intact. The greater the compression the more explosive the reaction will eventually be. I suspect MOS will rest today after yesterdays eight point run - but my finger is on the trigger to peel some off to help grow my wall flowers. We'll see how the day works out. We may be looking at typical bull market traction being down in the morning and lifting off in the afternoon.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
In my personal estimation there are way too many members sitting on the lily pad and the infamous F fund. This is classic stuff - it's like sitting on the dock of the bay watching opportunity wash away. And folks that's really fine with me because afterall I am a renegade contrarian and I'll scoop up what they don't want. We are about to witness the mother of all short squeezes in the broad market. The bull, as always, likes to take as few people to the upside as possible. You can't do what everyone else does and expect different results. In bullish uptrends, price patterns will tend to open lower and gain through out the day. Remember that betting against fund flows, prevailing sentiment, and trend lines has made contrarian investors rich over the years.
In my personal estimation there are way too many members sitting on the lily pad and the infamous F fund. This is classic stuff - it's like sitting on the dock of the bay watching opportunity wash away. And folks that's really fine with me because afterall I am a renegade contrarian and I'll scoop up what they don't want. We are about to witness the mother of all short squeezes in the broad market. The bull, as always, likes to take as few people to the upside as possible. You can't do what everyone else does and expect different results. In bullish uptrends, price patterns will tend to open lower and gain through out the day. Remember that betting against fund flows, prevailing sentiment, and trend lines has made contrarian investors rich over the years.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree the market has gone up around 400 points in the past 3 days but on what I would not call heavy volume. I went G in the TSP account but long on spy, dia and qqqq and efa and eem and some soft and hard commodities so things worked out okay.
I would love to see the dow bounce to 12750 and break out of the triangle completely but I'm looking at the high's and lows on the NYSE and am not impressed. This could be what you call a wobbly W on the charts.
With Bernanke speaking tomorrow it could go either way plus we go the core CPU etc on Friday so I wouldn't get to excited.
My (family) TSP account is only 7% of total assets left too me to manage by wht00ss. I started shortint QID etc at 13,800 so I've made out okay to day but this is all outside the TSP account. I've been sitting in cash and the infamous lily pad f fund though the beginning of Feb and taken a few hits but slightly on the plus side. I've also ignored the TSP letter about trading limits and have done at least 12 IFT's like I care what they think. What are they going to do. I'm a corporate lawyer and will make my position very clear to them if it comes to that and explore all options.
I'm sorry I don't agree with you about playing in traffic when the market is dropping like a stone. It costs too much to make up. I have my trading account (because of the shorting up to 7.78m) so all in all not a bad couple of months. CP is still my main goal with CA predicated on the trading account.
Just a difference in philosophies. I try to minimize my losses as deemed appropriate.
By the way any doubts and I will be more than happy to privately let you take a peek at portfolio gains and losses and complete totals for all assets in the portfolio with the appropriate safety measures taken.
craig
Birchtree the market has gone up around 400 points in the past 3 days but on what I would not call heavy volume. I went G in the TSP account but long on spy, dia and qqqq and efa and eem and some soft and hard commodities so things worked out okay.
I would love to see the dow bounce to 12750 and break out of the triangle completely but I'm looking at the high's and lows on the NYSE and am not impressed. This could be what you call a wobbly W on the charts.
With Bernanke speaking tomorrow it could go either way plus we go the core CPU etc on Friday so I wouldn't get to excited.
My (family) TSP account is only 7% of total assets left too me to manage by wht00ss. I started shortint QID etc at 13,800 so I've made out okay to day but this is all outside the TSP account. I've been sitting in cash and the infamous lily pad f fund though the beginning of Feb and taken a few hits but slightly on the plus side. I've also ignored the TSP letter about trading limits and have done at least 12 IFT's like I care what they think. What are they going to do. I'm a corporate lawyer and will make my position very clear to them if it comes to that and explore all options.
I'm sorry I don't agree with you about playing in traffic when the market is dropping like a stone. It costs too much to make up. I have my trading account (because of the shorting up to 7.78m) so all in all not a bad couple of months. CP is still my main goal with CA predicated on the trading account.
Just a difference in philosophies. I try to minimize my losses as deemed appropriate.
By the way any doubts and I will be more than happy to privately let you take a peek at portfolio gains and losses and complete totals for all assets in the portfolio with the appropriate safety measures taken.
craig
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If we can close up 100 points on the day the Dow will be up over 700 points above where it stood at the close of January 22nd. As long as the NYAD line continues to move higher with enough strength to pull apart the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMAs, the higher and higher price is going to go. Bull markets often start with low volume because there are few believers - more volume will come later when opinions swith to positive. This rally could simply be a bear market rally - but I'm in to win and if it does rocket up I'm fully on board. If we retest the recent lows, well I'll visit the valley one more time. Thanks for the offer to peek but I'd surely end up coveting. I'll take a last 30 minute rally to top off the day up 200 points - the bull can run. Snort.
If we can close up 100 points on the day the Dow will be up over 700 points above where it stood at the close of January 22nd. As long as the NYAD line continues to move higher with enough strength to pull apart the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMAs, the higher and higher price is going to go. Bull markets often start with low volume because there are few believers - more volume will come later when opinions swith to positive. This rally could simply be a bear market rally - but I'm in to win and if it does rocket up I'm fully on board. If we retest the recent lows, well I'll visit the valley one more time. Thanks for the offer to peek but I'd surely end up coveting. I'll take a last 30 minute rally to top off the day up 200 points - the bull can run. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"On average currently, the 10 newsletters at the top of the ranking are recommending a 71% exposure to the equity market. In contrast, the average recommended equity exposure among the 10 worst is minus 12%; this negative exposure level means that these worst performers are recommending that their clients allocate 12% of their equity portfolios
to going short. This difference of 83 percentage points is one of the biggest I've ever seen between the average recommended exposure levels of the top 10 and bottom 10 timers. On the theory that the best long term timers are more likely to be right than the worst performers, this contrast bodes quite well for the stock markets intermediate term."
http://www.marketwatch.com by Mark Hulbert - Top Market Timers Still Bullish
"On average currently, the 10 newsletters at the top of the ranking are recommending a 71% exposure to the equity market. In contrast, the average recommended equity exposure among the 10 worst is minus 12%; this negative exposure level means that these worst performers are recommending that their clients allocate 12% of their equity portfolios
to going short. This difference of 83 percentage points is one of the biggest I've ever seen between the average recommended exposure levels of the top 10 and bottom 10 timers. On the theory that the best long term timers are more likely to be right than the worst performers, this contrast bodes quite well for the stock markets intermediate term."
http://www.marketwatch.com by Mark Hulbert - Top Market Timers Still Bullish
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From Don Hays of the Hays Advisory
"Twelve Days!....and you think that those 12 days have changed the American investment scene. I know they were horrendous days. The S&P 500 lost 9.4%. The Nasdaq lost 12.7%, and many of those offending lending organizations got clobbered with 50% losses. Rest assured that we are in agreement with Birchtree and we remain very bullish, and do not believe the recent panic decline that has reased much of our gains of the last one year is a new bear market, but rather just one of those periods in which the wisdom of the market realized it was time to get rid of some of the potentially disturbing excesses in the financial community. Is there any "safe investment today?" It is not my nature to speak in these words, that's better left to Birchtree, but I can't think of any more emphatic way to say it...."Hell. Yes!" The U.S. stock market."
From Don Hays of the Hays Advisory
"Twelve Days!....and you think that those 12 days have changed the American investment scene. I know they were horrendous days. The S&P 500 lost 9.4%. The Nasdaq lost 12.7%, and many of those offending lending organizations got clobbered with 50% losses. Rest assured that we are in agreement with Birchtree and we remain very bullish, and do not believe the recent panic decline that has reased much of our gains of the last one year is a new bear market, but rather just one of those periods in which the wisdom of the market realized it was time to get rid of some of the potentially disturbing excesses in the financial community. Is there any "safe investment today?" It is not my nature to speak in these words, that's better left to Birchtree, but I can't think of any more emphatic way to say it...."Hell. Yes!" The U.S. stock market."
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If it is at all possible Don Hays is even more bullish than you Birchtree and he has never seen a market that he didn't thing was going up to 20,000.
quote"
In summary, Don Hays has an about average track record for predicting stock market behavior. "
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Hays/
"Right now I'm just holding my cheeks and I am using both hands. 1437 solidifies the bottom. If we end up rocketing I'm strapped in to enjoy the g forces. It's time to buy more PVH." from the Birchtree.
Birchtree what the hell market are you looking at and talking about? - 1437 maybe in time (I can only assume you are talking about the s&p ) but it solidifies the bottom? Good luck with your trades (seriously I hope it works out for you) but I think I'm going to stick to some level of rationality hopefully with a dose of sanity tossed in for good measure.
If it is at all possible Don Hays is even more bullish than you Birchtree and he has never seen a market that he didn't thing was going up to 20,000.
quote"
In summary, Don Hays has an about average track record for predicting stock market behavior. "
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Hays/
"Right now I'm just holding my cheeks and I am using both hands. 1437 solidifies the bottom. If we end up rocketing I'm strapped in to enjoy the g forces. It's time to buy more PVH." from the Birchtree.
Birchtree what the hell market are you looking at and talking about? - 1437 maybe in time (I can only assume you are talking about the s&p ) but it solidifies the bottom? Good luck with your trades (seriously I hope it works out for you) but I think I'm going to stick to some level of rationality hopefully with a dose of sanity tossed in for good measure.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Mindy Lou came to me and said "Daddy Bull, the board is quiet tonight - let's squawk it up a little". The 10% and 5% components of the CO NYSE breadth MCO are both above their zero lines giving us a clear buy signal. We have fully broken above the accelerated declining tops line that can be drawn between the October and December highs on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM. With the compression we've had the last couple of weeks any move higher could be quite aggressive. There may be very little time for hesitation points like today. In other words, waiting to buy pullbacks may not turn out to be the right play. Most corrections going forward may be done on an intraday basis similar to the 2005/2006 advance. Tom remembers this period well. With the current spring loaded with the internals, we could see a run-a-way market to the upside now - especially as more and more trend lines are violated. I've known for the last couple of weeks that the underlying tone of the market was bullish. I think back to January 23rd when we had our "key" reversal and for the market to hold and maintain a trading range after that debacle told me alot. Everything in the market is now in sync - we may (excuse me for saying so) be looking at the most important rally of the last 5 years and coming off a 9 month low to boot and perhaps the first quadrant to the upside of an extended 4 year cycle low. The power should be impressive. The NYAD line is now above its 200 EMA. Snort - Rip it.
Mindy Lou came to me and said "Daddy Bull, the board is quiet tonight - let's squawk it up a little". The 10% and 5% components of the CO NYSE breadth MCO are both above their zero lines giving us a clear buy signal. We have fully broken above the accelerated declining tops line that can be drawn between the October and December highs on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM. With the compression we've had the last couple of weeks any move higher could be quite aggressive. There may be very little time for hesitation points like today. In other words, waiting to buy pullbacks may not turn out to be the right play. Most corrections going forward may be done on an intraday basis similar to the 2005/2006 advance. Tom remembers this period well. With the current spring loaded with the internals, we could see a run-a-way market to the upside now - especially as more and more trend lines are violated. I've known for the last couple of weeks that the underlying tone of the market was bullish. I think back to January 23rd when we had our "key" reversal and for the market to hold and maintain a trading range after that debacle told me alot. Everything in the market is now in sync - we may (excuse me for saying so) be looking at the most important rally of the last 5 years and coming off a 9 month low to boot and perhaps the first quadrant to the upside of an extended 4 year cycle low. The power should be impressive. The NYAD line is now above its 200 EMA. Snort - Rip it.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If the CO NYSE breadth MCO initiation thrusts off the January lows up to +80 can be taken out we'll have enough energy to move above last summer highs. IMHO we have had a major bottom with a 1.70 Open 10 reading last month and we have a MCSUM positive bullish divergence to work with this bottom - the last time this happened was in the early 1940s. And a lot of Fe4rdinands' friends know what happened after that. Think longer term my friends. Be right and sit tight. The MCO structures are so strong right now - much like the spring of 2003. The bottom line is that everything is now in place for a true center point 3rd wave to the upside. Now you all knew I'd bring that wave up again. Rip it.
If the CO NYSE breadth MCO initiation thrusts off the January lows up to +80 can be taken out we'll have enough energy to move above last summer highs. IMHO we have had a major bottom with a 1.70 Open 10 reading last month and we have a MCSUM positive bullish divergence to work with this bottom - the last time this happened was in the early 1940s. And a lot of Fe4rdinands' friends know what happened after that. Think longer term my friends. Be right and sit tight. The MCO structures are so strong right now - much like the spring of 2003. The bottom line is that everything is now in place for a true center point 3rd wave to the upside. Now you all knew I'd bring that wave up again. Rip it.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
It's important to observe how far the NYAD is from the 10% trend and the distance between the 10% trend and the 5% trend. You should be concerned when you have a change in the trend of money flow and the only verifiable way that you will know that the trend has changed is not only when the NYAD moves down below both of these EMAs, but only when the 10% trend (19 day EMA) moves below the 5% trend (39 day EMA) is when you will know that the trend has changed from up to down. Currently the reverse is in the process of happening. Money flow is entering the market with good post gap expansion on the MCSUMs. It's just a matter of time now before the ratio adjusted NYAD breaks to new highs, and when it does, Elliott Wave 3 of Primary degree will run. Another thought is that as interest rates continue to move lower from here, margin interest should continue to be attractive adding further fuel for the current equity market's uptrend. Rip it.
It's important to observe how far the NYAD is from the 10% trend and the distance between the 10% trend and the 5% trend. You should be concerned when you have a change in the trend of money flow and the only verifiable way that you will know that the trend has changed is not only when the NYAD moves down below both of these EMAs, but only when the 10% trend (19 day EMA) moves below the 5% trend (39 day EMA) is when you will know that the trend has changed from up to down. Currently the reverse is in the process of happening. Money flow is entering the market with good post gap expansion on the MCSUMs. It's just a matter of time now before the ratio adjusted NYAD breaks to new highs, and when it does, Elliott Wave 3 of Primary degree will run. Another thought is that as interest rates continue to move lower from here, margin interest should continue to be attractive adding further fuel for the current equity market's uptrend. Rip it.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Breadth leads price in most situations. Breadth is money flow - most folks who watch the Dow as their proxy keep the Dow flat to lower while the rest of the market rises is how bull markets advance. The broad market is leading and as long as this relationship remains buy the dips. These same folks who are watching the Dow will later play catch up once the Dow, itself, starts to olay catch up with the troops. If we do top out in the NYAD at the same time price does, which was the previous situation, it would only be another rest of the longer term trend. As a bullish reminder there has never been a major price top without the NYAD first providing divergence of some kind first like in 1999-2000. So as long as the NYAD continues to move higher and higher so will price and the longer it does the longer the advance will run. The A/D data is raw, applying EMAs give you the general "pulse" of this same line, the MCO gives you the internal energy (or distance) between these two EMAs on a trend basis, and the MCSUM tells you if these same EMAs are bullish or bearish configurations in relation to the A/D line itself. Using MCO and MCSUM without the context of the A/D line is like using the RSI without a price pattern to measure. The growth area is currently leading the value area and this may confirm longevity to the current advance. The trend is up; price wise, breadth wise, volume wise - and until that changes roll with the money flow.
Breadth leads price in most situations. Breadth is money flow - most folks who watch the Dow as their proxy keep the Dow flat to lower while the rest of the market rises is how bull markets advance. The broad market is leading and as long as this relationship remains buy the dips. These same folks who are watching the Dow will later play catch up once the Dow, itself, starts to olay catch up with the troops. If we do top out in the NYAD at the same time price does, which was the previous situation, it would only be another rest of the longer term trend. As a bullish reminder there has never been a major price top without the NYAD first providing divergence of some kind first like in 1999-2000. So as long as the NYAD continues to move higher and higher so will price and the longer it does the longer the advance will run. The A/D data is raw, applying EMAs give you the general "pulse" of this same line, the MCO gives you the internal energy (or distance) between these two EMAs on a trend basis, and the MCSUM tells you if these same EMAs are bullish or bearish configurations in relation to the A/D line itself. Using MCO and MCSUM without the context of the A/D line is like using the RSI without a price pattern to measure. The growth area is currently leading the value area and this may confirm longevity to the current advance. The trend is up; price wise, breadth wise, volume wise - and until that changes roll with the money flow.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree,
I understand your view on this and definitely think it is better than "buy-n-hold", but to take advantage of this method, doesn't it require a rather large monetary outlay and usually several month position stance?
Birchtree,
I understand your view on this and definitely think it is better than "buy-n-hold", but to take advantage of this method, doesn't it require a rather large monetary outlay and usually several month position stance?
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I am your quintessential buy and holder with a contrarian stripe. I absolutely hate to sell anything unless there are other more favorable opportunities presented during times of sacrifice and pain. I started buying my agriculture commodity stocks back at the bottoms of October 2002 and March 2003 and continued to DCA into them until February 2007. Now I am in the process of peeling off profits to buy other unloved issues. I recently gave back via devaluation $300K in my oceanic account during the latest correction but have already gotten close to $200K back in appreciation. Be right and sit tight. A multi-year bull market needs corrections to reinvigorate itself. And it certainly takes creativity to stay long. It is far easier to make money in a secular than cyclical bull market. Buy and hold works if stocks are going to rise steadily for several years. The NYA is probably going to blow through 9500 very quickly here. Buying participation remains longer term bullish.
I am your quintessential buy and holder with a contrarian stripe. I absolutely hate to sell anything unless there are other more favorable opportunities presented during times of sacrifice and pain. I started buying my agriculture commodity stocks back at the bottoms of October 2002 and March 2003 and continued to DCA into them until February 2007. Now I am in the process of peeling off profits to buy other unloved issues. I recently gave back via devaluation $300K in my oceanic account during the latest correction but have already gotten close to $200K back in appreciation. Be right and sit tight. A multi-year bull market needs corrections to reinvigorate itself. And it certainly takes creativity to stay long. It is far easier to make money in a secular than cyclical bull market. Buy and hold works if stocks are going to rise steadily for several years. The NYA is probably going to blow through 9500 very quickly here. Buying participation remains longer term bullish.
caymanbrac12
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 9
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I did a little shorting today and actually picked a decent fund - the F fund for the Tsp. It seems to have been a while that they have been working in concert so not feeling to bad.
Going to Tuscany tomorrow and a really good friend got me a chance to tour the Ferrari factory at Maranello so even though I would rather do it in the spring I will take what I can get. Maybe ol Michael Schumacher will be there or Kimi Rikkonen will be there who knows I might get lucky and meet Schumacher who was making more than Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan something like 90-100m/yr. I guess good at racing cars doesn't pay too bad. Formula 1 is not too bad a way to make a living and even the best drivers in America can't seem to cut it even Michael Andretti couldn't keep up with the brilliant race car drive Brazilian Ayrton Senna who died tragically in a racing incident in Italy. They put these European kids in go carts when they are like 4 years old - unfortunately we don't have a program like that here. In my opinion F1 is the cream of the crop especially based on pay but I love all racing -Nascar,Champ Car, IRL you name it.
By the by I wouldn't hold my breath tomorrow with all the gov't data coming out but good luck all the same.
I did a little shorting today and actually picked a decent fund - the F fund for the Tsp. It seems to have been a while that they have been working in concert so not feeling to bad.
Going to Tuscany tomorrow and a really good friend got me a chance to tour the Ferrari factory at Maranello so even though I would rather do it in the spring I will take what I can get. Maybe ol Michael Schumacher will be there or Kimi Rikkonen will be there who knows I might get lucky and meet Schumacher who was making more than Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan something like 90-100m/yr. I guess good at racing cars doesn't pay too bad. Formula 1 is not too bad a way to make a living and even the best drivers in America can't seem to cut it even Michael Andretti couldn't keep up with the brilliant race car drive Brazilian Ayrton Senna who died tragically in a racing incident in Italy. They put these European kids in go carts when they are like 4 years old - unfortunately we don't have a program like that here. In my opinion F1 is the cream of the crop especially based on pay but I love all racing -Nascar,Champ Car, IRL you name it.
By the by I wouldn't hold my breath tomorrow with all the gov't data coming out but good luck all the same.
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